Mitchnick Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 On a positive note, the Cfs2 has been very insistent on a cold Canada starting in the fall (November) and intensifying through the winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 26, 2021 Report Share Posted August 26, 2021 Consensus modeling is for a weak la nina. As Tom puts it unless it is a strong nina (who knows if that can still happen) or an uber strong el nino, it is not a shutout waiting to happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted August 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2021 I was looking back at BWI snowfall records, and to my surprise, BWI did better in moderate Nina's than weak ones. The exception being, of course, 95/96, but even that just missed being a weak moderate event by a tenth or 2 in 2 out of the 5 tri-monthly temps. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php p.s. Thanks Tony for starting the thread on my behalf! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted August 26, 2021 Report Share Posted August 26, 2021 Starting the autumn thread and the winter thread in the same week is exactly what the doctor ordered to combat this muck we're dealing with outdoors right now. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 4, 2021 Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 Happy September everybody. Only 3 full months until December!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted September 4, 2021 Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 Just closed the pool, let the games begin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Happy September everybody. Only 3 full months until December!!! So are you still flying the coup or did you fall madly in love over the summer with a local that loves heat, humidity, and freezing rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 5, 2021 Report Share Posted September 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Mitchnick said: So are you still flying the coup or did you fall madly in love over the summer with a local that loves heat, humidity, and freezing rain? Well, I met a woman, she’s Brazilian so she’s used to the heat lol. This has kind of changed the Worcester plans for now, but I definitely plan to chase any snow event in the country that has a chance to dump 2+ feet. While I missed out on a chance to see 40” at BGM I did get to see a 2ft+ event at Dover. I also enjoyed my Colorado trip too even though Estes Park was a bit of a bust. My goal this year is to experience a heavy LES event. Hopefully this is the year I won’t have to chase much besides that Last time I started a new relationship was the winter of 2013-14… hmmmm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2021 10 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Well, I met a woman, she’s Brazilian so she’s used to the heat lol. This has kind of changed the Worcester plans for now, but I definitely plan to chase any snow event in the country that has a chance to dump 2+ feet. While I missed out on a chance to see 40” at BGM I did get to see a 2ft+ event at Dover. I also enjoyed my Colorado trip too even though Estes Park was a bit of a bust. My goal this year is to experience a heavy LES event. Hopefully this is the year I won’t have to chase much besides that Last time I started a new relationship was the winter of 2013-14… hmmmm Happy to hear on both counts. I was hoping you'd stick around, to be honest, since weenies need company in their misery. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2021 Enso really setting the stage for a solid Nina by the looks of these 850 anomalies. Cfs has been trending toward a moderate event. Not saying it gets there, but Cfs says, at this point, it's definitely on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 5, 2021 Report Share Posted September 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Mitchnick said: Enso really setting the stage for a solid Nina by the looks of these 850 anomalies. Cfs has been trending toward a moderate event. Not saying it gets there, but Cfs says, at this point, it's definitely on the table. So we gonna be banking the entire winter on another SSW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2021 5 hours ago, Heisenberg said: So we gonna be banking the entire winter on another SSW? Since every winter is different, who knows but all things are not equal to last year even if we don't have the same extent of blocking. East Qbo is usually a colder winter, so we've got that going for us I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2021 From what I'm reading, and fwiw, the Euro seasonal has joined the party with the CFS indicating a frigid Canada for December and January. That can't hurt....well, not too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 7, 2021 Report Share Posted September 7, 2021 Obviously just for kicks, but at face value I think I’d take this look.. Looks stormy. Would expect a lot of ice/mix type events with it with that west to east gradient. Lots of cold air locked up JUST to our North 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2021 Report Share Posted September 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Obviously just for kicks, but at face value I think I’d take this look.. Looks stormy. Would expect a lot of ice/mix type events with it with that west to east gradient. Lots of cold air locked up JUST to our North Lots of low level cold in that with -epo/-ao 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2021 17 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Obviously just for kicks, but at face value I think I’d take this look.. Looks stormy. Would expect a lot of ice/mix type events with it with that west to east gradient. Lots of cold air locked up JUST to our North December and February. Great Lakes looks like the winner this winter with cold and stormy track. Typical of Ninas but doubled down this year if the Euro is close to being right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 8, 2021 Report Share Posted September 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: December and February. Great Lakes looks like the winner this winter with cold and stormy track. Typical of Ninas but doubled down this year if the Euro is close to being right. Looks like a lot of road trips to Watertown NY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Looks like a lot of road trips to Watertown NY Yeah, but we should see a decent clipper or 2 in December don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 8, 2021 Report Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: Yeah, but we should see a decent clipper or 2 in December don't you think? Yea I suppose we would if that pattern occurred. I’ll leave the real forecasting to Tom and the other Mets on here. I usually don’t read into winter forecasts until November. anyone remember last years seasonal models around this point? They were torch-city if I recall. I’m planning to chase the first major LES event this year if it’s got a chance at 1-2 feet. If anyone wants to tag along lmk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted September 8, 2021 Report Share Posted September 8, 2021 Thinking a typical La Niña…frontloaded followed by torch Feb and March. Maybe another SSW can save us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 9, 2021 Report Share Posted September 9, 2021 NMME September ENSO forecast - borderline weak/moderate Nina with a sharp fall dip. We will know soon if the sharp dip is materializing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 9, 2021 Report Share Posted September 9, 2021 The NMME winter temperature forecast. Has the cold Canada like the euro seas above, but torchy at out latitude with EPO/AO not as favorable as Seas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted September 9, 2021 Report Share Posted September 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Chubbs said: NMME September ENSO forecast - borderline weak/moderate Nina with a sharp fall dip. We will know soon if the sharp dip is materializing. Would this be a positive or negative impact to Heisy seeing a lot of snow? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted September 9, 2021 Report Share Posted September 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Would this be a positive or negative impact to Heisy seeing a lot of snow? phl tends to get above avg snow in weak and below in moderate nina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted September 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2021 18 hours ago, Chubbs said: phl tends to get above avg snow in weak and below in moderate nina. Well, that answers that. 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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