Rainshadow Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 ...Mid-Atlantic to Northeast... Mostly clear skies are anticipated ahead of the cold front as it moves across the Appalachian mountains during the morning hours. This will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 60s which, given the cool temperatures aloft, will be sufficient to erode inhibition across the region. Therefore, expect storms to form along the cold front during the late morning. The severe threat may start to increase as early as 15Z given the limited heating needed for surface based storm development and the strong forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings show a well mixed boundary layer ahead of the cold front with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. This will provide a favorable environment for damaging wind gusts, especially given the 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. The cool temperatures aloft and strong shear may support some marginally severe hail, but wind will likely be the primary threat. While most CAM guidance shows storms becoming better organized near the coast in the eastern Virginia to Delmarva region, the threat could begin a few counties further inland given the potential for late morning initiation. HREF mean temperature fields show temperatures increasing into the low 70s ahead of this front which would yield MLCAPE around 750 J/kg even if surface dewpoints mix out ahead of the front. Therefore, would expect storm activity to pose a severe threat given the unstable and moderately sheared (40-45 kts effective shear) environment. Farther north, expect storm activity to reach maturity by early afternoon with a line of storms moving from northeast Pennsylvania across southeast New York, New Jersey, and into portions of New England. This region, in close proximity to the surface low, may have the best chance for a more organized severe threat. Storm mode will favor wind damage as the primary threat, but strong speed shear and some weak low-level veering flow supports at least some threat of a brief tornado. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 1 year ago today lol. Atmospheric memory?! 😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 First thing I thought of when I saw the title of this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el_nino Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Line of showers and front just 2.8 miles west of me here in East Nantmeal Twp - currently cloudy and breezy temp 67.0 high was 67.6 - briefly lost power about 30 minutes ago as is the norm in these parts....generator kicked on and 5 minutes later full power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Briefly heavy rain with hail (small diameter) along with thunder and lightning - high wind gust 16mph Temp down to 63.8 on VP but already at 59.4 on Tempest up on roof 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Incoming!! I can see the storms better without leaves on the trees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 A whole bucket of nothing here. Everything formed north and east of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Hail. Pea size. North side of Pottstown. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Hard to see clearly in the video, here it was melting in my car. 😆 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemCountyNJ Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Lighting detector warnings on the Tempest hitting my cell phone at work. Pretty cool... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mshaffer526 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Nice @Parsley! High of 66.9 at 11:25 AM, down to 54.5 already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Pea sized hail 03E4046C-240F-4579-B153-CA6D5C1E4F4D.MOV 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbelke Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Pea size hail at the beginning of the event, probably about 30 seconds worth, and then nothing but rain after. 16 mph wind gust and 0.13" of rain of it. Steady lightning and thunder during the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaia Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 North and South of me. 🙄 Well, it sounded sexy. We get a whole lot of freezing wind and a pollen tornado. Alas, I sit here, sneezing, in sunshine, while I watch clouds and hear thunder pass just a hair north of me. 😭 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Just a few big drops from a developing storm. 66.9 high down to 61.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Small hail in Flemington I just read @rramblings. Just saw some sick lightning here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Confirmed, pea sized hail here 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: Confirmed, pea sized hail here FRANK! Hot tub time! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyphaPSU Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Love the reports I'm seeing of snow in the Poconos. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 Big hail potential in SNJ. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Parsley said: FRANK! Hot tub time! Maybe later! It's always fun to go in while it is snowing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACwx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 63mph gust at ACY about 5 miles south of me. I was in a relative "weak spot" and only had 35-40mph gusts but still got some pea-sized hail. Nice little event overall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankdp23 Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 71 earlier, 46 now. Didn't rain enough to cancel softball practice. This is going to awful later. Had a 41.2 mph gust earlier and still very windy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted April 21, 2021 Report Share Posted April 21, 2021 .55", current temp 42F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.