Rainshadow Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado, will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area... Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability can develop in vicinity of the warm front. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 The latest HRRR depiction makes the most sense to me right now. But I like to use noon to 1pm as my go to point to figure if things are going to pan out. Cloud cover looks like biggest issue to me. Can already see cloud debris racing In through susq valley towards our region while low clouds continue to develop over the area in response to low level moist flow advecting up from south. Just seems awfully cloudy 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 I like using the 1-minute imagery for a lot of situations but especially for days like today. Seems like the best clearing will be from latitudes around Dover, DE on southward. North of there will be more iffy thanks to clouds. https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 SPC has pushed enhanced risk bit further north with morning update. Now it goes to just north of allentown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 off latest 12z 3k nam, but this looks a bit more potent for wind damage. Look at the punch of dry air aloft towards the mid levels 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: The latest HRRR depiction makes the most sense to me right now. But I like to use noon to 1pm as my go to point to figure if things are going to pan out. Cloud cover looks like biggest issue to me. Can already see cloud debris racing In through susq valley towards our region while low clouds continue to develop over the area in response to low level moist flow advecting up from south. Just seems awfully cloudy Feeling the east wind and clouds here currently. Imo this threat is cooked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Gotta see if this area clears out. This is what could bring the instability if it does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Feeling the east wind and clouds here currently. Imo this threat is cooked Up your way agreed, more stratiform rain for you instead of svr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Mt. Holly Facebook page says to keep an eye on the weather today for a possible severe thunderstorm watch, but if I were a betting person, I’d bet on tornado watch based on the 5% SPC probability which is high for around these parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Still pretty cloudy here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Both down the shore in Sea Isle and up in East Nantmeal plenty of clouds - even without those still expect we see some firing as we move through the day - hopefully Phillies squeeze in their twin bill! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Skies trying to brighten but still mainly cloudy, 75F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanvolz98 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 I’d call it a bright cloudy here in Manayunk at the moment... not too thrilled about our clearing prospects based off satellite. Pretty stark temperature contrasts of low mid 70s in our area and mid 80s in Baltimore where there’s more sun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Up to 79 here....sun is starting to feel stronger, although still filtered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Cloudy with a slight breeze. Only 76 right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Kinda feels like the Delmarva is situated in the best spot. Much more sun/heat down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: Kinda feels like the Delmarva is situated in the best spot. Much more sun/heat down there. But they are also further displaced from dynamics and backing of winds in relation to warm front 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: But they are also further displaced from dynamics and backing of winds in relation to warm front But if we don't get some sun soon, there isn't going to be much happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Light rain shower here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Is it a bit telling that there isn’t a watch issued by Mt. Holly yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks like some showers. Grass will like it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, eastonwx said: Is it a bit telling that there isn’t a watch issued by Mt. Holly yet? SPC issues watches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 It should bulk up a bit once past Harrisburg but I’ll sell on enhanced risk. Think slight risk was best call 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted July 29, 2021 Report Share Posted July 29, 2021 80 - if anything the high clouds have thickened a bit recently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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