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11/26 - 11/27 Event Modeling Scoreboard in PHL


Bananashadow
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As we get deeper into winter this will thankfully become less of a problem.  Forecast soundings and predicted thicknesses over 546dm in PHL made these model snowfall projections dubious at best.  

 

Tom, Carbon, Monroe and Sussex Counties averaged about an 8:1 ratio, the rest had some non snow and impossible to compute.

 

Actual PHL PCPN 0.95" / Trace of Snow

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

24th:  2.4" / 0.94"  ;  4.9" /  0.84"  ;  1.3" / 0.82" ;  3.9" / 0.95"

25th:  10.3" / 1.29" ;  3.5" / 1.61"  ; 9.2" / 1.44" ; 2.6" / 1.34"

26th:  5.8" / 1.27"  ; 1.4"  / 1.20"

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

24th:  5.5" / 1.48"  ;  6.5" /  1.38"  ;  7.6" / 1.50" ;  7.0" / 1.20"

25th:  7.5" / 1.33" ;  5.3" / 1.26"  ; 6.5" / 1.33"  ; 3.0" / 1.23"

26th:  4.2" / 1.46"  ; 2.3"  / 1.25"

 

GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

24th:  1.06"  ;   0.72"  ;  0.49"

25th:  0.66" ;    0.61"  ;  0.66;  0.70"

26th:  1.11" ;   0.85"

 

I dont have Euro info but judging from Tom's post, I think they had many solutions

around 1 inch.

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As we get deeper into winter this will thankfully become less of a problem.  Forecast soundings and predicted thicknesses over 546dm in PHL made these model snowfall projections dubious at best.  

 

Tom, Carbon, Monroe and Sussex Counties averaged about an 8:1 ratio, the rest had some non snow and impossible to compute.

 

Actual PHL PCPN 0.95" / Trace of Snow

 

NAM (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

24th:  2.4" / 0.94"  ;  4.9" /  0.84"  ;  1.3" / 0.82" ;  3.9" / 0.95"

25th:  10.3" / 1.29" ;  3.5" / 1.61"  ; 9.2" / 1.44" ; 2.6" / 1.34"

26th:  5.8" / 1.27"  ; 1.4"  / 1.20"

 

SREF (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z)

 

24th:  5.5" / 1.48"  ;  6.5" /  1.38"  ;  7.6" / 1.50" ;  7.0" / 1.20"

25th:  7.5" / 1.33" ;  5.3" / 1.26"  ; 6.5" / 1.33"  ; 3.0" / 1.23"

26th:  4.2" / 1.46"  ; 2.3"  / 1.25"

 

GFS (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)

 

24th:  1.06"  ;   0.72"  ;  0.49"

25th:  0.66" ;    0.61"  ;  0.66;  0.70"

26th:  1.11" ;   0.85"

 

I dont have Euro info but judging from Tom's post, I think they had many solutions

around 1 inch.

Yea the euro and it's ens pretty much avg around an inch. Gfs seemed driest of all of them a day or so beforehand.

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