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Temps/Obs/Pcpn/Run-Of-The-Mill Weather Discussion


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Beautiful day on The Pinnacle, Hawk Mountain

Spent the weekend up in Waterville along Pine Creek Gorge. Such beautiful country up there. Leonard Harrison SP was closed due to heavy rains washing out the road in, but the view from the other side

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On 9/15/2021 at 7:53 AM, chescowx said:

As discussed these are the actual NWS COOP un-adjusted actual historical obs for now up to 5 sites across Chester County(also most of my data is a much longer time frame then the above 6 additional decades) for all of the long term Chester County sites - as shown in the main climate sites above these Chester County COOP (most notably the longest running 3 sites) also all move together (as do the above sites) as expected as they were trained NWS COOP observers - they simply paint a different story with generally cooling temps as noted by the trend lines when compared with those sites above. Hard to believe all 5 stations are not accurate

Chesco doesn't have different climate trends than the rest of the region. All the COOP stations share the same biases, since the equipment was standardized.  As an example, something happened at Coatesville1SW in the mid-1940s. Cooled suddenly from close to phl to close to abe.  Note though that other than the mid-40s shift, the year-to-year variation is similar across all three sites. The whole area experiences the same weather and climate trends. The Chesco coop sites by themselves are providing misleading climate trend info. Need to look at all the regional data instead.

coatabephl.png

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On 9/17/2021 at 10:36 AM, Chubbs said:

Chesco doesn't have different climate trends than the rest of the region. All the COOP stations share the same biases, since the equipment was standardized.  As an example, something happened at Coatesville1SW in the mid-1940s. Cooled suddenly from close to phl to close to abe.  Note though that other than the mid-40s shift, the year-to-year variation is similar across all three sites. The whole area experiences the same weather and climate trends. The Chesco coop sites by themselves are providing misleading climate trend info. Need to look at all the regional data instead.

coatabephl.png

With ABE above for the first time we have been able to actually see how the actual data was adjusted. The data you used above for ABE was sourced from the NWS COOP data from the ABE Gas Company from 1912-1938. The ABE airport then took over the official reports through today. So, when I looked at the data in the ABE raw data file I could see where in the daily observations they began to make adjustments (usually chilling down the nigh time lows) to chill down the period - adjustments downward were main for all 27 years between 1912 through 1938....with the largest adjustments were applied between 1912-1930. This adjustment as you can see below where I highlight how the adjustments impacted the trend lines. This allows the pre-ABE airport data to now report significantly cooler and helps amplify the warming trend as we move into the more recent decades. Again no surprises as we have discussed but this is the first time I have been able to quantify the adjustments and see how the data was tweaked. image.png.62095617b0ba3bb879b32394751c6aab.png

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20% chance of rain my a$$.   Pouring.   Can't have one day without rain.    Giraffes in the yard with only their necks exposed.

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7 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

20% chance of rain my a$$.   Pouring.   Can't have one day without rain.    Giraffes in the yard with only their necks exposed.

Always expect the worst. Honestly, the HRDPS Is a good Meso model to use for “worst case scenarios”. Always worth a glance each morning IMO. Had this isolated stuff occurring now 

EA4B1AE7-BF7F-458B-8025-3E9739577814.jpeg.edd14ac2d99e4268b5defac03b67961d.jpeg

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Settling into the perfect pattern FINALLY. What we'd expect for September. Basically boring. That's a good thing. Just one day with rain in the past 8 and likely rain only one day over the next 7.

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3 hours ago, iceman56 said:

.39" of rain for the day.

Just a few miles from you only .04 with a sun shower....the epitome of hit or miss showers...you hit!!

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17 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Beautiful, beautiful day. 

Went out to the outlets last night, saw the most impressive (I think) starling flight I've ever seen. This pic doesn't do it justice

 

20210917_191124.jpg

That must have been the hundreds in the woods next to my house yesterday.  So loud early in the AM, then a black sky as they departed in waves

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