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7/29 Enhanced Risk Observations


Bananashadow
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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado,
   will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
   Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday.

   ...Northeast through Middle Atlantic area...

   Upper pattern in this region will be characterized by a broad trough
   today. MCV/shortwave trough embedded within the synoptic trough will
   move from the lower Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic. At the
   surface a warm front will move northward through the Middle
   Atlantic, while a cold front advances southeast, reaching PA and the
   central Appalachians by evening. Thunderstorms should be in progress
   at the start of the period in association with the MCV over the
   southern portion of the Great Lakes. Other storms may be ongoing in
   the warm-advection regime north of the warm front over a portion of
   the Middle Atlantic. Widespread multi-layer clouds may precede the
   warm front. However, the warm sector should become moderately
   unstable during the afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE supported
   by the advection of richer low-level moisture and pockets of
   diabatic heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
   cold front in association with ascent attending the southeast-moving
   MCV as well as along the southeast-advancing cold front. This area
   will reside within belt of stronger mid-upper flow associated with
   the synoptic trough supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear.
   Therefore, some supercells may evolve along with line segments with
   bowing structures as activity develops southeast during the
   afternoon into the evening. Primary threat appears to be damaging
   wind and possibly some hail, though low-level hodographs will be
   sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient instability
   can develop in vicinity of the warm front.  

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_neus_22.png

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The latest HRRR depiction makes the most sense to me right now. But I like to use noon to 1pm as my go to point to figure if things are going to pan out. Cloud cover looks like biggest issue to me. Can already see cloud debris racing In through susq valley towards our region while low clouds continue to develop over the area in response to low level moist flow advecting up from south. Just seems awfully cloudy 

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I like using the 1-minute imagery for a lot of situations but especially for days like today. Seems like the best clearing will be from latitudes around Dover, DE on southward. North of there will be more iffy thanks to clouds.

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The latest HRRR depiction makes the most sense to me right now. But I like to use noon to 1pm as my go to point to figure if things are going to pan out. Cloud cover looks like biggest issue to me. Can already see cloud debris racing In through susq valley towards our region while low clouds continue to develop over the area in response to low level moist flow advecting up from south. Just seems awfully cloudy 

Feeling the east wind and clouds here currently. Imo this threat is cooked 

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Both down the shore in Sea Isle and up in East Nantmeal plenty of clouds - even without those still expect we see some firing as we move through the day - hopefully Phillies squeeze in their twin bill!

 

Driveway.20210729_110546728.jpg

SicHi.20210729_110533678.jpg

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I’d call it a bright cloudy here in Manayunk at the moment... not too thrilled about our clearing prospects based off satellite. Pretty stark temperature contrasts of low mid 70s in our area and mid 80s in Baltimore where there’s more sun 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

But they are also further displaced from dynamics and backing of winds in relation to warm front

But if we don't get some sun soon, there isn't going to be much happening.

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