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Even if this spring was not dry leading into it, I don't hold much cooler hope for this summer at all. The new warmer normals notwithstanding, this is the 11 year solar cycle heat monster: 2010, 1999, 1988, 1977, 1966, 1955 all were either hot summers or at the least (because of a cool June) brought 100s into the picture. I don't see anything encouraging about this June being a cooler reprieve.  Anyway I will post my analogs for this summer (I have not looked yet) this weekend, maybe it will give me a contradiction.

 

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1 or 2 days away from the “hump” where we start seeing averages decline… 

GFS advertising some lows in the 50's for the burbs next weekend. Would be a coup to be able to turn off the AC during July. 

Posted Images

I get the feeling it’s going to be a hot and dry summer.  The CPC summer outlook shows above average precip in the East, but we’ll see.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Even if this spring was not dry leading into it, I don't hold much cooler hope for this summer at all. The new warmer normals notwithstanding, this is the 11 year solar cycle heat monster: 2010, 1999, 1988, 1977, 1966, 1955 all were either hot summers or at the least (because of a cool June) brought 100s into the picture. I don't see anything encouraging about this June being a cooler reprieve.  Anyway I will post my analogs for this summer (I have not looked yet) this weekend, maybe it will give me a contradiction.

 

MJO pushing into phase 8 could help with a cooler start to June possibly.

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Even if this spring was not dry leading into it, I don't hold much cooler hope for this summer at all. The new warmer normals notwithstanding, this is the 11 year solar cycle heat monster: 2010, 1999, 1988, 1977, 1966, 1955 all were either hot summers or at the least (because of a cool June) brought 100s into the picture. I don't see anything encouraging about this June being a cooler reprieve.  Anyway I will post my analogs for this summer (I have not looked yet) this weekend, maybe it will give me a contradiction.

 

Out of curiosity, what features are typically looked at for summer analogs? Like for winter, SSTs are a big one along with some other things like the solar cycle or QBO. I wasn't aware if analogs were useful or not in summer considering winter weather (especially temperatures) can vary from year to year more than summer.

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6 hours ago, ACwx said:

Out of curiosity, what features are typically looked at for summer analogs? Like for winter, SSTs are a big one along with some other things like the solar cycle or QBO. I wasn't aware if analogs were useful or not in summer considering winter weather (especially temperatures) can vary from year to year more than summer.

I just do the standard enso base state and how April/May behaved locally. The correlations even before everything has gone to the furnace in a hand basket lately were weaker than the October/November couplet once were.  I never got into QBO, just figured the more you add, the less the analog list becomes.  Solar cycle just an observation on how the previous summers have gone at this 11 year interval.  I don't use it otherwise.  Then again most people don't really care much about the summer. Granted I'd sell half my golf clubs for a summer like 2000 or 2004, but I am not sure that can ever happen again.

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

atleast they weren't dry. 2011 made me cringe though, 2 or 3 100s in a row that summer

If we don’t turn this dry boat around in June I’d be more surprised at not hitting 100F than hitting 100F before July is over.

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00z/23rd Ensemble Comparison 5/23-6/7.  Normal 850mb temp around +11C. 

 Memorial Day Weekend One Weekend Too Late. Below Normal/Wet For The Start, Otherwise warm, warm, warm.

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 8;  PNA Day 9; AO Day 13

Recent Verification Tendency:  NAO & AO more positive, PNA more negative, all warmer signals.

GEFS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 24th, (same) backdoor below normal anomalies night of May 24th, (same) above normal anomalies later May 25th into May 27th, (1.5 days longer) below normal anomalies May 27th into May 31st, near normal anomalies May 30th, welcome to summer above normal anomalies Jun 1st thru Jun 7th (end of run).

GEPS: (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 24th, (same) backdoor below normal anomalies night of May 24th, (day longer) above normal anomalies May 25th into May 28th, (0.5 days longer) below normal anomalies May 28th thru May 29th, near normal anomalies May 30th, welcome to summer too above normal anomalies May 31st thru Jun 7th (end of run).

