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Starting nov 1, will start the annual weekly updates for winter time 

week 1 +pna/+ao/neutral nao and epo. Below normal hgts over us  week 2 +ao/+nao/+epo/-pna. Above normal hgts over us, zonal flow across country  week 3 weak +pna and -nao/neutral epo and ao.

week 1 -ao/-nao/+epo/+pna below normal hgts week 2 neutral nao/+ao/+pna/+epo below normal hgts week 3 neutral epo/+ao/+nao/-pna abv normal hgts, se ridge week 4  -epo/+ao/+nao/-pna abv

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week 1 +pna/+ao/neutral nao and epo. Below normal hgts over us 

week 2 +ao/+nao/+epo/-pna. Above normal hgts over us, zonal flow across country 

week 3 weak +pna and -nao/neutral epo and ao. Abv normal hgts, but on periphery of it. Normal hgts south of area, abv our area and north. Bit more meridonal flow bringing colder air in 

week 4  weak +pna/ -ao/weak -epo/-nao/. Normal hgts, with below normal hgts in great lakes

week 5 +pna/-ao/-nao/-epo. Below normal hgts over us

week 6 neutral ao and nao/ +pna/-epo. Normal hgts over us, below normal north of i90 in ny state

 

temps

week 1 -6

week 2 +1

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 -1

week 6 -2

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week 1 weak +pna/+ao/+nao/+epo. Zonal flow, abv normal hgts

week 2 +ao/+nao/+pna/-epo. meridonal flow, below normal hgts

week 3 +pna/-epo/neutral ao/-nao. normal hgts (below normal over lakes), meridonal flow

week 4 +pna/-epo/weak -nao/neutral AO. Normal hgts, meridonal flow

week 5 neutral ao & nao/ +pna/-epo. Meridonal flow, normal hgts

week 6 smoothed look on pna/ao/nao/epo. Flow a bit more zonalish, but still some meridonal kink to it. Normal hgts

temps

week 1 +4

week 2 -2

week 3 -2

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro monthlies, looks like a front loaded winter which follows standard nina

 

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_month_mostrecent-8316800.png

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_month_mostrecent-0995200.png

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_month_mostrecent-3673600.png

Overall for DJF an improvement vs the October run with more Arctic/EPO ridging (Nov run top and Oct bottom below).

 

seasnov.png

seasoct.png

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Overall for DJF an improvement vs the October run with more Arctic/EPO ridging (Nov run top and Oct bottom below).

 

seasnov.png

seasoct.png

That could be swayed though due to better looking Dec. would have to compare each month. I’ll do so tomorrow. 

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20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That could be swayed though due to better looking Dec. would have to compare each month. I’ll do so tomorrow. 

Looked like every month got worse from oct run except dec

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looked like every month got worse from oct run except dec

I'll take it. The Dec improvement had to be larger than the losses in the other months. Big picture - models continue to hint at more blocking and/or better Pacific than they did going into last year. We'll see if that buys us a cup of coffee.

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18 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I'll take it. The Dec improvement had to be larger than the losses in the other months. Big picture - models continue to hint at more blocking and/or better Pacific than they did going into last year. We'll see if that buys us a cup of coffee.

Yea Dec was a good flip 

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2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Any images for the visual learners?

went from this, textbook nina look with Aleutian ridge, hinting at -pna and a bit of se ridge, with cold pool in nw canada

485558299_ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_month_mostrecent-8316800(1).png.0728d13bbb6484d913bbb491b3755756.png

to this, more ridging out west, more high lat blocking, and hints of poleward epo ridge 

ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_month_mostrecent-8316800.png.a64de9aca17675865147f49e6fbc7175.png

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52 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I'll add, different  Cfs links show different maps but the trend over the past 2 or 3 weeks has been to get cooler and wetter regardless of the link you choose.

So far the Canadian, euro and CFS have all gotten better in Nov.  Rather go that way than the other.

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48 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

So far the Canadian, euro and CFS have all gotten better in Nov.  Rather go that way than the other.

I mean I know its good that they trended better, but I put 0 stock in those seasonal outlooks or weekly ones. Just to many unknown variables models won't see that far out 

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I mean I know its good that they trended better, but I put 0 stock in those seasonal outlooks or weekly ones. Just to many unknown variables models won't see that far out 

Thats why I feel better about the trend than any of the details. Helps our odds by a small amount.

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies looks cold mid month but pattern breaks down to start December as it goes back to that GOA look 

Looks like a wash to me. Lost the pacific look a bit, but def more high lat blocking in the AO/NAO domains

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies looks cold mid month but pattern breaks down to start December as it goes back to that GOA look 

Sounds great.  If it’s not going to snow bring on the warmth 

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week 1: +pna/+epo/+ao/+nao. Abv normal hgts

week 2: neutral pna and epo/ -ao/-nao. Below normal hgts

week 3: +pna/neutral epo/-ao/-nao. Below normal hgts

week 4: weak +pna/+epo/-ao/-nao. normal hgts, aome meridonal flow but due to more presence of goa low flattens hgts out

week 5: +pna/neutral epo/-ao/-nao. normal hgts, bit more moeridonal flow as ridge out west a bit stronger

weak +pna/weak -epo/neutral ao and nao. Normal hgts

 

temps

week 1 +4

week 2 -3

week 3 -2

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 -2

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like a wash to me. Lost the pacific look a bit, but def more high lat blocking in the AO/NAO domains

Not a fan of that look to start December with the lower hgts in Ak. The ridge out west might prevent it from being a major puke fest even for your new location 

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