2021-22 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. Seasonal Events Snowfall Forecast Evaluation Reposted.

[tombo82685]

euro

11/10 12z: .08

11/11 0z: .02

11/11 12z: 0

11/12 0z: .05

11/12 12z: .03

11/13 0z: .09

eps

11/10 12z: .03

11/11 0z: .05

11/11 12z: .01

11/12 0z: .06

11/12 12z: .09

11/13 0z: .1

[Bananashadow]

On 11/10/2021 at 5:51 AM, tombo82685 said:

eps

11/9 12z: .78

11/10 0z: .68

11/10 12z: .92

euro

11/9 12z: .97

11/10 0z: .55

11/10 12z: .91

Looks like 00z run tonight will be the last for this one.  But....we may need a late Sunday/Monday one too if the forecast remains consistent.

[Bananashadow]

On 11/10/2021 at 8:15 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/10 12z: .08

11/11 0z: .02

11/11 12z: 0

11/12 0z: .05

eps

11/10 12z: .03

11/11 0z: .05

11/11 12z: .01

11/12 0z: .06

This one can go thru 12z tomorrow (13th).  I don't see the need for Monday's event as of now.

[Bananashadow]

For the event that just finished, the driest model came in 1st.  Eyeballing it, I can't tell but the UKMET with its 10:1 ratio forecast came in last.  10:1 as in the forecast amount: actual amount that fell. 

[Bananashadow]

My dad used to say if this was snow.  If this was a snow forecast....   Yes a low cutting like that wouldn't be snow, but wow what a qpf overforecast.  Even with more rain falling north and west (they had more north and west), it was still too wet.  If the UKMET wanted to shed its wet qpf bias, well don't go making infomercials with this event.  The GFS "won" by being the driest model.  i wouldn't be doing too mnay victory laps, it is among the wettest for today and wetter than the WEFS which is never a good place to be.

Every forecast was too wet for PHL.

[Bananashadow]

Well another blanket modeling QPF overforecast for PHL. No model was too dry. Kind of hard when PHL traced out. But both ILG & TTN had 0.03", so it is not as if PHL found a pcpn hole.  There was a three way tie for 1st, but I am going to give this one to the operational EC because it had a 0.00" run and neither the GEFS or EPS did (tough for them in this scenario to have every member trace out.  Once again if you are wetter than the WEFS you lose and congrats GGEM on last place prize.

I also did a quick capture of the snowfall forecasts for VT/NH with this event.  FV3 disappointing being that snow happy even with the caveat of the 10:1 ratio.  There was something wanting with every modeling solution.  None captured the Berkshires and most oversold the snow in Vermont.  Did better in New Hamsphire.  TDSGFS, um no measurable in New Jersey.  

[Bananashadow]

A modeling success story for last night as they all stayed under 0.10" cut-off we use for both forecasts and observations (0.01") at PHL.  Anyway looking at snow again well north and west.  This part synoptic scale, part lake effect.  I'd understate it by saying the UKMET did not do well at all. In general there was too much spill over farther east toward us.  Not as much of a ptype faux pas, more of too much qpf. 

 

[Bananashadow]

@tombo82685, can we start the CFP with the 00z run this morning?  (The 16th).  Got the vaccine shot this morning.  Don't feel as bad at this point as I did the first time.  My headache does not feel as bad.  Hopefully tomorrow also.

[tombo82685]

euro

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .23

11/17 0z: .33

11/17 12z: .48

11/18 0z: .18

11/18 12z: .23

eps

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .29

11/17 0z: .24

11/17 12z: .26

11/18 0z: .2

11/18 12z: .15

[Bananashadow]

30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .23

11/17 0z: .33

eps

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .29

11/17 0z: .24

 

Wetter than the WEFS, in trouble......

[Bananashadow]

On 11/17/2021 at 7:35 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .23

11/17 0z: .33

11/17 12z: .48

11/18 0z: .18

eps

11/16 0z: .3

11/16 12z: .29

11/17 0z: .24

 

11/17 12z: .26

11/18 0z: .2

 

Let's make the 12z run today the last one for this one.  We might have to start the next one with the 00z run tonight.

[Bananashadow]

@tombo82685,  let's start the Sunday night CFP with the 00z run this morning (19th).

[Bananashadow]

The overnight 11/18-11/19 event is keeping on with the adage that if you are wetter than the WEFS, your model is in trouble.  PHL had 0.07" Out of 36 model/ensemble forecasts for this event, 35 were too wet for PHL.  I will post the table hopefully later today.

[Bananashadow]

We have had a relatively dry November and none of our precipitation events have involved a low pressure system passing near our area. One event a new low formed pretty far east of us.  So basically cold frontal passages.  Another one on Late Sunday Night/Monday.  So we can tell in November the models don't do CFP well at PHL and pretty much universally too wet.  Add the OP EC (last place this time) with the EPS among the models that don't do this well.  Once again they are both conspicuously absent from a 1st place finish.  With this event, 1st place went to the driest (least wet bias) GFS. This was not a case that it was way wetter north & west. 2nd place went to the WEFS.  You are wetter than the WEFS, you lose.

