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April/May Meteorological Pattern Discussion


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Massive differences between the gfs, ggem, euro starting Friday. GFS coldest, euro warmest. with ggem inbetween but more towards the gfs. GFS and ggem would bring in some much needed rain, while euro

00z/14th Ensemble Comparison 5/14-5/29.  Normal 850mb temp around +10C.   Going out on a real limb saying 2nd half of month warmer than 1st half... GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst

but then....  

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Just your typical May day.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_30.png.d10b43b6e5d78f849f3043adf6b2a78e.png

One of my friends asked me yesterday if it's good to plant their corn, tomatoes, peppers, etc. this weekend and my reply was well...I'm not even 100% sure we've seen our last snowflake here (I got a coating last May). 

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3 hours ago, JamieO said:

One of my friends asked me yesterday if it's good to plant their corn, tomatoes, peppers, etc. this weekend and my reply was well...I'm not even 100% sure we've seen our last snowflake here (I got a coating last May). 

Yeah I see no reason to plant our vegetables here before Mother’s Day again this year.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Yeah I see no reason to plant our vegetables here before Mother’s Day again this year.

do you like frost threats in early May?

 

cdb83130da75eb09490f37bb1f0ca73f.gif

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I got 25 or so tomato & pepper plants delivered nearly two weeks ago.   The tomatoes have been in the ground a week and have new green leaves.   Peppers going in tomorrow.   I have enough pots to cover them.   Are we talking pre or post 5/10 - I'm in NH 5/10 & after where snow is still in the forecast at least this week.

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11 hours ago, iceman56 said:

I got 25 or so tomato & pepper plants delivered nearly two weeks ago.   The tomatoes have been in the ground a week and have new green leaves.   Peppers going in tomorrow.   I have enough pots to cover them.   Are we talking pre or post 5/10 - I'm in NH 5/10 & after where snow is still in the forecast at least this week.

Pre 5/10.

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00z/2nd Ensemble Comparison 5/2-5/17.  Normal 850mb temp around +9C. 

 A cold shot around Mother's Day Weekend, muddled look after that.

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 8.5;  PNA Day 10.5; AO Day 14

Recent Verification Tendency:  All more negative

GEFS: (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into May 5th, below normal anomalies May 5th into May 10th, gradient cold north, warm south May 10th into May 13th, below normal anomalies May 14th & 15th, above normal anomalies May 16th, near normal anomalies May 17th. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies through May 5th, (colder) below normal anomalies May 6th thru May 8th, (shorter) above normal anomalies May 9th & May 10th, below normal anomalies May 11th & May 12th, near normal anomalies May 13th, below normal anomalies May 14th thru May 16th, above normal anomalies May 17th.  (end of run).

EPS:  (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 5th, (much longer) below normal anomalies May 6th thru May 12th, above normal anomalies May 13th & May 14th, near normal anomalies May 15th, above normal anomalies May 16th. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Period of May 10th-May 17th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, colder north; warmer south gradient.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     +EPO, neg 5/9 & 5/10

             -PNA,  pos 5/5-5/7

             -NAO thru 5/9; pos 5/10-5/16

GEPS:   +EPO, neg 5/8-5/10

             -PNA, neut 5/6   

             -NAO thru 5/10; pos 5/11-5/17

GEFS:   +EPO thru 5/4, neut 5/5-5/17

             -PNA, neut 5/6   

             -NAO thru 5/9, neutral 5/10-5/17

WPO GEFS near neutral, GEPS & EPS positive

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phase 8/1 border  

GEFS Phase 1 to Phase 6; EPS Phase 8 to phase 2 COD (run ends 5/13 EPS, 5/15 GEFS). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 1, Phase 4 at end.    

MJO phases May Phase 1 weak warm correlation in the Northeast; Phase 2 Cold; Phase 3 Warm; Phase 4 & 5 cold, Phase 6 big confidence warm west of us

 

Strat: NASA Slowly weakening Wave 1 (to 90th percentile) & Wave 2 (below 50th percentile). EC done for seasonr.  

NAM/SPV:  SPV gone.  Trop induced cold on GFS thru 5/10-5/11. 

