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April/May Meteorological Pattern Discussion


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Massive differences between the gfs, ggem, euro starting Friday. GFS coldest, euro warmest. with ggem inbetween but more towards the gfs. GFS and ggem would bring in some much needed rain, while euro

00z/14th Ensemble Comparison 5/14-5/29.  Normal 850mb temp around +10C.   Going out on a real limb saying 2nd half of month warmer than 1st half... GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst

but then....  

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25 minutes ago, cbelke said:

It's not Mother's Day, who would plant before Mother's Day????

It’s also 9 days away. But there is a frost threat closer in Saturday morning 

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

They, Lowe’s do this nonsense every year. Some years I have seen them selling tomato plants in March.

Our local Lowe's seems to have wised up.   I did not see sensitive plants yet when I went last weekend.    Last year their

entire stock of tomatoes and peppers got hammered by frost and then they left them out to try to keep selling them.   They

were never replaced.    Between that and the COVID nonsense that went on with the shutdowns last year, gardening was

a real challenge as other nurseries required ordering in advance.    I ordered plants through the mail and they showed up

yesterday, so not sure what to do with them yet.

 

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8 hours ago, iceman56 said:

Our local Lowe's seems to have wised up.   I did not see sensitive plants yet when I went last weekend.    Last year their

entire stock of tomatoes and peppers got hammered by frost and then they left them out to try to keep selling them.   They

were never replaced.    Between that and the COVID nonsense that went on with the shutdowns last year, gardening was

a real challenge as other nurseries required ordering in advance.    I ordered plants through the mail and they showed up

yesterday, so not sure what to do with them yet.

 

Yeah I had problems even ordering seeds from Johnny’s. 

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00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 4/16-5/1.  Normal 850mb temp around +5C. 

 April is still the cruelest month. Nothing warm to see here, move on. 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 13.5;  PNA Day 12.5; AO Day 14

Recent Verification Tendency:  all more positive

GEFS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 27th, above normal anomalies Apr 28th thru May 1st. (end of run) 

GEPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 19th, near normal anomalies Apr. 20th, below normal anomalies Apr. 21st thru Apr 25th, above normal anomalies Apr 26th thru Apr 28th, below normal anomalies night of Apr 29th, near normal anomalies thru May 1st (end of run).

EPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 19th, above normal anomalies later Apr 20th & Apr 21st, below normal anomalies Apr 22nd thru Apr 28th, near normal anomalies Apr 29th & Apr 30th. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Week of April 24th-May 1st.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures; never rolled over colder, not good for it.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     -EPO thru 4/26, neutral 4/27-4/30

             +PNA thru 4/21, neg 4/22-4/24, neutral 4/25-4/30

             Neutral NAO thru 4/21; neg 4/22-4/30

GEPS:   -EPO thru 4/23, pos 4/24-5/1

             +PNA thru 4/21, neg 4/22-4/23, pos 4/24-5/1   

              Neutral NAO thru 4/21; neg 4/22-5/1

GEFS:   -EPO thru 4/24, pos 4/25-5/1

             +PNA thru 4/23, neutral 4/24-5/1

             Neutral NAO thru 4/21, neg 4/22-5/1

WPO neg thru 4/27 on GEFS, GEPS and neg thrut on EPS

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Convection Phase 6, Vel potential phases 6-8  

GEFS Phase 7 to Phase 8; EPS Phase 7 to Phase 8 (run ends 4/30). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 5; Phase 8/1 still strong looking at end.    

MJO phases Poor April correlations other than Phase 6 warm.  Phase 8 strongest correlation is warm in the Upper Plains.

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 & Wave 2 activity peaking at around 95th percentile next week. EC similar Wave 1, Wave 2 peak looks, flatter, earlier.  

NAM/SPV:  End of season SPV GFS showing a big time collapse now crossing 0 kt around April 28th to neg 2SD and even a slight rebound. GEFS crosses 0 kt earlier on April 26th. Ensembles showing collapse slightly slower around April 29th.  Trop induced cold on GFS peaks around April 24th. Predicted strat collapse coming earlier, what it means for May, I don't know.

 

Anyone wanting a warm 2nd half of April, nothing to see here, move on. -EPO thru its (my) estimated skill time of April 23rd pretty much takes us toward the end of April. +PNA relaxing after April 23rd would bring angle of the cold last week of April farther west.  NAO outlook has changed so taking that into consideration the -NAO dollar cost average doesn't look that negative. The last(?) in a series of Rex Blocks in the northeast Pacific unraveling time is the differences in the snap back at the end of the month other than to say there will be a snap back.  The now much sharper predicted SPV collapse, I don't know our timing or downstream ramifications. Now it coincides with expected Rex unraveling.  

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If we can limit the big rain events a "cool" April isn't the worst thing. The heat can wait. Definitely doesn't look promising for prolonged warmth anytime soon.

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3 hours ago, Parsley said:

If we can limit the big rain events a "cool" April isn't the worst thing. The heat can wait. Definitely doesn't look promising for prolonged warmth anytime soon.