EPS:  (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 24th, (same) below normal anomalies night of May 24th, (day longer) above normal anomalies May 25th into May 28th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies May 29th, welcome to summer III above normal anomalies May 30th thru Jun 6th.

NAEFS Week 2: Period of May 31st-Jun 7th.  Why not. High confidence of above normal temperatures. 

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:      -EPO thru 5/26, pos 5/27-5/28, neg 5/29-6/1, pos 6/2-6/6 

              -PNA thru 5/28, pos 5/29-6/6 (same)

              neutral NAO

GEPS:   -EPO thru 5/26, neutral 5/27-6/4, neg 6/5-6/7

             -PNA  thru 5/28, pos 5/29-6/4, neg 6/5-6/7 (same)

             +NAO thru 5/30, neg 5/31-6/7

GEFS:   -EPO into 6/1, pos 6/1-6/4, neg 6/5-6/7

             -PNA thru 5/28, pos 5/29-6/5, neut 6/6-6/7   

             +NAO thru 6/1, neut 6/2-6/7

WPO     neg thru 5/24, then pos until the end on GEPS & GEFS

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phase 4.  

GEFS Phase 4 to Phase 7; EPS Phase 5 to Phase 8 (runs ends 6/4). 

MVentrice Bipole Very Strong Phase 3 & 5, styill bipole look of Phase 7 & Phase 8 at end.    

MJO phases June Because of wavelength shrinkage correlations/confidence are poor in the northeast.

                       Phase 6 -PNA, Phase 7 +PNA, Phase 8 most confident correlation of cooler than normal

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 bouncing downward to the 50th percentile & Wave 2 dead. EC done for season.  

NAM/SPV:  SPV next winter.  Trop induced cooler 5/26 & 6/3. 

 

 A couple of things I still have to do.  First is look at the summer correlations with the teleconnection indices. The second is in what will become nothing but above normal height/thermal outlooks, see if I can find some near normal and maybe a below normal day or two hints.  I know we need rain, but the timing with Memorial Day weekend  (especially Saturday?) is not going to make people happy.  In probably being wrong again the +PNA is outlooked to be wasted the first week of June  because of a flat amplitude in the east. Amplitude is not what it is during the winter, but maybe there is a ray of cooler hope that first full week of June vs non stop above normals.  Beyond that we are way beyond skill about going zonal. That is warm.  Yes MJO Phase 8 is our strongest statistical correlation for some cooler weather, that is now most likely to materialize toward the end of next week if it has some teeth.

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Def a muggy and warm look after the first couple days of June on ens. Nice Bermuda high signal funneling sw flow and all the dews northeast. Probably a bit active too depending on where HP positions. Even though MJo will be in cooler phases after june 4th, current look right now isn't anything like that

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38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Impressive for an ens mean 

ecmwf-ensemble-KLOM-indiv_qpf-2160000.png

Wow, drought thread ftw. Makes sense with Bermuda high and weak troughing in middle of country.

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Because of wavelength changes, the teleconnection indices (other than AO) are flipped during summer.  @tombo82685, I am not sure EP/NH is the closest we will get to the EPO.  Negative correlation in winter too, so not sure if a) this is right b) if it is do they use flipped signs (like vvel positive being upward).

 

ep.JPG

nao.JPG

pna.JPGclimdivcorr_72_73_242_14_147.7.4_55_prcp.png.0518349c0123bd61a6ed2b4f88b672fc.png

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00z/28th Ensemble Comparison 5/28-6/12.  Normal 850mb temp around +12C. 

 After A Cooler Start To June, Wake Me Up When September Ends

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 8;  PNA Day 8; AO Day 12

Recent Verification Tendency:  NAO & PNA more positive, AO more negative.

GEFS: (1 day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Jun 1st, near normal anomalies Jun 2nd, (2 day delay) welcome to summer above normal anomalies Jun 3rd thru Jun 12th (end of run).

GEPS: (2 days longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Jun 2nd, (3 day delay) welcome to summer too above normal anomalies Jun 3rd thru Jun 12th (end of run).

