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Found this on the Euro Chart webpage. Meteogram for Philly (found using city search) from the euro weekly. As is usually the case, forecast isn't earth shaking - warm start trending towards average with time

render-worker-commands-844fb78b99-79mf4-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Gv5h3y.png

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phillywx crew watching Tom's live cam from Lowville

I know a few people on here that wouldn't want 12 months of this (maybe 9 months of this), but at my age I'll take it.

Look ma, hardly any 80s...

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I think we have a legit shot at having the warmest October on record. So far we are at 68° up through yesterday at PHL, this will get pushed closer to 70° after this week's warm spell.

Going back to 1874, the warmest October so far is 64.5° set in 2007. The reason I think we have a chance at the record is because after this weekend, the "cooler" pattern will actually put us right around climo, and maybe even slightly above as we get later into next week. There would have to be some decent cold shots the last 2 weeks of the month to get us below record territory.

image.png

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Euro nailed it with the upcoming torch later this week. 

1DC2674C-C4FB-471F-8747-E9DE6E3FCAE2.png

The torch will make the average temps on sun/mon feel like winter.  Either way, those low dews will be refreshing. 

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8 hours ago, ACwx said:

I think we have a legit shot at having the warmest October on record. So far we are at 68° up through yesterday at PHL, this will get pushed closer to 70° after this week's warm spell.

Going back to 1874, the warmest October so far is 64.5° set in 2007. The reason I think we have a chance at the record is because after this weekend, the "cooler" pattern will actually put us right around climo, and maybe even slightly above as we get later into next week. There would have to be some decent cold shots the last 2 weeks of the month to get us below record territory.

image.png

2007 is no slouch, with a 2.7F lead over 2021 through the 12'th. 2007 torches again 17 through 23. So 2021 will need a warm last week to have a chance.

 

 

month 10 year 2007 station PHL network PA_ASOS dpi 100.png

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

2007 is no slouch, with a 2.7F lead over 2021 through the 12'th. 2007 torches again 17 through 23. So 2021 will need a warm last week to have a chance.

 

 

month 10 year 2007 station PHL network PA_ASOS dpi 100.png

2019 had the 1st Oct 90 day at PHL since 1941 so these figures don't match the offical temps. Quite a few differences, some as much ad 3 degrees.

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38 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

2019 had the 1st Oct 90 day at PHL since 1941 so these figures don't match the offical temps. Quite a few differences, some as much ad 3 degrees.

Thanks, Per NOWData, some days are too warm in the IEM chart and others too cool.  A red flag for use of the IEM charts

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Thanks, Per NOWData, some days are too warm in the IEM chart and others too cool.  A red flag for use of the IEM charts

Official high on 10/2/2007 was 80, pretty significant discrepancy.

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1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Official high on 10/2/2007 was 80, pretty significant discrepancy.

Learned something today. IEM has two sets of obs for phl: asos and long term climate site. Below is the long term climate site which hopefully matches the official data. The monthly avg is 64.4 asos vs 64.5 climate site, so the daily plusses and minuses nearly balance out.

month 10 year 2007 station PA6889 network PACLIMATE.png

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1st signs of a reshuffling of the upper air pattern over the arctic and siberia showing up at end of range.  Ridging over siberia slows the endless onslaught of lows towards the aleutians.  Way too early to infer anything, but if a trend develops that could slow the pac jet and eventually flip the AO and EPO.  Need a few more days to see if it has legs

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9 hours ago, susqushawn said:

1st signs of a reshuffling of the upper air pattern over the arctic and siberia showing up at end of range.  Ridging over siberia slows the endless onslaught of lows towards the aleutians.  Way too early to infer anything, but if a trend develops that could slow the pac jet and eventually flip the AO and EPO.  Need a few more days to see if it has legs

May be strat induced. Can see massive wave 1 warming showing up on euro day 8 onward. Could also be MJO related, as both would favor east coast cool

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37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

May be strat induced. Can see massive wave 1 warming showing up on euro day 8 onward. Could also be MJO related, as both would favor east coast cool

I was wondering about the strat connection. In-any-case, The 00z GEFS ( day 0 to 15 below) isn't in a hurry to change, with ridging settling back to E Canada by end of run, instead of staying further N where it could do us some good.

gefs.gif

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

I was wondering about the strat connection. In-any-case, The 00z GEFS ( day 0 to 15 below) isn't in a hurry to change, with ridging settling back to E Canada by end of run, instead of staying further N where it could do us some good.

gefs.gif

It’s probably a case of guidance rushing any pattern change as is often the case.  I doubt there is any kind of major flip until at least mid Nov.

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

May be strat induced. Can see massive wave 1 warming showing up on euro day 8 onward. Could also be MJO related, as both would favor east coast cool

There is your wave 1 push onto the pole in later frames of euro

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t30_anom-1634083200-1634515200-1634947200-20.gif

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4 hours ago, Chubbs said:

I was wondering about the strat connection. In-any-case, The 00z GEFS ( day 0 to 15 below) isn't in a hurry to change, with ridging settling back to E Canada by end of run, instead of staying further N where it could do us some good.

gefs.gif

Wave 1 activity has been above normal for a while. Probably why the SPV can't remain with its stronger start.

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20 minutes ago, Rainshadow23.0 said:

Wave 1 activity has been above normal for a while. Probably why the SPV can't remain with its stronger start.

Yup, but believe this is first time

warming actually going close to or over pole to weaken PV

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

December going to be so key on how it recovers 

Yea, we had a weak pv I believe nov 2018?? Then it went on roids in December and it was game over rest of the winter. So weak pv in nov really doesn’t mean much still 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, we had a weak pv I believe nov 2018?? Then it went on roids in December and it was game over rest of the winter. So weak pv in nov really doesn’t mean much still 

I believe it was 19/20. Philly has less then one inch of snow that season 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I believe it was 19/20. Philly has less then one inch of snow that season 

Yea it was NOV 19, PV was weak heading into early DEC. Then by mid DEC it went on roids and that was it. 2018/19 had the SSW that never did anything for us. Was the year the weeklies kept showing cold weather coming that never panned out because the ssw never coupled with troposphere

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2019.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea it was NOV 19, PV was weak heading into early DEC. Then by mid DEC it went on roids and that was it. 2018/19 had the SSW that never did anything for us. Was the year the weeklies kept showing cold weather coming that never panned out because the ssw never coupled with troposphere

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2019.png

Last year I believe it was weak and never really recovered well in December? 

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8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Last year I believe it was weak and never really recovered well in December? 

It was strong heading into tgiving period then weakened in dec and stayed weak with a ssw

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2020.png

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