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(Banter) The ACT 2021-22 Winter Outlook (Banter), AL Saves The Winter Yet Again. Tony & Tom Addendum, DebShadow Sinks The Winter. :(

Rainshadow

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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First a look at last winter:

Temperatures

December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F

January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F

February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0"  (Actual 23.9")

 

Banter - Now For this season.  There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts.  So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter.  Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us.  These are off the new 1991-2020 normals:

December:  0F (departure)

January:      0F (departure) 

February:   +2F (departure)

White Christmas:  North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe.

Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again).

Take this outlook to the.....

 

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Chubbs

Chubbs

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28 minutes ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

First a look at last winter:

Temperatures

December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F

January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F

February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0"  (Actual 23.9")

 

Banter - Now For this season.  There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts.  So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter.  Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us.  These are off the new 1991-2020 normals:

December:  0F (departure)

January:      0F (departure) 

February:   +2F (departure)

White Christmas:  North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe.

Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again).

Take this outlook to the.....

 

Nice day! Was overdressed for forecasting and had to shed model layers. Once again Al saved winter. However Tony and I increased our contribution to the wintry appeal. I attribute my improvement to the negative qbo and the 2 by 4 swing thought that Al gave me.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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15 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

Since I had a 39 on the back nine, I am more optimistic about the winter. Even though Tom the bomb couldn't join us, it ws  great time.      What a great group of guys we have. Happy holidays to all.

Wow 39 on Red 9, that was pretty good and that included the honest par. Where was I? Oh yes I was looking for my ball on the embankment.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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57 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Nice day! Was overdressed for forecasting and had to shed model layers. Once again Al saved winter. However Tony and I increased our contribution to the wintry appeal. I attribute my improvement to the negative qbo and the 2 by 4 swing thought that Al gave me.

Good thing it was a swing thought and not an actual 2 by 4.

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snowlurker

snowlurker

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16 hours ago, DebShadow23.0 said:

First a look at last winter:

Temperatures

December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F

January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F

February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0"  (Actual 23.9")

 

Banter - Now For this season.  There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts.  So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter.  Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us.  These are off the new 1991-2020 normals:

December:  0F (departure)

January:      0F (departure) 

February:   +2F (departure)

White Christmas:  North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe.

Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again).

Take this outlook to the.....

 

Are the temperature departures with respect to the new norms or the not-so-new norms? 

If it's the new norms, okay. If it's the other, yahoo!

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to (Banter) The ACT 2021-22 Winter Outlook (Banter), AL Saves The Winter Yet Again. Tony & Tom Addendum, DebShadow Sinks The Winter. :(
Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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I had a chance to golf with Tom today before he heads to the Great Forever White North.  We made a couple of additions to the original outlook and ran en ensemble snowfall model.  I blame Tony for golfing the day after his second J&J vaccine shot.

Additions:

PHL will have two (2) single number lows this season.

PHL will have one day Dec-Feb with a max temp greater than 65F.

Snowfall for the season 16"...

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Chubbs

Chubbs

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On 11/17/2021 at 4:01 PM, DebShadow23.0 said:

I had a chance to golf with Tom today before he heads to the Great Forever White North.  We made a couple of additions to the original outlook and ran en ensemble snowfall model.  I blame Tony for golfing the day after his second J&J vaccine shot.

Additions:

PHL will have two (2) single number lows this season.

PHL will have one day Dec-Feb with a max temp greater than 65F.

Snowfall for the season 16"...

2 65+ days already, has Tony done it again?

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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On 11/4/2021 at 3:59 PM, DebShadow23.0 said:

First a look at last winter:

Temperatures

December: +1.3F....Actual +1.2F

January +1.7F.....Actual +2.7F

February +1.7F....Actual -1.5F

Seasonal snowfall: 19.0"  (Actual 23.9")

 

Banter - Now For this season.  There is some similarity between this fall and last fall and 2020-21 might make some analog cuts.  So on probably as nice as it can get for golfing in the 40s (at the start), the A(l), C(harlie) & T(ony) forecast team wracked their brains and their putters to come up with this (Banter) outlook for this winter.  Heck we do better than the Farmer's Almanac. So we have that going for us.  These are off the new 1991-2020 normals:

December:  0F (departure)

January:      0F (departure) 

February:   +2F (departure)

White Christmas:  North Of Philadelphia. The man walking his dog on White 7 upset the time/space continuum so we can't say how north is north, although Lowville is safe.

Snowfall: 22.0" with a big miss very close to VAY (sounds good for north again).

Take this outlook to the.....

 

December departure not going to work.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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10 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Better than the Farmers Almanac which was 4F below normal for Dec in the Atlantic corridor (mid-Atlantic). Dec 18-28 snowy periods, 29-31 snowstorm.

We got that going for us.  Was 1784-1785 the last winter the Farmers Almanac did not outlook a cold/snowy winter?

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