EPS:  (different) Gradient NW cold/SE warm 850mb temp anomalies into May 30th, (2 days longer) below normal anomalies May 31st into Jun 2nd, (4 day delay) welcome to summer III above normal anomalies Jun 3rd thru Jun 11th.

NAEFS Week 2: Period of Jun 5th-Jun 12th. 90% confidence of above normal temperatures. 

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:      +EPO thru 6/6, neg 6/7-6/11 

              +PNA thru 6/2, neg 6/3-6/11

              +NAO, neutral 6/7-6/9

GEPS:   +EPO thru 6/5, neg 6/6-6/12

             +PNA  thru 6/3, neg 6/4-6/12

             +NAO thru 6/3, neutral 6/4-6/5, neg 6/6-6/12

GEFS:   +EPO thru 6/5, neg 6/6-6/12

             +PNA thru 6/2, neg 6/3-6/12   

             +NAO thru 5/31, neut 6/1-6/12

WPO     neg thru 5/24, then pos until the end on GEPS & GEFS

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phases 3 & 7.  

GEFS Phase 6 to Phase 6 )good luck); EPS Phase 6 to Phase 1 (runs ends 6/10). 

MVentrice Strong Phase 6, Phase 1 at end.    

MJO phases June Because of wavelength shrinkage correlations/confidence are poor in the northeast.

                       Phase 6 warm Gulf Coast, Phase 7 Cool Great Lakes,

                       Phase 8 most confident correlation of cooler than normal here, Phase 1 neutral 

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 pretty much dead at end; Wave 2 90th percentile. EC done for season.  

NAM/SPV:  SPV next winter.  Trop induced now & 6/8. 

 

 Regardless of the teleconnection flips, I don't know if we have come to the default it will always be warm section of the ensembles.  Granted it has been a long time since it has not been warmer than normal in summer. Anyway the general 500mb look for (we will perpetually be warm) week 2 looks warm on the EPS & GEFS.  The GEPS of all ensembles throws us a bone. The MJO is outlooked to go thru Phase 8, so there may be a cooler 2-3 day stretch that is getting masked for now in week 2.  That is all I got for now.

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10 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Wow, drought thread ftw. Makes sense with Bermuda high and weak troughing in middle of country.

Probably setting up for 70+ dews once we break this trough late next week or next weekend in the wake of all this rain. It's only a matter of time.

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13 hours ago, Parsley said:

Probably setting up for 70+ dews once we break this trough late next week or next weekend in the wake of all this rain. It's only a matter of time.

Upper 80s week 2 in the ensembles usually segues into the 90s in reality.  Old GFS would have had a 100F day on last night's run.

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-daily_tmin_tmax-2246400.png.5dbe5c057b89506f6e5316dad46a1c42.png

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Looks like a hot and dry period coming up as the ridge takes over.  Thankfully we had the rain the last few days!  Majority of June looks to be hot and dry.

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6 minutes ago, Colin said:

Looks like a hot and dry period coming up as the ridge takes over.  Thankfully we had the rain the last few days!  Majority of June looks to be hot and dry.

I see warm and humid, not dry

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I see warm and humid, not dry

Yeah, looks like a few rain / t-storm chances between Wednesday evening and Saturday... with humidity, of course. Don’t really see prolonged dry for a while.

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1 hour ago, JCT777 said:

Yeah, looks like a few rain / t-storm chances between Wednesday evening and Saturday... with humidity, of course. Don’t really see prolonged dry for a while.

Yea I'd say Thursday into Friday morning has the chance for some heavy rainfall. Pwats in the 1.5-2" range will support tropical downpours. Colin though may be right with the heat coming in again as Bermuda high shifts a bit west towards us

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With all the outdoor (because of Covid-19) HS graduations going on this Saturday (including my twin daughters!), anyone care to point out which weather features might be responsible for causing precipitation on Saturday? 

Time to obssess over whether graduation will go off without a hitch or be subject to the rain date.

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