That stretch of weather we had last week (Monday-Friday, naturally) was probably the nicest four-five day stretch we are going to have all year.

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On 4/16/2021 at 10:04 AM, Rainshadow6.6 said:

00z/16th Ensemble Comparison 4/16-5/1.  Normal 850mb temp around +5C. 

 April is still the cruelest month. Nothing warm to see here, move on. 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 13.5;  PNA Day 12.5; AO Day 14

Recent Verification Tendency:  all more positive

GEFS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 27th, above normal anomalies Apr 28th thru May 1st. (end of run) 

GEPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 19th, near normal anomalies Apr. 20th, below normal anomalies Apr. 21st thru Apr 25th, above normal anomalies Apr 26th thru Apr 28th, below normal anomalies night of Apr 29th, near normal anomalies thru May 1st (end of run).

EPS: Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 19th, above normal anomalies later Apr 20th & Apr 21st, below normal anomalies Apr 22nd thru Apr 28th, near normal anomalies Apr 29th & Apr 30th. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Week of April 24th-May 1st.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures; never rolled over colder, not good for it.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     -EPO thru 4/26, neutral 4/27-4/30

             +PNA thru 4/21, neg 4/22-4/24, neutral 4/25-4/30

             Neutral NAO thru 4/21; neg 4/22-4/30

GEPS:   -EPO thru 4/23, pos 4/24-5/1

             +PNA thru 4/21, neg 4/22-4/23, pos 4/24-5/1   

              Neutral NAO thru 4/21; neg 4/22-5/1

GEFS:   -EPO thru 4/24, pos 4/25-5/1

             +PNA thru 4/23, neutral 4/24-5/1

             Neutral NAO thru 4/21, neg 4/22-5/1

WPO neg thru 4/27 on GEFS, GEPS and neg thrut on EPS

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Convection Phase 6, Vel potential phases 6-8  

GEFS Phase 7 to Phase 8; EPS Phase 7 to Phase 8 (run ends 4/30). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 5; Phase 8/1 still strong looking at end.    

MJO phases Poor April correlations other than Phase 6 warm.  Phase 8 strongest correlation is warm in the Upper Plains.

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 & Wave 2 activity peaking at around 95th percentile next week. EC similar Wave 1, Wave 2 peak looks, flatter, earlier.  

NAM/SPV:  End of season SPV GFS showing a big time collapse now crossing 0 kt around April 28th to neg 2SD and even a slight rebound. GEFS crosses 0 kt earlier on April 26th. Ensembles showing collapse slightly slower around April 29th.  Trop induced cold on GFS peaks around April 24th. Predicted strat collapse coming earlier, what it means for May, I don't know.

 

Anyone wanting a warm 2nd half of April, nothing to see here, move on. -EPO thru its (my) estimated skill time of April 23rd pretty much takes us toward the end of April. +PNA relaxing after April 23rd would bring angle of the cold last week of April farther west.  NAO outlook has changed so taking that into consideration the -NAO dollar cost average doesn't look that negative. The last(?) in a series of Rex Blocks in the northeast Pacific unraveling time is the differences in the snap back at the end of the month other than to say there will be a snap back.  The now much sharper predicted SPV collapse, I don't know our timing or downstream ramifications. Now it coincides with expected Rex unraveling.  

Do you like when we have a barney shot of cold air in late April?

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00z/22nd Ensemble Comparison 4/22-5/7.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C. 

 A warm end to April; a warm start to May? 

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 14;  PNA Day 12; AO Day 14+

Recent Verification Tendency:  NAO more negative, PNA neutral, AO more positive

GEFS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 26th, above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 7th. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 26th, (longer) above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 1st, near normal anomalies May 2nd & May 3rd, above normal anomalies May 4th thru May 7th (end of run).

EPS: (shorter & a warm split)  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 24th, above normal anomalies Apr 25th, below normal anomalies Apr 26th, (warmer) above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 6th. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Week of April 30th-May 7th.  High confidence of above normal temperatures throughout the eastern half of the CONUS.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     -EPO thru 4/26, pos 4/27-5/6

             -PNA, pos 4/28-4/30, neg 5/1-5/6

             -NAO thru 5/3; neutral 5/4-5/6

GEPS:   -EPO thru 4/25, pos 4/26-5/6, neut 5/7

             -PNA thru 4/26, pos 4/27-5/1, neg 5/2-5/7   

              -NAO thru 4/30; pos 5/1-5/7

GEFS:   -EPO thru 4/25, pos 4/26-5/3, neg 5/4-5/7

             -PNA thru 4/26, pos 4/27-5/1, neg 5/2-5/7   

             -NAO thru 4/30, pos 5/1-5/7

WPO negative, except close to neutral on GEPS 5/1-5/7

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Convection Split Phase 5 & 8, Vel potential Phase 8  

GEFS Phase 7 to Phase 1; EPS Same (run ends 5/5). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 8, gets to Phase 2 on 5/7;     

MJO phases May Phases 8 & 1 Weak warm correlation in the Northeast; Phase 2 Cold

 

Strat: NASA 99th Percentile Wave 1 & Wave 2 hit weakening, but still above normal. EC similar.  

