Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 There is a scaling difference here, because all of the models enhance the pcpn intensity on this side of the Appalachians. That being said: 12z PIT observed w/e 0.03" Predicted: 00z Euro .09" 00z GGEM .14" 00z UKMET .07" 06z RGEM .18" 06z NAM .13" 06z 3km NAM .11" 06z GFS .15" 06z GFSv16 .10" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: For last Thursday? I was talking about the last Thursday event and on the NAM I'm seeing over 1" qpf for that event Whoops my bad. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: There is a scaling difference here, because all of the models enhance the pcpn intensity on this side of the Appalachians. That being said: 12z PIT observed w/e 0.03" Predicted: 00z Euro .09" 00z GGEM .14" 00z UKMET .07" 06z RGEM .18" 06z NAM .13" 06z 3km NAM .11" 06z GFS .15" 06z GFSv16 .10" Lol rgem wettest one of them all Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Lol rgem wettest one of them all radar says this will be impactful even if precip is 0.1-0.2" too high, should be fun Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, susqushawn said: radar says this will be impactful even if precip is 0.1-0.2" too high, should be fun Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Just now, tombo82685 said: Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event the 6z run is getting a bit closer to reality on rgem with .52, all the runs prior though to wet Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, susqushawn said: it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out it's thermals are really good, it nailed the last system with mix, but it's qpf can run very wet. the 18z run yesterday had like an inch of qpf in philly, I don't think so Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 nams playing catch up now snowier closer to city Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,300 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Just now, tombo82685 said: it's thermals are really good, it nailed the last system with mix, but it's qpf can run very wet. the 18z run yesterday had like an inch of qpf in philly, I don't think so oh wow i didn't see that Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJHurricane 287 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Multiple snow squall warnings being issued in Pennsylvania Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, susqushawn said: it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out Its sounding is off. This is not about the evolution which looks even better with an earlier arrival, its about the over the top qpf. Once a convecting model convects, unless it nails it right, the release of latent heat will just exacerbate the errors. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJHurricane 287 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: Multiple snow squall warnings being issued in Pennsylvania Seems like the WWA are highlighted on the NWS graphics over the snow squall warnings....if I’m correct in that, that’s poor communication, the squall warnings are more important Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 19 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: Seems like the WWA are highlighted on the NWS graphics over the snow squall warnings....if I’m correct in that, that’s poor communication, the squall warnings are more important That is something that is going to have to be addressed after this season is over in terms of appearance rankings. This is not a switch on the fly move any local NWS office can do. It is not typical to issue a snow squall warning while you have a winter weather advisory already in effect. SPS(s) get map coverage over advisories/warnings, so it can be changed. I remember for a while air quality alerts had a higher map display ranking over nowcasts. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Parsley said: That looks highly believable for the 4-6 hour event. Really nails the elevation factor. Very interesting test for it along the SE gradient line. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJHurricane 287 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 11 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: That is something that is going to have to be addressed after this season is over in terms of appearance rankings. This is not a switch on the fly move any local NWS office can do. It is not typical to issue a snow squall warning while you have a winter weather advisory already in effect. SPS(s) get map coverage over advisories/warnings, so it can be changed. I remember for a while air quality alerts had a higher map display ranking over nowcasts. Yeah I thought that was pretty rare (squalls inside an advisory). On the plus side most broadcast sources that I also follow on social media are all over the warnings and likely will be in their late morning/lunchtime broadcasts. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 6 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: Interesting event for this nextgen mesoscale model. (version 3, not 2 on SPC site) If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Parsley 6,141 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad. Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, Parsley said: Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co. It comes in pretty late. Maybe once it becomes operational it will arrive early. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 37 minutes ago, Parsley said: Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co. It did pretty well with the qpf also. PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50". I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44". ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,227 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 58 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad. Doesn't look bad here, map is 0.5 to 1" too high, but that's at 10:1 and we were lower Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Parsley 6,141 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: It did pretty well with the qpf also. PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50". I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44". ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing. Euro did well on QPF the runs leading up to the event here too. Believe it was in the 0.40"-0.50" range 3 runs in a row leading up to this. Again, for us up north who were cold enough for all snow this was about as sure bet as you could get for 2-5 inches. Telegraphed for days. Easy to forecast AND shovel. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: It did pretty well with the qpf also. PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50". I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44". ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing. So you're saying the .75-1" of qpf off the rgem isn't going to verify? Shocked Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,572 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 46 minutes ago, Parsley said: Euro did well on QPF the runs leading up to the event here too. Believe it was in the 0.40"-0.50" range 3 runs in a row leading up to this. Again, for us up north who were cold enough for all snow this was about as sure bet as you could get for 2-5 inches. Telegraphed for days. Easy to forecast AND shovel. I no longer look at NAM qpf so don’t know where it was. Other than the Canadian families this was one of the better qpf performances by all of them. Usually I can eyeball a winner, but they are close. GGEM is going to come in last by a comfortable margin. It had an 8” event one run at PHL, it’s water equivalent for that run was over 1”. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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