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Winter Storm and Rain Threats (5 days and beyond)


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I think Tony mentioned this in the long range disc about eps have a better signal tgiving weekend than for earlier in week. To me that is probably the better shot, not saying much right now but atleast we will have (hopefully) an established block in place and possibly 50/50 low. If you remember the tombo golden rules for snow around here, need a good source region of cold established prior to storm. We will atleast have that leading up to it as of now. In 4 days who knows what it will look like 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I think Tony mentioned this in the long range disc about eps have a better signal tgiving weekend than for earlier in week. To me that is probably the better shot, not saying much right now but atleast we will have (hopefully) an established block in place and possibly 50/50 low. If you remember the tombo golden rules for snow around here, need a good source region of cold established prior to storm. We will atleast have that leading up to it as of now. In 4 days who knows what it will look like 

Wouldn’t be shocked if your new place tickles 60 next week as the cutter amps up 

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6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Wouldn’t be shocked if your new place tickles 60 next week as the cutter amps up 

2-3" on the ground in Colebrook, NH looks like on the web cam.   Hoping the warm wave wipes it out.   Got a good bit of grass I didn't get mowed that I'd like to take care of next week.    Then it can pile it up on top.   Have a 52" snow stake that I hope to see buried around March 1.

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13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I feel like this would be a winter storm setup in December...it could still be if that confluence pushed a bit farther SE. As is that's almost a textbook 50/50...looks like the models are splitting off the southern energy and allowing NS push out ahead

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

The 12z euro run yesterday (below) was even better for our area.  Timing is a good for a NE storm, with NAO- relaxing.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Shades of December 2019? I remember we had blocking to start that month with a early season snowstorm for sne. It was mainly white rain for my area as the temps were around 33-34. After that, the blocking broke down and the Pv went ham

Different enso state though? Believe that was nino?

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2 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

12z euro was somewhat close at the end of the run, the first event would probably be an interior threat, but verbatim at 240 there was a clipper threat. Pieces are in place for some potential

If the northern stream dove in quicker, that run would’ve produced IMO.  There is some potential in that timeframe 

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

I was looking through the pictures/screen shots I took last year. I came across a model run from around the same time last year, looks pretty similar eh?

5A6DF7DF-6168-4255-8917-CFCA41E26528.jpeg

C073B587-C01A-4663-8F64-6FEFBDD4BEFB.png

After a torch 19/20 winter and a warm November guessing there was some angst last year. After a period of being weaker, the PV is about where it was last year also.

Screenshot 2021-11-20 at 10-28-58 Graphics produced by IDL - u60n_10_2021_merra2 pdf.png

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9 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Looks like we may have to wait until 2nd week of Dec for any shakeup. Pattern just seems so similar to last year. Wonder if there will be a noreaster rain event around the 5-8th like last year 

Looks like you need to look at the 18z Gfs. This is possibly my most favorite wx map outside of a snowfall map I ever posted.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

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