[tombo82685]

euro

11/19 0z: .17

11/19 12z: .26

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12: .16

11/21 0z: .2

11/21 12z: .14

11/22 0z: .08

eps

11/19 0z:  .14

11/19 12z: .18

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12z: .15

11/21 0z: .2

11/21 12z: .14

11/22 0z: .07

[Bananashadow]

3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/19 0z: .17

11/19 12z: .26

eps

11/19 0z:  .14

11/19 12z: .18

Well if this ends up being drier, the UKMET is off to a better start.  BTW the ICON 00z run last night had 0.42".

[Bananashadow]

On 11/19/2021 at 6:40 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/19 0z: .17

11/19 12z: .26

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12: .16

11/21 0z: .2

eps

11/19 0z:  .14

11/19 12z: .18

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12z: .15

11/21 0z: .2

I think we can go thru 00z/22nd with this one.

[Bananashadow]

On 11/19/2021 at 6:40 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/19 0z: .17

11/19 12z: .26

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12: .16

11/21 0z: .2

11/21 12z: .14

11/22 0z: .08

eps

11/19 0z:  .14

11/19 12z: .18

11/20 0z: .14

11/20 12z: .15

11/21 0z: .2

11/21 12z: .14

11/22 0z: .07

We can start the next event (Thanksgiving night) with the 00z run overnight (00z/23rd).  I am going to go out on a limb and say the driest model/ensemble will come in 1st.

 

[Bananashadow]

Pretty established pattern with these CFP(s) this month.  You are wetter than the GEFs, you lose.  You think it is going to be wet with a surface low pressure system near James Bay, you lose.  So with this go round the UKMET was drier from the start and came in 1st. It divested itself from its wet bias brethren (GGEM) that came in last.  The ICON would not have done well with this event either.  This was a better event for the EC/EPS, but still no 1st place finish.

 

[tombo82685]

euro

11/23 0z: .31

11/23 12z: .17

11/24 0z: .05

11/24 12z: .05

11/25 0z: .27

11/25 12z: .26

eps

11/23 0z: .2

11/23 12z: .15

11/24 0z: .14

11/24 12z: .1

11/25 0z: .19

11/25 12z: .27

[Bananashadow]

On 11/23/2021 at 8:55 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

11/23 0z: .31

11/23 12z: .17

11/24 0z: .05

11/24 12z: .05

eps

11/23 0z: .2

11/23 12z: .15

11/24 0z: .14

11/24 12z: .1

I think we can go thru 00z on the 26th (this evening) with this one.

Plus I am "assuming" an ensemble (hello WEFs) might get us there, can we start the Sunday one with the 12z run today? (25th) First snow sniff.  I will have to keep my eye on Tuesday also. Too soon for that one regardless.

[tombo82685]

euro 

11/25 12z: .09 snow .7

11/26 0z: .02 snow .2

11/26 12z: .08 snow .5

11/27 0z: .04  snow .3

11/27 12z: .03 snow .3

11/28 0z:  .02 snow .1

eps

11/25 12z: .05 snow .4

11/26 0z: .07 snow .3

11/26 12z: .09  snow .6

11/27 0z: .03  snow .3

11/27 12z: .02 snow .2

11/28 0z: .03 snow .2

[Bananashadow]

We've had pretty much non-stop CFP precipitation events this month and the models have been pretty over the top wet.  This is the first one where they were closer.  There was some southern U.S. moisture that made it this far north and the trof itself slightly negative tilted (with a closed low moving thru New England).  The GFS barely averaged too dry while the other models averaged too wet, but not as bad as other CFP events this month.  The 1st place finisher this time was the GGEM, ending a streak of three consecutive last place finishes.  Sounds very NAMmy.  Going from the Penthouse to the basement was the UKMET.  Yes once again the EC family did not have a first place finish.

Tonight's mainly north of us event is a different one, Alberta Clipper.  First look at how the models do with this one.  

 

[Bananashadow]

On 11/25/2021 at 4:50 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro 

11/25 12z: .09 snow .7

11/26 0z: .02 snow .2

11/26 12z: .08 snow .5

11/27 0z: .04  snow .3

eps

11/25 12z: .05 snow .4

11/26 0z: .07 snow .3

11/26 12z: .09  snow .6

11/27 0z: .03  snow .3

00z run right now 00z/28th last one for this event.

[Bananashadow]

I have to make sure nothing comes of the upper trof swinging by tonight/Monday.  But with our clipper it looks like another Costanza bizzaroworld finish with the GFS in first and the Euro in last.  Not for PHL but the GGEM not looking great with its overzealous Norlun trof action.