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Final Verification & Thoughts On Like The Sun Returning To The Northern Hemisphere, The GFS Forecasts 100s For PHL Thread.


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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F on 8/10 & 102F on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F on 8/9, 101F on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 102F on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13 & 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F on 8/11 & 101F on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F on 8/10 & 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  42

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  31

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

 

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F on 8/10 & 102F on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 102F on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F on 8/11 & 101F on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....oh there is more

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F on 8/10 & 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F on 8/12

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  43

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  32

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F on 8/10 & 102F on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 102F on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F on 8/11 & 101F on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F on 8/10 & 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F on 8/12 & 8/13 & 8/23

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  46

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  35

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F on 8/11 & 102F on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F on 8/11 & 101F on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

8/11/06z....100F on 8/13

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F on 8/12 & 8/13 & 8/23

8/10/18z...99F on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F on 8/13

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  47

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  37

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

8/11/06z....100F on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F on 8/12 & 8/13 & 8/23

8/10/18z...99F on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F on 8/19

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  39

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F (96F) on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F (96F) on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F (96F) on 8/12, 100F on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F (96F) on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F (96F) on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

8/11/06z....100F on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F on 8/13 & 99F on 8/23

8/10/18z...99F on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F on 8/19

8/12/06z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F on 8/13

8/12/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  42

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F (96F) on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F (96F) on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F on 8/14 & 103F on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F (96F) on 8/12, 100F (95F) on 8/13 & 102F on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F (96F) on 8/12 & 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F on 8/14; 101F on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F (96F) on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

8/11/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F on 8/15, 8/17, 8/18 & 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13 & 99F on 8/23

8/10/18z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F on 8/19

8/12/06z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F on 8/13

8/12/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  42

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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This version of the GFS has forecast more 100 degree days than the previous version last (hotter) summer.

 

GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F on (95F) 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F (96F) on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F (90F) on 8/14 & 103F (82F) on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F (96F) on 8/12, 100F (95F) on 8/13 & 102F (87F) on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F (95F) on 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F (90F) on 8/14; 101F (87F) on 8/15; 104F on 8/19, 102F on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F (96F) on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F on 8/18 & 101F on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F on 8/20 & 8/21 & 8/22

8/11/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F (87F) on 8/15, 99F (83F) on 8/17, 99F on 8/18 & 99F on 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 99F on (90F) 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13 & 99F on 8/23

8/10/18z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F on 8/19

8/12/06z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13

8/12/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  42

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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This version of the GFS has forecast more 100 degree days than the previous version last (hotter) summer.

 

GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F on (95F) 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F (96F) on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F (90F) on 8/14 & 103F (82F) on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F (96F) on 8/12, 100F (95F) on 8/13 & 102F (87F) on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F (95F) on 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F (90F) on 8/14; 101F (87F) on 8/15; 104F (90F) on 8/19, 102F (82F) on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F (96F) on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F (91F) on 8/18 & 101F (90F) on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F on 8/23 & 101F on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F (82F) on 8/20 & 100F (83F) on 8/21 & 100F on 8/22

8/11/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F (82F) on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F (87F) on 8/15, 99F (83F) on 8/17, 99F (91F) on 8/18 & 99F (90F) on 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 99F on (90F) 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F (91F) on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13 & 99F on 8/23

8/10/18z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F (90F) on 8/19

8/12/06z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13

8/12/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/21/18z...99F on 8/27

8/23/00z..99F on 8/27

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F (93F) on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  44

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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This version of the GFS has forecast more 100 degree days than the previous version last (hotter) summer.

 

GFS

6/17/12z.......101F (95F) on 6/29

6/18/06z......100F (86F) on 7/1 & 100F (79F) on 7/2

6/25/06z.....101F (89F) on 7/9

7/1/12z........100F (94F) on 7/16

7/4/06z......100F (80F) on 7/18

7/14/06z....100F (91F) on 7/26

7/24/18z....100F (90F) on 8/6

7/27/00z....103F (93F) on 8/10 & 102F (95F) on 8/11

7/27/06z...100F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F on (95F) 8/13

8/2/00z....100F (93F) on 8/9, 101F (93F) on 8/10, 102F (95F) on 8/11 & 102F (96F) on 8/12. 

