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Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion


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I know a few people on here that wouldn't want 12 months of this (maybe 9 months of this), but at my age I'll take it.

Look ma, hardly any 80s...

Finally starting to look more like September after the middle of next week.  Figure beyond Wednesday it is low 80s at warmest?  

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7 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Interesting rain/tropical event on day 6-7 gfs/cmc tonight. 

29E1E596-782B-4854-9EBD-A1DB83E1D436.png

(Maybe this belongs in the medium / long range tropics thread)

 

And again on the 6z run. If that look verifies, then whatever develops won't have a choice but to make landfall somewhere on the East coast.

gfs-ens_z500a_eus_24.png

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3 hours ago, ACwx said:

(Maybe this belongs in the medium / long range tropics thread)

 

And again on the 6z run. If that look verifies, then whatever develops won't have a choice but to make landfall somewhere on the East coast.

gfs-ens_z500a_eus_24.png

Thankfully euro and Ukie keep it well east.  Hope they are right 

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On 9/10/2021 at 12:50 PM, Mitchnick said:

March has become a winter month and September a summer month. 

Otoh, fall of 95 was warm until the end of October when things flipped cold. We all want to rush winter is the problem methinks. 

A rare warm October flop. I don’t know enso states flops by it.

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🔥🔥🔥🔥 September is gonna keep those electric bills HIIIIIGHHHHHH

 

Ou can just see how the flow is torch’s looking on the EPS.. I don’t mind some 80’s, but the deposits will probably remain pretty high with this flow.. 

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73F7D1B7-F48E-41F0-AA59-00A20AABBED7.png

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3 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Lol Euro says overnight lows in the upper 60’s-70’s for Philly region the next 7-10 days. (Maybe. A brief cool shot in between). 
 

This September is gonna come in like +10 if this verified

B0B5E173-4D49-452F-BA20-AD7675F7B023.png

Philly record high monthly minimum for Sept is 58 degrees, current low for the month is 58 degrees. 

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Top 5 warmest Septembers at PHL (interesting that 1881 is far and away above the other years). Currently sitting at 72.2 degrees as an average temp from Sep 1-13.

Considering the next 7-10 days will average 75-80 degrees, I wonder how close that will push us towards the record by the end of the month. Might take a pretty good cold shot as the month ends to put us below record territory.

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42 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Top 5 warmest Septembers at PHL (interesting that 1881 is far and away above the other years). Currently sitting at 72.2 degrees as an average temp from Sep 1-13.

Considering the next 7-10 days will average 75-80 degrees, I wonder how close that will push us towards the record by the end of the month. Might take a pretty good cold shot as the month ends to put us below record territory.

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Really impressive for climo at that time, a Sept that's over 8 degrees warmer than June & nearly as warm as July & August.

Current 72.2 degree average is actually 0.6 below normal. Yeah September has warmed a little bit recently.

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On 9/14/2021 at 1:46 PM, colonel_kurtz said:

Really impressive for climo at that time, a Sept that's over 8 degrees warmer than June & nearly as warm as July & August.

Current 72.2 degree average is actually 0.6 below normal. Yeah September has warmed a little bit recently.

All it took was 3 days for PHL to erase a negative temperature departure built up over the first 10 days of September.  It's like the warmth taunts climo. these days.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. I have experienced enough record cold in October and November to last a lifetime 

We are overdue for a regionwide White Christmas. Perhaps once Tombo moves out of the area. :laugh:

 

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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow23.0 said:

Finally starting to look more like September after the middle of next week.  Figure beyond Wednesday it is low 80s at warmest?

 

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Seems like it. None of the indi’s hit 90’s in the extended. Always a good sign .

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00z/22nd Ensemble Comparison 9/22-10/7. Normal 850mb temp around +10C. 

Interesting Dilemma To Start October.

The up/down thermal profile for the rest of September looks baked in, although I'd bet west of the Delaware will average cooler than east.  Once we enter October the EPS is out of sorts with the other ensembles, more because of amplitude than overall teleconnection pattern.  Its look is more consistent with its MJO outlook than the GEFS.  That being said the MVentrice outlook takes away the punch bowl or suggests the GEFS/GEPS could be right for the wrong reason, Phases 7 & 8 are warm for us in October. The other element of concern is that strong tropical system the Euro has had for a couple of days.  With the NAO (yes beyond skill time) outlooked to go negative, an easier recurve escape would not be there.  The tropics have been less threatening (weaker) this month after Ida, so I leave it up to you whether that was a decent call as there were systems around.

 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 7.5;  PNA Day 9; AO Day 8.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  more positive NAO, near neutral AO, more negative PNA

GEFS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Sep 25th, below normal anomalies Sep 26th, above normal anomalies Sep 27th & Sep 28th, below normal anomalies Sep 29th & Sep 30th, above normal anomalies Oct 1st into Oct 3rd, near normal anomalies Oct 4th, above normal anomalies Oct 5th thru Oct 7th (end of run).

GEPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Sep 24th, near normal anomalies Sep 25th, below normal anomalies Sep 26th & Sep 27th, above normal anomalies Sep 28th, near normal anomalies Sep 29th, above normal anomalies Sep 30th thru Oct 7th (end of run). 

EPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Sep 25th, below normal anomalies Sep 26th, above normal anomalies Sep 27th & Sep 28th, below   normal anomalies Sep 29th into Oct 1st, near normal anomalies Oct 2nd, below normal anomalies Oct 3rd & 4th, near normal anomalies Oct 5th & 6th (end of run).  

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Sep 30th-Oct 7th. High confidence of above normal temperatures.  Trended more confident/warmer.  

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:      +EPO thru 10/1; neg 10/2-10/6

              +PNA thru 9/25;  neg 9/26-10/2; neg 10/3-10/6

               +NAO thru 9/24; neg 9/25-10/5; neut 10/6 

GEPS:     +EPO

              +PNA thru 9/25;  neg 9/26-10/7 except pos 10/4

               +NAO thru 9/24; neg 9/25-10/7

GEFS:     +EPO thru 10/1; neg 10/2-10/7

              +PNA thru 10/6;  neg 10/7

               +NAO thru 9/25; neg 9/26-10/5; neut 10/6-10/7

 

  WPO:   Predominately positive.

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel potential Phase 3  

GEFS Phase 3 approaching Phase 6; EPS Phase 3 approaching Phase 6 (runs ends 10/5 or 10/6). 

MVentrice Strong Phase 4, strong Phase 8 at end.    

 MJO Phases For October, not your typical winter anomalies

                    

Strat: NASA Wave 1 bouncing as high as 90th percentile & Wave 2 bouncing as low as 10th percentile.  

NAM/SPV:  SPV this winter.  NAM, cool shots 9/27 & 10/5. 

image.png.e4d96956f19ace8a34cebe9a41f95e89.png

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