NAM/SPV:  End of season SPV GFS showing a more gradual demise now crossing 0 kt around May 3rd, some other ensembles show a rebound after an April 28th 0kt crossing.  Trop induced cold on GFS peaks around April 26th. 

 

Anyone wanting a warm last week of April  something to see here, stay.  Looks like the EPO rebound almost coincides with our return to warm weather. Probably has more to do with the PNA rolling over to negative.  Have to see about a colder shot around the end of the month gaining width or strength.  Beyond that we are getting beyond EPO skill, but the PNA suggests warmer or at the least a less aggressive angle of the cold if there is any.  Apologies for the big gaps between these. Will try to shorten them once the garden gets set.

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00z/26th Ensemble Comparison 4/26-5/11.  Normal 850mb temp around +8C. 

 A colder shot to start May, then warmer again.  ???? Central third of May.

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 13.5;  PNA Day 11.5; AO Day 14+

Recent Verification Tendency:  All more negative

GEFS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (new cold split) below normal anomalies Apr 30th thru May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 3rd thru May 6th, near normal anomalies May 7th, below normal anomalies May 8th thru May 11th. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (day shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (colder) below normal anomalies Apr 30th into May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 2nd into May 7th, below normal anomalies May 8th, above normal anomalies May 9th thru May 11th.  (end of run).

EPS:  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Apr 30th, (new cold split) below normal anomalies May 1st and May 2nd, above normal anomalies May 3rd thru May 6th, below normal anomalies May 7th & May 8th, near normal anomalies May 9th, above normal anomalies May 10th. (end of run)

NAEFS Week 2: Period of May 4th-May 11th.  Low confidence of above normal temperatures, trending cooler last couple of days.

 

Teleconnections: 

EPS:     -EPO thru 4/29, pos 4/30-5/10

             -PNA,  pos 4/28-5/1, neg 5/2-5/10

             -NAO thru 5/5; neutral 5/6-5/10

GEPS:   -EPO thru 4/29, pos 4/30-5/4, neg 5/5-5/7, pos 5/8-5/11

             -PNA thru 4/26, pos 4/28-5/1, neg 5/2-5/11   

             -NAO thru 5/5; pos 5/6-5/11

GEFS:   -EPO thru 4/29, pos 4/30-5/4, neg 5/5-5/11

             -PNA thru 4/26, pos 4/28-5/2, neg 5/3-5/11   

             -NAO thru 5/4, pos 5/5-5/9, neutral 5/10-5/11

WPO all negative thru 5/3, GEFS only negative afterward

 

MJO:    (WH Sectors) Strongest Convection & Vel Potential Phase 7/8 border  

GEFS Phase 7 to COD Phase 2; EPS Same (run ends 5/9). 

MVentrice Very Strong Phase 8, well into Phase 2 at end.    

MJO phases May Phases 8 & 1 Weak warm correlation in the Northeast; Phase 2 Cold

 

Strat: NASA Slowly weakening Wave 1 (to 90th percentile) & Wave 2 (to 50th percentile). EC similar.  

NAM/SPV:  Good-bye SPV, crossing the 0 kt line; see you next season.  Never ending trop induced cold on GFS. 

 

 "Have to see about a colder shot around the end of the month gaining width or strength." It did. Beyond that more confident than average about warmer than normal rebound. I know this is getting out into la la land and the EPO conflicts mean nothing, they don't get it right much beyond day 8. Giving the MJO credence and the final demise of the SPV, central third of May should be cooler than normal. My guess is the GEFS is moving things along too quickly. Beyond that, wait and see if MJO avoids the COD.  I did do a correlation check on the teleconnection indices for May. The NAO (map) & AO lose their winter correlation here, the others are as they were.

 

00z/22nd Ensemble Comparison 4/22-5/7.  Normal 850mb temp around +6C. 

GEFS: (day shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 26th, above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 7th. (end of run) 

GEPS:  (day longer) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 26th, (longer) above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 1st, near normal anomalies May 2nd & May 3rd, above normal anomalies May 4th thru May 7th (end of run).

EPS: (shorter & a warm split)  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Apr 24th, above normal anomalies Apr 25th, below normal anomalies Apr 26th, (warmer) above normal anomalies Apr 27th thru May 6th. (end of run)

nao.JPG

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2 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Not liking the dry stretch to end April/begin May. Setting things up for hot, dry weather. 

 

 

Wouldn't be basing anything off a 16 day op run. Same run 1 day later, proves the pt

 

gfs-deterministic-east-qpf_anom_16day-0885600.png

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Maybe not sensible weather long range, but from this site it sure looks like there has been and will continue to be decent sub-surface warming going on in the equatorial Pacific over the next few weeks. Starting to wonder about the coming winter's Enso state in light of it. I know we need to get beyond spring, but I admit to being a little surprised to see Euro favoring a Nino in the coming winter, though consensus now looking more La Nada.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

 

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