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6/3 & 6/4 Thunderstorm Obs.


Parsley

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45 minutes ago, cbelke said:

They were pretty robust for this mornings round of storms, however, I'm not seeing that really pan out, other than further South.  Let's see what the afternoon/evening round brings.

Pretty small in coverage area. Did get a quick 0.25” here 

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7 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Pretty small in coverage area. Did get a quick 0.25” here 

0.17"

It was a nice steady rain for half an hour. No thunder.

 

Looks like storms will be less intense on some of the meso models this afternoon. 

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day1otlk_1200.gif.a411cb9b39702e9a2d938da1bf307949.gif

...Mid Atlantic into Western New England...
   Scattered clusters of convection are expected through the day along
   and east of the weak surface trough moving out of the Ohio Valley,
   within a plume of moist southwesterly flow ahead of the upper
   trough. The area most likely to see some diurnal heating and at
   least modest destabilization prior to the onset of convection is the
   Mid Atlantic into portions of western New England. In this area,
   MLCAPE potentially exceeding 1000 J/kg in conjunction with effective
   shear of 35-45 kt will favor organized convection by mid afternoon.
   Locally damaging wind is expected to be the primary hazard, given
   the anticipated cluster mode, but some hail cannot be ruled out
   despite generally weak midlevel lapse rates. If any supercells
   (either discrete or cluster-embedded) can be sustained, low-level
   flow/shear will also be sufficient to support a tornado or two. 
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48 minutes ago, cbelke said:

0.17"

It was a nice steady rain for half an hour. No thunder.

 

Looks like storms will be less intense on some of the meso models this afternoon. 

Yeah, we'll see. Probably at a minimum some super soakers rolling though later today. Need to see if we can get some clearing from the current muck leading up to round 2.

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Had a quick round of heavy rain around 4:30AM, another quick batch of moderate rain about 15 minutes ago, and now dry but overcast.

A little bit of clearing to our southwest but not too much.

image.png

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Latest wording from SPC sounds about the same as the earlier morning:

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
   An upper-level trough over the Lower Ohio Valley late this morning
   will continue northeastward with strengthening southwesterly winds
   aloft and the onset of height falls along the Eastern Seaboard this
   afternoon. While multicells capable of localized wind damage will be
   possible across a broad portion of the East either side of the
   Appalachians, the most severe-storm favorable combination of
   vertical shear and instability will likely materialize this
   afternoon through early evening along the Virginia Blue Ridge
   vicinity to the Delmarva and southeast Pennsylvania and parts of New
   Jersey, where organized/sustained multicells and some transient
   supercells can be expected. Isolated damaging winds are expected to
   be the most common severe risk, but strengthening low-level
   shear/SRH and a moist environment could support the possibility of a
   tornado or two across the region.
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