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Winter Storm Threats (5 days and beyond)


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I could be dead in my grave and I would still head slap you 

Staring down a good appetizer tomorrow into Saturday up here: ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .Colder air will return to northern New England on Friday as low p

This is a pretty textbook mid atl early season snow setup if we can get some amplitude in the pattern. You have a +pna/-nao couplet. How stout the +pna is will amplify the pattern to allow pieces of e

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15 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Pretty close to turning the corner, but this would be a Miller B type of event and we know how those go around here 

500hv.conus (4).png

euro relatively strong with clipper for two runs in a row. Moisture starved but could produce flakes in this area.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

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14 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Honestly Icon > euro/GFS combined. Could be a legit clipper threat. Been a while for one of those.

Dang, I just looked at the Euro and it has the bullseye right over mby. That ain't happening, you can be sure of that.

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

I read on another site that NE'ers were talking positively about the EPS for Sun/Mon. How's it look down to PA on the EPS if anyone has them? Thanks.

Here is a freebie meteogram from the euro site. Blue is op, red is control, bars are ens percentiles. A fair signal in the ecens for qpf vs almost no signal in the 00z ens.

ecens.png.b1cbe06c7adc1c89bb271fa3075fbc71.png

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18z icon. Big low northeast of Maine provides cold air/convergence before lifting out. Clipper with good track for our area. Strong low dropping in behind clipper to amplify. Plausible for an early  local snow, but going to take a couple of days to determine strength and sort out details.

icon.gif

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

18z icon. Big low northeast of Maine provides cold air/convergence before lifting out. Clipper with good track for our area. Strong low dropping in behind clipper to amplify. Plausible for an early  local snow, but going to take a couple of days to determine strength and sort out details.

icon.gif

Track seems dependent upon the strength of the NE low. It will trend north of us on guidance

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5 minutes ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

Track seems dependent upon the strength of the NE low. It will trend north of us on guidance

could get sheared out too by mtns and our confluence from that big ULL

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Gfs camp seems deamplified overall, leading to weaker solutions. Euro, reminds deeper, but slowly getting flatter each run.. we’ll see how it plays out, but not trusting the euro... 

Drag Corollary, need the wet bias GGEM on board. Otherwise 2014 is still a long time ago.

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