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2021-22 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 11/28-29 Trace Event. Constanza Bizzaro November Continues As GFS Is 1st & EC Family EPS Is Last.


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On 11/25/2021 at 4:50 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro 

11/25 12z: .09 snow .7

11/26 0z: .02 snow .2

11/26 12z: .08 snow .5

11/27 0z: .04  snow .3

11/27 12z: .03 snow .3

11/28 0z:  .02 snow .1

eps

11/25 12z: .05 snow .4

11/26 0z: .07 snow .3

11/26 12z: .09  snow .6

11/27 0z: .03  snow .3

11/27 12z: .02 snow .2

11/28 0z: .03 snow .2

Thank-you GFS.  Wednesday night event.  Can you catch the 00z/29th Euro run before it disappears to include it?

 

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Tom & I want to thank everyone for all the looks this thread gets. Our plans are to keep the same models/ensembles as last season.  We will see if the UKMET remains available, might force a change

euro 10/27 0z: .82 10/27 12z: .91 10/28 0z: .6 10/28 12z: 1 10/29 0z: .94 eps 10/27 0z: 1.22 10/27 12z: .97 10/28 0z: 1.06 10/28 12z: .94  10/29

I think we can go thru 00z on the 26th (this evening) with this one. Plus I am "assuming" an ensemble (hello WEFs) might get us there, can we start the Sunday one with the 12z run today? (25th) F

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Well I don't know if this is business as usual or a box full of disappointments as far as model performance.

2014 ECMWF was a long time ago.

ECMWF or not (GFS 14"+ of snow for Boston, GGEM Norlun snafu, UKMET Snowengland), the days of a lone model sniffing out a heavier snow scenario continues to not work. 

The Euro family would like November to end, it was not November 2020 for them.  Another last place finish, this time the EPS.  The GFS meanwhile came in 1st (Don't ask Boston). Clipper track was too far north and the Euro last place finish was not a by product of it snowing, but not sticking, but around the local PHL area because it really did not snow at all. If PHL gets flurries today, I will change the snow column to Trace.

 

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  • DebShadow23.0 changed the title to 2021-22 Global Model QPF/Snowfall Evaluation For PHL. 11/28-29 Trace Event. Constanza Bizzaro November Continues As GFS Is 1st & EC Family EPS Is Last.

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