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1 or 2 days away from the “hump” where we start seeing averages decline… 

GFS advertising some lows in the 50's for the burbs next weekend. Would be a coup to be able to turn off the AC during July. 

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26 minutes ago, Rainshadow101 said:

Maybe (hopefully) what we are seeing in error with the 00z OP Euros.

Eps are cooler, we take 

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow101 said:

Yes it has been steadier. Even the GEFs has non 90F highs 7/22-7/26 & it never does that in July.

 

GFS advertising some lows in the 50's for the burbs next weekend. Would be a coup to be able to turn off the AC during July. 

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00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 7/23-8/7. Normal 850mb temp around +15C. 

 One Is Not Like The Others...

 

Without wishcasting this, the teleconnection skill beyond week 1 is the poorest I have snapshot seen all year.  This period is a conflict between a predicted Rockies heat ridge and misplaced PV into Canada (Hudson Bay no less for a while).  So toward the end of next week the ensembles have all different solutions as  to who will win. @Chubbs posted the eastward ridging bias and while I don't verify it, I will go with consistency with it.  So naturally I am tossing the more eastward let's pour on the heat GEFs solution for week 2.  MJO correlations are weaker, but phase 8 (early August) "suggests" cooler. GEFS just collapses the MJO which may help explain its warmest solution.  MVentrice stronger output is with the EPS.  So while I don't feel confident about a refreshing start to August, there is enough strong conflicting signals to give pause to either temperature extreme solution. BTW with the MJO outlooked to pass across the Atlantic, the cycling up of tropical activity should occur during the first 10 days of August. (I know this is almost like saying a climo statement).

 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 6.75;  PNA Day 8; AO Day 7.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  AO more positive; PNA Neutral, NAO more negative

GEFS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jul 25th, above normal anomalies Jul 25th into Jul 29th, mainly below normal anomalies Jul 30th into Aug 1st, above normal anomalies Aug 2nd thru Aug 7th (end of run).

GEPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into early Jul 25th, above normal anomalies Jul 25th & Jul 26th, near normal anomalies Jul 27th into Jul 28th, below normal anomalies Jul 29th, above normal anomalies Jul 30th, below normal anomalies Jul 31st thru Aug 3rd, near normal anomalies Aug 4th, above normal anomalies Aug 5th, near normal anomalies Aug 6th & 7th. (end of run). 

EPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into early Jul 25th, above normal anomalies Jul 25th into Jul 29th, mainly near normal anomalies Jul 30th thru Aug 3rd, below normal anomalies Aug 4th & Aug 5th, near normal anomalies Aug 6th (end of run).   

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jul 31st-Aug 7th. I don't know which typically means not above normal. Previous runs same boat, huge conflict between GEFS & GEPS week 2.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:      +EPO  thru 7/27; neg 7/28-8/1; pos 8/2-8/6

              +PNA 

              +NAO thru 7/25, neg 7/26-8/5; neut 8/6

GEPS:    +EPO  thru 7/27; neg 7/28-8/5; pos 8/6; neg 8/7

              +PNA  

              +NAO thru 7/25, neg 7/26-8/7

GEFS:    +EPO  thru 7/26; neg 7/27-8/3; neut 8/4-8/7

              +PNA thru 8/2, neut 8/3-8/7

              +NAO, one day neg 7/27 & one day neut 8/3 

 Negative WPO becoming positive during the first week of August

 

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phase 3.  

GEFS Phase 6 collapses aimlessly into COD; EPS Phase 6 to Phase 2 (runs ends 8/5 or 8/6). 

MVentrice Strong Phase 6, Phase 1/2 border at end.    

MJO August phases Wavelength shrinkage correlations/confidence poor in the Northeast (see map).

                       

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 above normal, wave 2 below normal  

NAM/SPV:  SPV this winter.  Cool Shot still there end of July.  

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