tombo82685 Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Starting nov 1, will start the annual weekly updates for winter time 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 week 1 +pna/+ao/neutral nao and epo. Below normal hgts over us week 2 +ao/+nao/+epo/-pna. Above normal hgts over us, zonal flow across country week 3 weak +pna and -nao/neutral epo and ao. Abv normal hgts, but on periphery of it. Normal hgts south of area, abv our area and north. Bit more meridonal flow bringing colder air in week 4 weak +pna/ -ao/weak -epo/-nao/. Normal hgts, with below normal hgts in great lakes week 5 +pna/-ao/-nao/-epo. Below normal hgts over us week 6 neutral ao and nao/ +pna/-epo. Normal hgts over us, below normal north of i90 in ny state temps week 1 -6 week 2 +1 week 3 +1 week 4 0 week 5 -1 week 6 -2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 1, 2021 Report Share Posted November 1, 2021 First! near normal weeks 2-6 would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 week 1 weak +pna/+ao/+nao/+epo. Zonal flow, abv normal hgts week 2 +ao/+nao/+pna/-epo. meridonal flow, below normal hgts week 3 +pna/-epo/neutral ao/-nao. normal hgts (below normal over lakes), meridonal flow week 4 +pna/-epo/weak -nao/neutral AO. Normal hgts, meridonal flow week 5 neutral ao & nao/ +pna/-epo. Meridonal flow, normal hgts week 6 smoothed look on pna/ao/nao/epo. Flow a bit more zonalish, but still some meridonal kink to it. Normal hgts temps week 1 +4 week 2 -2 week 3 -2 week 4 -2 week 5 -1 week 6 -1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2021 Euro monthlies, looks like a front loaded winter which follows standard nina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 6, 2021 Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 2 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Euro monthlies, looks like a front loaded winter which follows standard nina Overall for DJF an improvement vs the October run with more Arctic/EPO ridging (Nov run top and Oct bottom below). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Overall for DJF an improvement vs the October run with more Arctic/EPO ridging (Nov run top and Oct bottom below). That could be swayed though due to better looking Dec. would have to compare each month. I’ll do so tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 6, 2021 20 hours ago, tombo82685 said: That could be swayed though due to better looking Dec. would have to compare each month. I’ll do so tomorrow. Looked like every month got worse from oct run except dec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 14 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Looked like every month got worse from oct run except dec I'll take it. The Dec improvement had to be larger than the losses in the other months. Big picture - models continue to hint at more blocking and/or better Pacific than they did going into last year. We'll see if that buys us a cup of coffee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chubbs said: I'll take it. The Dec improvement had to be larger than the losses in the other months. Big picture - models continue to hint at more blocking and/or better Pacific than they did going into last year. We'll see if that buys us a cup of coffee. Yea Dec was a good flip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yea Dec was a good flip Any images for the visual learners? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 hours ago, susqushawn said: Any images for the visual learners? went from this, textbook nina look with Aleutian ridge, hinting at -pna and a bit of se ridge, with cold pool in nw canada to this, more ridging out west, more high lat blocking, and hints of poleward epo ridge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Otoh, the CFS is going the other way, as in positive for DJF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Just now, Mitchnick said: Otoh, the CFS is going the other way, as in positive for DJF. Positive what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Positive what? On average, at or below normal temps with AN precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 I'll add, different Cfs links show different maps but the trend over the past 2 or 3 weeks has been to get cooler and wetter regardless of the link you choose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 52 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: I'll add, different Cfs links show different maps but the trend over the past 2 or 3 weeks has been to get cooler and wetter regardless of the link you choose. So far the Canadian, euro and CFS have all gotten better in Nov. Rather go that way than the other. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 48 minutes ago, Chubbs said: So far the Canadian, euro and CFS have all gotten better in Nov. Rather go that way than the other. I mean I know its good that they trended better, but I put 0 stock in those seasonal outlooks or weekly ones. Just to many unknown variables models won't see that far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I mean I know its good that they trended better, but I put 0 stock in those seasonal outlooks or weekly ones. Just to many unknown variables models won't see that far out Thats why I feel better about the trend than any of the details. Helps our odds by a small amount. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Weeklies looks cold mid month but pattern breaks down to start December as it goes back to that GOA look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies looks cold mid month but pattern breaks down to start December as it goes back to that GOA look Looks like a wash to me. Lost the pacific look a bit, but def more high lat blocking in the AO/NAO domains 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies looks cold mid month but pattern breaks down to start December as it goes back to that GOA look Sounds great. If it’s not going to snow bring on the warmth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 week 1: +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Abv normal hgts week 2: neutral pna and epo/ -ao/-nao. Below normal hgts week 3: +pna/neutral epo/-ao/-nao. Below normal hgts week 4: weak +pna/+epo/-ao/-nao. normal hgts, aome meridonal flow but due to more presence of goa low flattens hgts out week 5: +pna/neutral epo/-ao/-nao. normal hgts, bit more moeridonal flow as ridge out west a bit stronger weak +pna/weak -epo/neutral ao and nao. Normal hgts temps week 1 +4 week 2 -3 week 3 -2 week 4 -2 week 5 -1 week 6 -2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 fwiw, every week held or got colder except for week 5 when there was a bit more pac flow thrown into pattern 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 15 hours ago, tombo82685 said: Looks like a wash to me. Lost the pacific look a bit, but def more high lat blocking in the AO/NAO domains Not a fan of that look to start December with the lower hgts in Ak. The ridge out west might prevent it from being a major puke fest even for your new location Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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