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Allsnow Will Get His 70F High & He Will Like It.


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15 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Some day the Euro will realize PHL exists and some day the GFS will realize PHL is half the size it thinks it is.  I don’t know if the models think the ground is colder, there is hidden snow cover, the oceans extend 120 miles inland or whatever. They always undersell warm days before we leaf out. You can set your clock by it.

I always wondered, can you explain why the first really warm days of the year always seem to be underestimated on the models? This is something I noticed growing up just by observation, long before I knew what weather models or forums were, because the highs would always be at least 3-4 degrees higher than what was predicted on the local Philly TV forecasts or the Weather Channel. Same situation every year, the first March / April warm days would always overperform.

Even just using that logic today, my hunch is that PHL gets to at least 77 degrees as the consensus seems to have been low 70s before NWS quickly upped it to 75 this morning.

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Thanks for the update! Next week is going to be glorious! 

I was going to ask you about the cybersnowstorm, but the 00z GFS already plowed the 18z run's storm into the Delaware River. Anyway, another day closer and I'd say the 60s are 99.2% in the bag an

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12 minutes ago, ACwx said:

I always wondered, can you explain why the first really warm days of the year always seem to be underestimated on the models? This is something I noticed growing up just by observation, long before I knew what weather models or forums were, because the highs would always be at least 3-4 degrees higher than what was predicted on the local Philly TV forecasts or the Weather Channel. Same situation every year, the first March / April warm days would always overperform.

Even just using that logic today, my hunch is that PHL gets to at least 77 degrees as the consensus seems to have been low 70s before NWS quickly upped it to 75 this morning.

From my observations, lack of vegetation (no leaves out) and sometimes dry late winter/early spring soil near the surface help us torch during this time of year.

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3 hours ago, ACwx said:

I always wondered, can you explain why the first really warm days of the year always seem to be underestimated on the models? This is something I noticed growing up just by observation, long before I knew what weather models or forums were, because the highs would always be at least 3-4 degrees higher than what was predicted on the local Philly TV forecasts or the Weather Channel. Same situation every year, the first March / April warm days would always overperform.

Even just using that logic today, my hunch is that PHL gets to at least 77 degrees as the consensus seems to have been low 70s before NWS quickly upped it to 75 this morning.

I did a thread one year in which the GFS MOS (mos is "suppose to" catch the modeling biases) was too low with their day 1 & 2 forecasts on any day in which the sun shone in March. 

At least in that regard GFS MOS at least made it into the 70s at PHL, NAM MOS just touched 70F with their last forecast.

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

850s and 925s would support upper 70s.  We'll see how much flow off the bays knock them off.  I would put the PHL over/under at 74F (giving the river something) for today.  PNE 76F.

If only I could forecast snow....

phl.JPG.95b0c78baaa335c5e3c1c7a22ab2629b.JPG

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50 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

If only I could forecast snow....

phl.JPG.95b0c78baaa335c5e3c1c7a22ab2629b.JPG

Why can't you get this excited when we have a shot for record lows?

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