Jump to content

Winter 2021-22 Outlook Discussion


Recommended Posts

I was looking back at BWI snowfall records, and to my surprise, BWI did better in moderate Nina's than weak ones. The exception being, of course, 95/96, but even that just missed being a weak moderate event by a tenth or 2 in 2 out of the 5 tri-monthly temps.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

p.s. Thanks Tony for starting the thread on my behalf!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting the autumn thread and the winter thread in the same week is exactly what the doctor ordered to combat this muck we're dealing with outdoors right now.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Happy September everybody. Only 3 full months until December!!!

So are you still flying the coup or did you fall madly in love over the summer with a local that loves heat, humidity, and freezing rain?

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

So are you still flying the coup or did you fall madly in love over the summer with a local that loves heat, humidity, and freezing rain?

Well, I met a woman, she’s Brazilian so she’s used to the heat lol. This has kind of changed the Worcester plans for now, but I definitely plan to chase any snow event in the country that has a chance to dump 2+ feet. While I missed out on a chance to see 40” at BGM I did get to see a 2ft+ event at Dover. I also enjoyed my Colorado trip too even though Estes Park was a bit of a bust. My goal this year is to experience a heavy LES event. Hopefully this is the year I won’t have to chase much besides that

Last time I started a new relationship was the winter of 2013-14… hmmmm
 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Well, I met a woman, she’s Brazilian so she’s used to the heat lol. This has kind of changed the Worcester plans for now, but I definitely plan to chase any snow event in the country that has a chance to dump 2+ feet. While I missed out on a chance to see 40” at BGM I did get to see a 2ft+ event at Dover. I also enjoyed my Colorado trip too even though Estes Park was a bit of a bust. My goal this year is to experience a heavy LES event. Hopefully this is the year I won’t have to chase much besides that

Last time I started a new relationship was the winter of 2013-14… hmmmm
 

 

Happy to hear on both counts. I  was hoping you'd  stick around, to be honest, since weenies need company in their misery.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Enso really setting the stage for a solid Nina by the looks of these 850 anomalies. 

Cfs has been trending toward a moderate event. Not saying it gets there, but Cfs says, at this point, it's definitely on the table. 

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

Enso really setting the stage for a solid Nina by the looks of these 850 anomalies. 

Cfs has been trending toward a moderate event. Not saying it gets there, but Cfs says, at this point, it's definitely on the table. 

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

So we gonna be banking the entire winter on another SSW?

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

So we gonna be banking the entire winter on another SSW?

Since every winter is different, who knows but all things are not equal to last year even if we don't have the same extent of blocking. East Qbo is usually a colder winter, so we've got that going for us I believe. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Obviously just for kicks, but at face value I think I’d take this look.. Looks stormy. Would expect a lot of ice/mix type events with it with that west to east gradient. Lots of cold air locked up JUST to our North

2BEC0ABE-5926-4DF4-891F-FA33C92A5553.png

Lots of low level cold in that with -epo/-ao 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Obviously just for kicks, but at face value I think I’d take this look.. Looks stormy. Would expect a lot of ice/mix type events with it with that west to east gradient. Lots of cold air locked up JUST to our North

2BEC0ABE-5926-4DF4-891F-FA33C92A5553.png

December and February. Great Lakes looks like the winner this winter with cold and stormy track. Typical of Ninas but doubled down  this year if the Euro is close to being right.

 

244903932_seas5_z500a_mon_noram_DEC2021(1).thumb.png.0aabaf0667f9cff3a63947e6b3a517ef.png

seas5_z500a_mon_noram_FEB2022.thumb.png.19de1d6f444cd18a9edf51999974b212.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

December and February. Great Lakes looks like the winner this winter with cold and stormy track. Typical of Ninas but doubled down  this year if the Euro is close to being right.

 

244903932_seas5_z500a_mon_noram_DEC2021(1).thumb.png.0aabaf0667f9cff3a63947e6b3a517ef.png

seas5_z500a_mon_noram_FEB2022.thumb.png.19de1d6f444cd18a9edf51999974b212.png

Looks like a lot of road trips to Watertown NY 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

Yeah, but we should see a decent clipper or 2 in December don't you think? 

Yea I suppose we would if that pattern occurred. I’ll leave the real forecasting to Tom and the other Mets on here. I usually don’t read into winter forecasts until November. 
 

anyone remember last years seasonal models around this point? They were torch-city if I recall. 

I’m planning to chase the first major LES event this year if it’s got a chance at 1-2 feet. If anyone wants to tag along lmk. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Chubbs said:

NMME September ENSO forecast - borderline weak/moderate Nina with a sharp fall dip. We will know soon if the sharp dip is materializing.

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

Would this be a positive or negative impact to Heisy seeing a lot of snow? 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Would this be a positive or negative impact to Heisy seeing a lot of snow? 

phl tends to get above avg snow in weak and below in moderate nina.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...