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34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not a fan of that look to start December with the lower hgts in Ak. The ridge out west might prevent it from being a major puke fest even for your new location 

Yea, you can def see how that could get ugly if high lat blocking fails or that feature gets stronger in goa. If you could push it a bit further west that would be golden

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Starting nov 1, will start the annual weekly updates for winter time 

week 1 +pna/+ao/neutral nao and epo. Below normal hgts over us  week 2 +ao/+nao/+epo/-pna. Above normal hgts over us, zonal flow across country  week 3 weak +pna and -nao/neutral epo and ao.

week 1 -ao/-nao/+epo/+pna below normal hgts week 2 neutral nao/+ao/+pna/+epo below normal hgts week 3 neutral epo/+ao/+nao/-pna abv normal hgts, se ridge week 4  -epo/+ao/+nao/-pna abv

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week 1 -epo/+pna/-ao/+nao. normal hgts

week 2 neutral epo/ weak +pna/-ao/neutral nao. normal hgts

week 3 +epo/weak +pna/+ao/+nao. normal hgts

week 4 +epo/+ao/+nao/weak +pna. normal hgts

week 5 neutral pna/+ao/neutral epo/ neutral to maybe weak -nao. abv normal hgts

week 6 neutral nao/-epo/ neutral to -pna/+ao. abv norma hgts

temps

week 1 -3

week 2 -3

week 3 -2

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 +1

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -epo/+pna/-ao/+nao. normal hgts

week 2 neutral epo/ weak +pna/-ao/neutral nao. normal hgts

week 3 +epo/weak +pna/+ao/+nao. normal hgts

week 4 +epo/+ao/+nao/weak +pna. normal hgts

week 5 neutral pna/+ao/neutral epo/ neutral to maybe weak -nao. abv normal hgts

week 6 neutral nao/-epo/ neutral to -pna/+ao. abv norma hgts

temps

week 1 -3

week 2 -3

week 3 -2

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 +1

Pretty ugly after week 3.  Not that much stock should be put in them after that anyway but not exactly encouraging 

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Just now, Colin said:

Pretty ugly after week 3.  Not that much stock should be put in them after that anyway but not exactly encouraging 

Yea, they weren't the greatest looking at h5 for tonghts run past week 3. I mean not a torch, but nothing that screamed good cold coming in. 

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, they weren't the greatest looking at h5 for tonghts run past week 3. I mean not a torch, but nothing that screamed good cold coming in. 

We didn't have negative temps on the weeklies at all this time last year.   Winning

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

We didn't have negative temps on the weeklies at all this time last year.   Winning

Yea, but what I'm saying is, given that look, if it holds, I would expect it to warm. But it's in lala land and not worth getting all excited over. 

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Its been backing off the Dec weak strat the past week or two. Now near average in lala land.

 

Never a good thing when you have to rely on that.  Keeping expectations extremely low this year 

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week 1 weak +pna/+epo/-ao/neutral nao. Normal hgts, below normal abe on north

week 2 -ao/----nao/+epo/+pna. Way below normal hgts

week 3 neutral ao/+epo/-nao/+pna. Below normal hgts

week 4 weak -epo/neutral pna/+nao/+ao. normal hgts

week 5 neutral ao/weak -epo/neutral pna/+nao. normal hgts

week 6 +ao/+nao/neutral to maybe +epo/neutral pna. abv normal hgts

temps

week 1 -2

week 2 -3

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 -3

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 weak +pna/+epo/-ao/neutral nao. Normal hgts, below normal abe on north

week 2 -ao/----nao/+epo/+pna. Way below normal hgts

week 3 neutral ao/+epo/-nao/+pna. Below normal hgts

week 4 weak -epo/neutral pna/+nao/+ao. normal hgts

week 5 neutral ao/weak -epo/neutral pna/+nao. normal hgts

week 6 +ao/+nao/neutral to maybe +epo/neutral pna. abv normal hgts

temps

week 1 -2

week 2 -3

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 -3

Not that it matters at all, but I've gotta' ask. How do we get -3 in week 6 with above normal heights? Typo?

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2 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Not that it matters at all, but I've gotta' ask. How do we get -3 in week 6 with above normal heights? Typo?

Believe it's front loaded cold

this the h5 look, def not a cold one 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-0563200.png

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week 1 -ao/----nao/+++epo/+pna. Below normal hgts

week 2 +pna/-nao/+ao/+epo. below normal hgts

week 3 +epo/neutral pna/+nao/+ao. normal hgts

week 4 -epo/+ao/+nao. Normal hgts

week 5 slightly -epo/ neutral pna/+ao/+nao. normal hgts

week 6 slightly -ao/-epo/+nao/neutral pna. normal hgts

 

temps

week 1 -3

week 2 -2

week 3 -2

week 4 -4

week 5 -3

week 6 -2

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1 hour ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

The indices post week 2 don’t seem to indicate persistent below normal. Am I missing something?

4-5-6 -epo good signal for cold to enter US but generally starts out west or in plains. I agree though, looking at h5 7 day mean didn’t seem to go with my thoughts for temps. 

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There certainly seems to be a ton of doom and gloom out there regarding December may be wasted. While it is a concern, I think we need to let it play out. Much is being made of the MJO possibly getting stuck in phase 6 for December which is why the negativity about it being mild. As always let’s watch it unfold and hope that we can at least salvage some part of the month that’s cold and snowy.

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week 1 +epo/-ao/-nao/+pna. Below normal hgts

week 2 +epo/ neutral pna/+ao/neutral nao. Below normal htgts

week 3 -pna/weak -epo/neutral ao/+nao. neutral hgts, with below normal hgts north of tpk

week 4 -pna/neutral epo/-ao/+nao. abv normal hgts

week 5 neutral nao/weak -epo/-ao/neutral pna/. abv normal hgts

week 6 weak -epo/weak -pna/neutral ao/+nao. normal hgts

 

temps

week 1 -6

week 2 -3

week 3 -2

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 -2

 

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35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +epo/-ao/-nao/+pna. Below normal hgts

week 2 +epo/ neutral pna/+ao/neutral nao. Below normal htgts

week 3 -pna/weak -epo/neutral ao/+nao. neutral hgts, with below normal hgts north of tpk

week 4 -pna/neutral epo/-ao/+nao. abv normal hgts

week 5 neutral nao/weak -epo/-ao/neutral pna/. abv normal hgts

week 6 weak -epo/weak -pna/neutral ao/+nao. normal hgts

 

temps

week 1 -6

week 2 -3

week 3 -2

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 -2

 

Euro losing its cold look as we go out in time. Makes sense based on forecasted indices…

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