Rainshadow Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 First a look at last winter: Temperatures December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F Seasonal snowfall: 19.0" (Actual 23.9") Banter - Now For this season. There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts. So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter. Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us. These are off the new 1991-2020 normals: December: 0F (departure) January: 0F (departure) February: +2F (departure) White Christmas: North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe. Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again). Take this outlook to the..... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: First a look at last winter: Temperatures December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F Seasonal snowfall: 19.0" (Actual 23.9") Banter - Now For this season. There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts. So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter. Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us. These are off the new 1991-2020 normals: December: 0F (departure) January: 0F (departure) February: +2F (departure) White Christmas: North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe. Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again). Take this outlook to the..... Nice day! Was overdressed for forecasting and had to shed model layers. Once again Al saved winter. However Tony and I increased our contribution to the wintry appeal. I attribute my improvement to the negative qbo and the 2 by 4 swing thought that Al gave me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 Since I had a 39 on the back nine, I am more optimistic about the winter. Even though Tom the bomb couldn't join us, it ws great time. What a great group of guys we have. Happy holidays to all. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Harbourton said: Since I had a 39 on the back nine, I am more optimistic about the winter. Even though Tom the bomb couldn't join us, it ws great time. What a great group of guys we have. Happy holidays to all. Wow 39 on Red 9, that was pretty good and that included the honest par. Where was I? Oh yes I was looking for my ball on the embankment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 57 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Nice day! Was overdressed for forecasting and had to shed model layers. Once again Al saved winter. However Tony and I increased our contribution to the wintry appeal. I attribute my improvement to the negative qbo and the 2 by 4 swing thought that Al gave me. Good thing it was a swing thought and not an actual 2 by 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 16 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: First a look at last winter: Temperatures December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F Seasonal snowfall: 19.0" (Actual 23.9") Banter - Now For this season. There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts. So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter. Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us. These are off the new 1991-2020 normals: December: 0F (departure) January: 0F (departure) February: +2F (departure) White Christmas: North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe. Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again). Take this outlook to the..... Are the temperature departures with respect to the new norms or the not-so-new norms? If it's the new norms, okay. If it's the other, yahoo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Will there be a new "The over the ledge tracker thread"? @tombo82685 It really did save last winter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Qtown Snow said: Will there be a new "The over the ledge tracker thread"? @tombo82685 It really did save last winter Yes sir 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 23 hours ago, snowlurker said: Are the temperature departures with respect to the new norms or the not-so-new norms? If it's the new norms, okay. If it's the other, yahoo! The not so new norms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: The not so new norms. Can't complain about Jaws, doubt the previous ownership would have the new normals in play by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Can't complain about Jaws, doubt the previous ownership would have the new normals in play by now. Based on the appearance of the club house, it would have been 1961-1990 norms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 29 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: Based on the appearance of the club house, it would have been 1961-1990 norms. If its a cold winter, we may need to invoke the prior ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 On 11/6/2021 at 10:59 AM, DebShadow23.0 said: Based on the appearance of the club house, it would have been 1961-1990 norms. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2021 I had a chance to golf with Tom today before he heads to the Great Forever White North. We made a couple of additions to the original outlook and ran en ensemble snowfall model. I blame Tony for golfing the day after his second J&J vaccine shot. Additions: PHL will have two (2) single number lows this season. PHL will have one day Dec-Feb with a max temp greater than 65F. Snowfall for the season 16"... 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted December 12, 2021 Report Share Posted December 12, 2021 On 11/17/2021 at 4:01 PM, DebShadow23.0 said: I had a chance to golf with Tom today before he heads to the Great Forever White North. We made a couple of additions to the original outlook and ran en ensemble snowfall model. I blame Tony for golfing the day after his second J&J vaccine shot. Additions: PHL will have two (2) single number lows this season. PHL will have one day Dec-Feb with a max temp greater than 65F. Snowfall for the season 16"... 2 65+ days already, has Tony done it again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Chubbs said: 2 65+ days already, has Tony done it again? That Tony.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 18, 2021 Report Share Posted December 18, 2021 The end of December early January have a shot based on teleconnections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2021 17 hours ago, Harbourton said: The end of December early January have a shot based on teleconnections. When we said White Christmas north, we meant Lowville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 December 😡🤬 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2021 Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 February will rock!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 11/4/2021 at 3:59 PM, DebShadow23.0 said: First a look at last winter: Temperatures December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F Seasonal snowfall: 19.0" (Actual 23.9") Banter - Now For this season. There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts. So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter. Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us. These are off the new 1991-2020 normals: December: 0F (departure) January: 0F (departure) February: +2F (departure) White Christmas: North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe. Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again). Take this outlook to the..... December departure not going to work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said: December departure not going to work. Better than the Farmers Almanac which was 4F below normal for Dec in the Atlantic corridor (mid-Atlantic). Dec 18-28 snowy periods, 29-31 snowstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 hours ago, Chubbs said: Better than the Farmers Almanac which was 4F below normal for Dec in the Atlantic corridor (mid-Atlantic). Dec 18-28 snowy periods, 29-31 snowstorm. We got that going for us. Was 1784-1785 the last winter the Farmers Almanac did not outlook a cold/snowy winter? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted December 29, 2021 Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said: We got that going for us. Was 1784-1785 the last winter the Farmers Almanac did not outlook a cold/snowy winter? Almanac has -6F for Jan, like where we sit going in 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2021 6 hours ago, Chubbs said: Almanac has -6F for Jan, like where we sit going in 😂 Having 0F makes us sound like geniuses by comparison. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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