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Winter Storm Threats (5 days and beyond)


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2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

If you are looking for the EC: issue on the Ec end, it's all sources for it public and private with the 00z run. 

Those crazy Lymies with their love of mystery novels I guess. :)

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I could be dead in my grave and I would still head slap you 

Staring down a good appetizer tomorrow into Saturday up here: ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .Colder air will return to northern New England on Friday as low p

This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of e

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This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of energy to dive down on backside. The -nao will block in the 50/50 low providing the cold air and allowing things to slow down.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8036000.png.11f18112fc321b152cfb234bf3ebba6a.png

Looking at it from H5, Main player to me is that 50/50 low and +pna how fast the 50/50 low moves out gives room for this to turn the corner. if it slower to move out, it can chear or crush the system to the south. How amplified the +pna is will allow this to slow and turn the corner. Slower to move out and it compresses the flow causing the disturbances to shear out and dive further to the south. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8111600.png.855609414a808a08a42d7086c549db63.png

Secondly, how much energy breaks off from the storm system going up and over the pna ridge that crashes into northwest Canada. This piece of energy goes around PNA ridge then starts to dive south. Third, there is another piece of energy that breaks off a system further north that dives down just behind the second piece of energy. Since the system is out over the Pacific currently, it may not be sampled correctly. Thus, models may be wrong with splitting the energy and or wrong with strength of each. These pieces of energy are very close to each other. They can limit the ability to form a bigger storm as they act as kickers to bring a progressive nature. On the other hand, if we slow down the pattern enough and kick the 50/50 low a bit further north, these can phase to create a bigger system. gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-7982000.png.fe0df7dba7b5f719351a9f4d28f44ef6.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8046800.png.f106524dcab437b0305ab1a5abf13e66.png

Can see from picture above how if we amplify the ridge out west, the nao may slowdown these disturbances to allow the northern one to drop into the southern energy. This is all assuming models are correct with splitting off energy and strength.

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26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of energy to dive down on backside. The -nao will block in the 50/50 low providing the cold air and allowing things to slow down.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8036000.png.11f18112fc321b152cfb234bf3ebba6a.png

Looking at it from H5, Main player to me is that 50/50 low and +pna how fast the 50/50 low moves out gives room for this to turn the corner. if it slower to move out, it can chear or crush the system to the south. How amplified the +pna is will allow this to slow and turn the corner. Slower to move out and it compresses the flow causing the disturbances to shear out and dive further to the south. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8111600.png.855609414a808a08a42d7086c549db63.png

Secondly, how much energy breaks off from the storm system going up and over the pna ridge that crashes into northwest Canada. This piece of energy goes around PNA ridge then starts to dive south. Third, there is another piece of energy that breaks off a system further north that dives down just behind the second piece of energy. Since the system is out over the Pacific currently, it may not be sampled correctly. Thus, models may be wrong with splitting the energy and or wrong with strength of each. These pieces of energy are very close to each other. They can limit the ability to form a bigger storm as they act as kickers to bring a progressive nature. On the other hand, if we slow down the pattern enough and kick the 50/50 low a bit further north, these can phase to create a bigger system. gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-7982000.png.fe0df7dba7b5f719351a9f4d28f44ef6.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-8046800.png.f106524dcab437b0305ab1a5abf13e66.png

Can see from picture above how if we amplify the ridge out west, the nao may slowdown these disturbances to allow the northern one to drop into the southern energy. This is all assuming models are correct with splitting off energy and strength.

Yes it is the GEFS, but the EPS & GEPS have it too.  You want a -NAO and you want that -NAO to relax (or you get sheared other things being equal).  I still would like to see the GGEM to come on board. That being said, all the cold weather prior one is not going to lose as much snow to a warm ground as one could this time of year.  The sun angle sucks, so it won't matter.  nao.sprd2.gif.a08f0d70c1a0a98a26cd3fa513eff8a4.gif

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7 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

Yes it is the GEFS, but the EPS & GEPS have it too.  You want a -NAO and you want that -NAO to relax (or you get sheared other things being equal).  I still would like to see the GGEM to come on board. That being said, all the cold weather prior one is not going to lose as much snow to a warm ground as one could this time of year.  The sun angle sucks, so it won't matter.  nao.sprd2.gif.a08f0d70c1a0a98a26cd3fa513eff8a4.gif

Yup. Better to have this in late November then early smarch 

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6 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Ukie looks rather aggressive with this.  Pivotal maps updating now.

Looked like 12z GFS was a clunker for our area- things get started much further north this go around. Lots of flip flopping still 

oops didn’t see your post above Brian sorry for the redundancy. Trying to “work” as well.

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31 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Ukie looks rather aggressive with this.  Pivotal maps updating now.

yes a foot plus in New England. Trenton area the SW snow edge on the Pivotal map.

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9 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I don't want to sound like the weenie that I am, but if the shortwave travels just south of us like the GFS shows it will snow towards the city. These types of potent shortwaves can surprise, and modeling for them is generally complete crap. If it trends N as we get close then forget about it 

I’m getting fairly confident that we all see our first flakes Sunday into Monday 

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