hm2 Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 General observations I've noticed or found in research that I believe are prominent in warm season trends: 1. North Pacific SST gradient has shifted poleward, even if you take into account the PDO. The Tropics overall have been warming of course, but the IO / Pacific are warming more quickly than the Atlantic, which affects convection/monsoons. More on that: 2. The migration of output of divergence from the East Asian Monsoon / West Pacific Warm Pool eastward and the SST gradient shift have likely contributed to the intensified jet across the North Pacific into the North Atlantic. A few plots during the June-Oct mean: 3. The orientation of the jet and poleward shift have created an anomalous wave train in the NH jet when comparing climo normals (this same trend was noted when comparing 1971-2000 to 1981-2010 as well, see: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/147/2/mwr-d-18-0131.1.xml). The jet has recently intensified (as you can see above) and extended across the North Atlantic. While a low level factor, the SST gradient has intensified in N. Atlantic. Part of this is the Greenland ice melt and another part is the warming western N. Atlantic basin. Where the arc shifts in the black line is about where the exit region of the North Atlantic jet is located. The intensification of the N. Atlantic low anomaly here, extension of jet, and wave trend, have created a strong high over the Barents' Region. This dynamic response from global circulation has sped up the sea ice loss in those areas. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/regional-sea-ice/extent/Barents/ 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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