Rockchops Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 Sun is peeking through the clouds here, might add enough fuel to the mix for some afternoon popups even in our area given the humidity. I think most of the initial convective outlook was focused later, into this evening for Chesco westward. As expected, updated MCD from SPC: Mesoscale Discussion 1551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northern VA...DC...MD...Eastern WV Panhandle...Central/eastern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181458Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to gradually increase into this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z. DISCUSSION...At 1445Z, T.D. Fred is still moving northeastward near the OH/WV border northeast of Parkersburg, WV. A warm front extends east-northeast from the cyclone across southern PA, while a surface confluence axis is noted extending from southwest PA into central VA. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across PA in conjunction with the warm front this afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds allowing for some modest destabilization from central PA southward into MD/northern VA. Convection will likely increase in coverage with time near/north of the warm front, with more scattered convection possible along/east of the surface confluence axis into MD/northern VA. This afternoon, 0-1 km SRH will likely be maximized over central PA (potentially in excess of 200 m2/s2), though somewhat enhanced SRH will also extend southward into MD/VA where surface winds remain backed to a southeasterly direction. Scattered supercells are likely to evolve with time as convection matures, with an attendant threat of a few tornadoes and isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z in response to these threats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Rockchops said: Sun is peeking through the clouds here, might add enough fuel to the mix for some afternoon popups even in our area given the humidity. I think most of the initial convective outlook was focused later, into this evening for Chesco westward. As expected, updated MCD from SPC: Mesoscale Discussion 1551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northern VA...DC...MD...Eastern WV Panhandle...Central/eastern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181458Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to gradually increase into this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z. DISCUSSION...At 1445Z, T.D. Fred is still moving northeastward near the OH/WV border northeast of Parkersburg, WV. A warm front extends east-northeast from the cyclone across southern PA, while a surface confluence axis is noted extending from southwest PA into central VA. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across PA in conjunction with the warm front this afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds allowing for some modest destabilization from central PA southward into MD/northern VA. Convection will likely increase in coverage with time near/north of the warm front, with more scattered convection possible along/east of the surface confluence axis into MD/northern VA. This afternoon, 0-1 km SRH will likely be maximized over central PA (potentially in excess of 200 m2/s2), though somewhat enhanced SRH will also extend southward into MD/VA where surface winds remain backed to a southeasterly direction. Scattered supercells are likely to evolve with time as convection matures, with an attendant threat of a few tornadoes and isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z in response to these threats. Can you just give me some rain? Yeah this is like the opposite of 7/29 with regard to the sun breaking out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 Didn't think I would see 90 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 hours ago, SalemCountyNJ said: Didn't think I would see 90 today. You may see it tomorrow too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 I would keep an eye on this moving NNE, near West Grove and west of Unionville. TPHL 6:43 PM: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 Another feature to keep track of, near Landenberg moving toward New Garden. TPHL 7:27 PM: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 I was hoping a little rain out of this. Hope is dwindling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2021 Report Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, cbelke said: I was hoping a little rain out of this. Hope is dwindling. Raining here. Give it time. Two chances in the next 6 hours or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 .20" in NW Chesco with the first round, main show looks to be a couple hours away yet. Gardens can use the rain. Ash trees cannot use the wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, Parsley said: Raining here. Give it time. Two chances in the next 6 hours or so. We'll get something, I was hoping for a bit more widespread to water the lawn. I concur, two possible quick hitting rounds that should pivot through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Torrential rain. 😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, cbelke said: We'll get something, I was hoping for a bit more widespread to water the lawn. I concur, two possible quick hitting rounds that should pivot through. This stuff could drop 1”-2” easily (west of the Del. river). We’ll see how it holds together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, iceman56 said: .20" in NW Chesco with the first round, main show looks to be a couple hours away yet. Gardens can use the rain. Ash trees cannot use the wind. Just had a 5 minute deluge with 8.73"/hr rate that dropped nearly a 1/2 inch. Now at .68". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 0.56” quickly with the first batch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 At the shore this week, where it has been mainly sunny the past 2 days. Per tempest, 0.96" today and 0.14" yesterday at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockchops Posted August 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, iceman56 said: Just had a 5 minute deluge with 8.73"/hr rate that dropped nearly a 1/2 inch. Now at .68". Wow thats a hell of a downpour! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 .76 so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 This is interesting coming in from Lanco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 1.04" in the Ambient back home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Based on radar, I'd be shocked if flood warnings aren't issued in the next hour or two for parts of Chester and Montgomery counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Impressive rain, wind and lightning here. and now a flood warning. Joy…. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Parsley said: Impressive rain, wind and lightning here. and now a flood warning. Joy…. Very heavy rain here in Spring Mount, PA with lightning and thunder. Just saw the flood warning, which is definitely justified. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Just now, JCT777 said: Very heavy rain here in Spring Mount, PA with lightning and thunder. Just saw the flood warning, which is definitely justified. Yeah. Quickly over 1” of rain here. Lots of Thunder and lightening. One of the best storms of summer. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Pouring. Over an inch and adding up fast. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Wow. Those rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.