8/2/06z.....100F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/12z.....102F (93F) on 8/10

8/2/18z....101F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....101F (95F) on 8/11, 100F (90F) on 8/14 & 103F (82F) on 8/16

8/4/06z....101F (96F) on 8/12, 100F (95F) on 8/13 & 102F (87F) on 8/15

8/4/12z.....100F (96F) on 8/12 & 100F (95F) on 8/13

8/4/18z....100F (95F) on 8/11

8/5/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F (90F) on 8/14; 101F (87F) on 8/15; 104F (90F) on 8/19, 102F (82F) on 8/20

8/5/12z....100F (95F) on 8/11 & 101F (96F) on 8/12

8/6/18z....100F (95F) on 8/13; 100F (91F) on 8/18 & 101F (90F) on 8/19

8/8/18z....100F (90F) on 8/23 & 101F (92F) on 8/24

8/9/00z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/9/12z...100F (95F) on 8/13

8/10/12z....100F (82F) on 8/20 & 100F (83F) on 8/21 & 100F (88F) on 8/22

8/11/06z....100F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....102F (82F) on 8/20

 

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions

6/23/18z......99F (96F) on 7/7

6/25/06z.....99F (95F) on 6/29

6/25/12z......99F (97F) on 6/30

6/27/18z......99F (88F) on 7/11 & 99F (93F) on 7/12

7/8/18z........99F (85F) on 7/23

7/27/00z....99F (93F) on 8/9

7/27/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/29/06z...99F (93F) on 8/10

7/31/00z...99F (95F) on 8/11

7/31/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/1/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/2/12z....99F (93F) on 8/9

8/3/00z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/3/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10 & 99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/00z....99F (87F) on 8/15, 99F (83F) on 8/17, 99F (91F) on 8/18 & 99F (90F) on 8/19

8/4/06z....99F (95F) on 8/11 & 99F on (90F) 8/14

8/4/12z.....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/4/18z....99F (93F) on 8/10

8/5/06z....99F (91F) on 8/18

8/7/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/7/18z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/00z....99F (95F) on 8/11

8/8/06z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/8/18z....99F (88F) on 8/22

8/9/18z....99F (96F) on 8/12

8/10/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13 & 99F (90F) on 8/23

8/10/18z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/00z...99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/12z....99F (95F) on 8/13

8/11/18z....99F (90F) on 8/19

8/12/06z...99F (96F) on 8/12 & 99F (95F) on 8/13

8/12/12z...99F (96F) on 8/12

8/21/18z...99F (93F) on 8/27

8/23/00z..99F (93F) on 8/27

 

 

 

ECMWF:

7/20/12z......101F (81F) on 7/29  (stop hanging out with the GFS)

Honorable Mentions

8/2/12z.......99F (93F) on 8/10

 

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the GFS:  48

Number of days 100F or above forecast by the ECMWF:  1

Number of days 99F forecast by the GFS:  44

Number of days 99F forecast by the ECMWF:  1

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  • 1 month later...

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher:  48  (9 more times than 2020)

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  36

 

Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or higher:  1 (17 less than 2020)

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 0

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher within 10 days: 20

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 19

 

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F :  44

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  39

 

Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 99F :  1

Actual number of highs 90F or higher:  1

 

Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 99F or higher within 10 days: 39

Actual number of highs 90F or higher: 39

 

Number of times GFS & ECMWF forecast 100F on the same day within 10 days: 0

 

Number of 100 degree days at PHL: 0

 

First in terms of modeling improvements with respect to 2M temperatures, the Euro upgrade was better at removing non-occurring extreme events vs the GFS which was even worse than last summer.  That being said and if we move within modeling skill time, the GFS was very good at calling 90 degree days (even if they were 90F or 91F) within 10 days.  It was perfect at calling the 90s within 10 days if its high forecast was 99F.  Maybe not paradoxical as an off the rails forecast is only going to get worse with time, while a not as extreme forecast has a better chance of verifying because it is grounded in climatological reality.  So while the extremely unlikely events have crept within 10 days with this version of the GFS, it has become more accurate at recognizing air masses that will produce 90 degree highs.  Meanwhile the ECMWF just avoided this dilemma altogether. 

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  • Rainshadow changed the title to Final Verification & Thoughts On Like The Sun Returning To The Northern Hemisphere, The GFS Forecasts 100s For PHL Thread.

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