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April 21st-23rd Obs: Two, Two. Two Seasons In One. Thunderstorms Today, Windy & Freeze Warning Cold Tomorrow, Freeze Warning Cold Again Friday.


Bananashadow
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...Mid-Atlantic to Northeast...
   Mostly clear skies are anticipated ahead of the cold front as it
   moves across the Appalachian mountains during the morning hours.
   This will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 60s which,
   given the cool temperatures aloft, will be sufficient to erode
   inhibition across the region. Therefore, expect storms to form along
   the cold front during the late morning. The severe threat may start
   to increase as early as 15Z given the limited heating needed for
   surface based storm development and the strong forcing for ascent.
   Forecast soundings show a well mixed boundary layer ahead of the
   cold front with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. This
   will provide a favorable environment for damaging wind gusts,
   especially given the 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. The cool
   temperatures aloft and strong shear may support some marginally
   severe hail, but wind will likely be the primary threat. While most
   CAM guidance shows storms becoming better organized near the coast
   in the eastern Virginia to Delmarva region, the threat could begin a
   few counties further inland given the potential for late morning
   initiation. HREF mean temperature fields show temperatures
   increasing into the low 70s ahead of this front which would yield
   MLCAPE around 750 J/kg even if surface dewpoints mix out ahead of
   the front. Therefore, would expect storm activity to pose a severe
   threat given the unstable and moderately sheared (40-45 kts
   effective shear) environment. Farther north, expect storm activity
   to reach maturity by early afternoon with a line of storms moving
   from northeast Pennsylvania across southeast New York, New Jersey,
   and into portions of New England. This region, in close proximity to
   the surface low, may have the best chance for a more organized
   severe threat. Storm mode will favor wind damage as the primary
   threat, but strong speed shear and some weak low-level veering flow
   supports at least some threat of a brief tornado.

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  • Bananashadow changed the title to April 21st-22nd Obs: Two, Two. Two Seasons In One. Thunderstorms Today, Windy & Freeze Warning Cold Tomorrow.

Line of showers and front just 2.8 miles west of me here in East Nantmeal Twp - currently cloudy and breezy temp 67.0 high was 67.6 - briefly lost power about 30 minutes ago as is the norm in these parts....generator kicked on and 5 minutes later full power

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  • Bananashadow changed the title to April 21st-23rd Obs: Two, Two. Two Seasons In One. Thunderstorms Today, Windy & Freeze Warning Cold Tomorrow, Freeze Warning Cold Again Friday.

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