 

Teleconnection skill tanked big time as wavelengths narrowed.  Some of the outlooks beyond day 7 were a total flip. We can see it with MJO phase confidence , does not really reach the east coast any longer.  So the cold shot at the end of this week is within skill time. Thanks.  Beyond that lower confidence prevails for me. I think the EPS duration of cold is overdone based on some assumed teleconnection skill thru day 7 or so. After that they all have this gradient anomaly look (cold north, warm south).

 

00z/26th Ensemble Comparison 4/26-5/11.  Normal 850mb temp around +8C. 

 GEFS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (new cold split) below normal anomalies Apr 30th thru May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 3rd thru May 6th, near normal anomalies May 7th, below normal anomalies May 8th thru May 11th. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (day shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (colder) below normal anomalies Apr 30th into May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 2nd into May 7th, below normal anomalies May 8th, above normal anomalies May 9th thru May 11th.  (end of run).

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (new cold split) below normal anomalies May 1st and May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 3rd thru May 6th, below normal anomalies May 7th & May 8th, near normal anomalies May 9th, above normal anomalies May 10th. (end of run)

 See you next winter:

wave.JPG.050e6f0588a1d1c0ea345362c3b02aaf.JPG

 

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24 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

front end snow tease flip to rain

The whole setup has changed since his post. But that image had a Bermuda high prior to the storm system. There is no HP to bring cold in so relying on cold catching up to precip or storm wrapping up bringing it in. If anything maybe rain to brief end as snow 

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The whole setup has changed since his post. But that image had a Bermuda high prior to the storm system. There is no HP to bring cold in so relying on cold catching up to precip or storm wrapping up bringing it in. If anything maybe rain to brief end as snow 

No Tombo high.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

No Tombo high.

bingo, in March you need a good high source to drain in the cold. In that setup you would rely on cold catching precip or storm creating cold by bringing it into system. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

bingo, in March you need a good high source to drain in the cold. In that setup you would rely on cold catching precip or storm creating cold by bringing it into system. 

Gfs doesn’t care about no Tombo high lol 

8CAD3AA6-EAB4-4A90-B7D5-67C8AD95A233.png

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16 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Gfs doesn’t care about no Tombo high lol 

8CAD3AA6-EAB4-4A90-B7D5-67C8AD95A233.png

it's the higher elevations of the northeast. They dont need a tombo high

200.gif

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

The GFS was a lone wolf (yeah it was beyond day 4, but not just one run) with this massive nor'easter.  No soup for it.

 

6 hrs earlier:

 

I will say, given the models, if I were Heisenberg living here and not me, I'd take the 10 minute drive up the Allegheny Front to 2200' at 3 am Saturday morning to see what I can see (probably raccoons, coyotes, and maybe some mangled flakes).

This weather is not great for central PA tomatoes, Tony. I know it lasts well into next week, anyone have ideas when we pull out of it? I see Accuweather Pro's long-range blog seems to be thinking a normal to slightly above normal second half of the month tempwise, was wondering what all of you thought. Just something I'm pondering on a May 9th afternoon that has rain and 46 degrees going on. Which is great and awesome and why did I move here. 

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I guess it must be nor'easter Friday for the new GFS, I don't know if I would want to be in the ICON's camp the way it is this far out.  Eventually if you forecast it enough times....

gfs.JPG.cbd2862acb17d39ea4c53a3ecf8fb6dc.JPG

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1 minute ago, JamieO said:

I will say, given the models, if I were Heisenberg living here and not me, I'd take the 10 minute drive up the Allegheny Front to 2200' at 3 am Saturday morning to see what I can see (probably raccoons, coyotes, and maybe some mangled flakes).

This weather is not great for central PA tomatoes, Tony. I know it lasts well into next week, anyone have ideas when we pull out of it? I see Accuweather Pro's long-range blog seems to be thinking a normal to slightly above normal second half of the month tempwise, was wondering what all of you thought. Just something I'm pondering on a May 9th afternoon that has rain and 46 degrees going on. Which is great and awesome and why did I move here. 

JamieO, I haven't really looked beyond the upcoming week. I have been remiss between working again and trying to get the garden ready. I was going to take a look tomorrow morning. It gets to the point though once the second half of May rolls around one almost prefers a cooler pattern to start prevailing.

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24 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

JamieO, I haven't really looked beyond the upcoming week. I have been remiss between working again and trying to get the garden ready. I was going to take a look tomorrow morning. It gets to the point though once the second half of May rolls around one almost prefers a cooler pattern to start prevailing.

