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Winter 2021-22 Outlook Discussion


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Not saying it's correct by any stretch, but an observation. Latest run of the CFS is tripling down on a cold Canada such that the cold overwhelms the Bermuda High for the winter. I guess this is one way in the means to get us on the right side of the mix line. Troublesome, however, that I can't recall that ever happening in a Nina. Lol

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

 

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16 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

 

The Europeans have made a nice add to their strat chart - the model climatology. The ukie below, typically forecasts a weak vortex early in the season. This years forecast is somewhat weaker on average than typical. The euro is similar but the typical euro weakness is shifted later vs the ukie. Like the ukie the euro forecast  follows the same timing trend as model climatology but is somewhat weaker this year. Not sure if Noll's anomoly is vs obs or model climatology.

convert_image-gorax-blue-001-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-58edIF.png

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow23.0 said:

I am seriously thinking about adding up all of the snow the GFS forecasts for PHL for this winter. Triple digits easy.

That would be the winter equivalent of the "GFS forecasts 100°" thread. And probably a lot more active too lol. Come to think of it the Euro would probably end up forecasting more snow over the course of the winter since it tends to be more amped with the patterns. Would be neat to see a comparison.

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I'll happily take my 118.6" average for Coos county, NH.   Last year was a 'bad' year with only 95".   Hoping to see flakes when I go up next month.

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4 hours ago, ACwx said:

That would be the winter equivalent of the "GFS forecasts 100°" thread. And probably a lot more active too lol. Come to think of it the Euro would probably end up forecasting more snow over the course of the winter since it tends to be more amped with the patterns. Would be neat to see a comparison.

Yeah they both do.  Some of it has to do with early/late events falling short of the never 10:1 ratio.  The Euro yes has the too amped solutions.  The GFS used to get away with being right for the wrong reason because of erroneously toasty boundary layer conditions.  Now that it has a cold boundary bias in winter, its triple digits or bust.

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Here is the October temp / winter temp relationship over the past 30 years.  By removing the 1990-91, warm October, warm Winter, the warm relationship weakened again.  It looks like in the what have you done for us lately the cooler October has more meaning than a warmer October.

october.JPG.f168aa9e5ec91d02ef1f0230c13a25ec.JPG

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