Rainshadow Posted April 29, 2021 Report Share Posted April 29, 2021 Slight risk was dropped with morning update. ...East TX to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are possible episodically in a broad corridor from the east TX frontal-wave development region to the other in the inland Mid-Atlantic, along and ahead of the composite baroclinic zone of front and outflow. The main concern will be locally damaging wind, with isolated severe gusts possible. Isolated large hail also may occur predominantly from east TX to MS, where midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy depth will be somewhat greater than areas farther northeast. The main supporting factors for strong-severe convection will be low-level moisture advection/transport in the warm sector, and a belt of favorable mid/upper flow from TX to the Northeast. A strong LLJ also will persist longest in the central Appalachians to inland Mid-Atlantic region, elongated low-level hodographs -- but where instability will be weak. The southern rim of that flow belt will be traversed by the frontal/outflow zone and convection associated therewith, and stronger downdrafts may transport enough momentum from aloft to produce locally strong-severe gusts -- especially in bowing segments that can orient more orthogonal to the flow instead of the largely parallel nature of the convective swath as a whole. Instability and lack of stronger lift at all scales will be limiting factors, with the main low-level forcing being along the composite frontal/outflow zone that largely parallels flow aloft over much of the region. Weak low/middle-level lapse rates -- evident in many 12Z RAOBS in and near the outlook area -- include strong midlevel stable layers (e.g., JAN, BMX, LCH, LIX, and BNA). Modified forecast soundings depict MLCAPE generally in the 250-800 J/kg range, which appears reasonable given abundant cloud cover and accordingly restricted diurnal heating. High wind watch in effect for tomorrow. We look pretty good (fwtw) for at least advisory level wind gusts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted April 29, 2021 Report Share Posted April 29, 2021 0.31" so far today - still only 2.04" this month which is 1.79" below normal through today here in East Nantmeal Twp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 29, 2021 Report Share Posted April 29, 2021 0.35" - line produced heavy rain some lightning/thunder, just sprinkles earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted April 29, 2021 Report Share Posted April 29, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 0.03" 🥱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 86 yesterday, 76 today quick 0.37" tonight with a couple rumbles, downpour was just what the doctor ordered as the pollen reached obscene levels today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 We gusted I'd estimate around 40 mph when that line went thru Mount Laurel about 8 pm. 0.37" thru 1108 pm, raining pretty hard right now. We needed it. Next week maybe not so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 I am currently running my irrigation system after 0.01" earlier and no rain through the weekend. Ground is DRY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Got home from Colorado just in time for the winds tomorrow. Had a half inch of snow at my friend’s house at 8800 ft on Tuesday. Pretty cool. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 i was hoping for a down pour to wash down all the pollen, didnt happen, sucks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Wind took down a tree/power lines outside my development around 5am. Power was out for awhile. Detours remain. Going to be a long day with wind issues it appears. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Shelf season has begun! 😂😂 quick hitting storm last night, little breezy, but nothing crazy. Over/under on KPHL hitting 52mph gusts today. I’ll take the over ! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Over/under on KPHL hitting 52mph gusts today. I’ll take the over ! Over Most wind advisories / warnings seem to underperform, this looks different. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 .06" yesterday. Highest gust on my station today has been 32 so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 .48 yesterday. One of the lucky ones to cash in on some needed rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Wow, my weather station just recorded a 50.1 mph gust. That is a top 5 gust since I've had it for about 2 years now. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 2 hours ago, frankdp23 said: Wow, my weather station just recorded a 50.1 mph gust. That is a top 5 gust since I've had it for about 2 years now. Is yours on the roof? I really need to get around to mounting my station to the roof or something. I know it is supposed to be four times the distance of the height of the nearest structure, but no way that is happening in my yard. The problem is, my station is about 100 feet south of my house on top of the swing set, so it is sheltered from the typical N/NW winds we get with the worst windstorms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qtown Snow Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Qtown Snow said: i was hoping for a down pour to wash down all the pollen, didnt happen, sucks HA! Ask and you shall receive, nice downpour, wash away that pollen! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said: Is yours on the roof? I really need to get around to mounting my station to the roof or something. I know it is supposed to be four times the distance of the height of the nearest structure, but no way that is happening in my yard. The problem is, my station is about 100 feet south of my house on top of the swing set, so it is sheltered from the typical N/NW winds we get with the worst windstorms. Yeah it is on the roof, so not perfect, but it is the best I can do for winds. There are no trees within about 100 yards from it, so I'm happy with it. Plus, my wife wouldn't let me get a pole to mount it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rramblings Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 3 hours ago, frankdp23 said: Wow, my weather station just recorded a 50.1 mph gust. That is a top 5 gust since I've had it for about 2 years now. Hey Frank, I have a little hand held anemometer which I might try for kicks, but it is either not reliable or I don't know how to use it. I can tell by looking at my trees and applying the beaufort wind scale that I may be getting estimated gusts at least in the 32 to 38 mph range, perhaps more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel_kurtz Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Strongest winds of the day at the office in Bensalem, definitely close to 50mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 68.1F and 42 mph wind gust, and I'm in a relatively sheltered location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 21 mph so far in my sheltered valley in NW Chesco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Strongest gust recently with the passing showers. 40-50 mph range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 30, 2021 Report Share Posted April 30, 2021 Gusts 60+ in Harrisburg. KMDT 301956Z 31040G54KT 10SM Gusts 50+ in Lancaster. KLNS 302053Z 29024G45KT 10SM -RA FEW090 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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