Given the new PHL normal high is 88 in July, me take whatever I can get.    Every day that is 60 is a day when it's not 95.

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00z/8th Ensemble Comparison 5/8-5/23.  Normal 850mb temp around +9C. 

 A colder week, a couple/few day warm up; then better expectation of colder vs warmer. 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 9;  PNA Day 10.5; AO Day 13.5

Recent Verification Tendency:  AO, NAO more negative, PNA more positive (all colder)

GEFS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 9th, above normal anomalies May 10th, (colder longer) below normal anomalies into May 17th, above normal anomalies May 18th & May 19th, below normal anomalies May 20th thru May 23rd, backdoor look. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (day later) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies through May 9th, (shorter) above normal anomalies May 10th, (lost warm day) below normal anomalies May 11th into May 16th, above normal anomalies later May 17th into May 20th, near to below normal anomalies later May 20th thru May 23rd.  (end of run).

EPS:  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru May 9th, (new warm split) above normal anomalies May 10th, (longer) below normal anomalies May 11th thru May 17th, near normal anomalies May 18th & May 19th, above normal anomalies May 20th thru May 22nd, colder east vs northeast. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Period of May 16th-May 23rd.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, trending warmer.  Previous runs were in "I don't know", which equals cold.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     -EPO thru 5/14, pos 5/15-5/22

             -PNA after today (only teleconnection 5/2 outlook came close)

             -NAO

GEPS:   -EPO thru 5/14, pos 5/15-5/21, neut 5/22-5/23

             -PNA after today

             -NAO thru 5/21; neut 5/22-5/23

GEFS:   -EPO thru 5/14, pos 5/15-5/17, neut 5/18-5/23

             -PNA after today   

             -NAO thru 5/21; neut 5/22-5/23

WPO     near neutral to more positive

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phases 1 & 3.  

GEFS Phase 2 to Phase 5; EPS Phase 2 to phase 4 COD (run ends 5/21 EPS, 5/22 GEFS). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 1, Phase 4 at end.    

MJO phases May Phase 1 weak warm correlation in the Northeast; Phase 2 Cold; Phase 3 Warm; Phase 4 & 5 cold, Phase 6 big confidence warm west of us

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 around 90th percentile & Wave 2 50th percentile rising to 90th percentile. EC done for season.  

NAM/SPV:  SPV next winter.  Trop induced cold is gone. 

@JamieO,

Yes the EPS should be "wrong" because of a one day wonder warm anomaly comes Monday. Kind of a bear to look much beyond day 8, reminds me of some winters. Yes it was a one day snap shot, but they all flipped the EPO & NAO from where they were week 2.  So that being said  this upcoming week colder than normal, yes. An EPO (within skill time) more than a one day wonder warm period around next weekend, yes. Beyond that I don't know, which lately has been colder. A pass through Phase 3 with an existing MJO does corroborate for a couple/few warmer day, but Phases 4 & 5 are now colder if it keeps on going....

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I'm not sure where to post this, but I imagine it's potentially of interest to many. Here's the abstract: 

The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet's atmospheric circulation. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge. The canon of solar variability is derived from the 400 years of observations that demonstrates the waxing and waning number of sunspots over an 11(‐ish) year period. Recent research has demonstrated the significance of the underlying 22 years magnetic polarity cycle in establishing the shorter sunspot cycle. Integral to the manifestation of the latter is the spatiotemporal overlapping and migration of oppositely polarized magnetic bands. We demonstrate the impact of “terminators”—the end of Hale magnetic cycles—on the Sun's radiative output and particulate shielding of our atmosphere through the rapid global reconfiguration of solar magnetism. Using direct observation and proxies of solar activity going back some six decades we can, with high statistical significance, demonstrate a correlation between the occurrence of terminators and the largest swings of Earth's oceanic indices: the transition from El Niño to La Niña states of the central Pacific. This empirical relationship is a potential source of increased predictive skill for the understanding of El Niño climate variations, a high‐stakes societal imperative given that El Niño impacts lives, property, and economic activity around the globe. A forecast of the Sun's global behavior places the next solar cycle termination in mid‐2020; should a major oceanic swing follow, then the challenge becomes: when does correlation become causation and how does the process work?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EA001223

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