Wagons Close (North Better) Snow On 2/22.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

There is a scaling difference here, because all of the models enhance the pcpn intensity on this side of the Appalachians.  That being said:

12z PIT observed w/e 0.03"

Predicted:

00z Euro .09"

00z GGEM .14"

00z UKMET .07"

06z RGEM  .18"

06z NAM .13"

06z 3km NAM .11"

06z GFS .15"

06z GFSv16 .10"

 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

For last Thursday? I was talking about the last Thursday event and on the NAM I'm seeing over 1" qpf for that event

Whoops my bad.

[tombo82685 14,157]

1 minute ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

There is a scaling difference here, because all of the models enhance the pcpn intensity on this side of the Appalachians.  That being said:

12z PIT observed w/e 0.03"

Predicted:

00z Euro .09"

00z GGEM .14"

00z UKMET .07"

06z RGEM  .18"

06z NAM .13"

06z 3km NAM .11"

06z GFS .15"

06z GFSv16 .10"

 

Lol rgem wettest one of them all 

[susqushawn 3,279]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol rgem wettest one of them all 

radar says this will be impactful even if precip is 0.1-0.2" too high, should be fun

[tombo82685 14,157]

3 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

radar says this will be impactful even if precip is 0.1-0.2" too high, should be fun

Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event

[tombo82685 14,157]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event

the 6z run is getting a bit closer to  reality on rgem with .52, all the runs prior though to wet

[susqushawn 3,279]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Not saying it won't point I'm making Is it's to wet IMO and has been for this event

it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out

[tombo82685 14,157]

3 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out

it's thermals are really good, it nailed the last system with mix, but it's qpf can run very wet. the 18z run yesterday had like an inch of qpf in philly, I don't think so 

[susqushawn 3,279]

nams playing catch up now snowier closer to city

 

[susqushawn 3,279]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

it's thermals are really good, it nailed the last system with mix, but it's qpf can run very wet. the 18z run yesterday had like an inch of qpf in philly, I don't think so 

oh wow i didn't see that

[NJHurricane 280]

Multiple snow squall warnings being issued in Pennsylvania

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

26 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

it got the snow right in bwi/dc vs nam that's for sure, we'll see how it shakes out

Its sounding is off.  This is not about the evolution which looks even better with an earlier arrival, its about the over the top qpf.  Once a convecting model convects, unless it nails it right, the release of latent heat will just exacerbate the errors.

 

 

[NJHurricane 280]

20 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Multiple snow squall warnings being issued in Pennsylvania

Seems like the WWA are highlighted on the NWS graphics over the snow squall warnings....if I’m correct in that, that’s poor communication, the squall warnings are more important 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

19 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Seems like the WWA are highlighted on the NWS graphics over the snow squall warnings....if I’m correct in that, that’s poor communication, the squall warnings are more important 

That is something that is going to have to be addressed after this season is over in terms of appearance rankings.  This is not a switch on the fly move any local NWS office can do. It is not typical to issue a snow squall warning while you have a winter weather advisory already in effect. SPS(s) get map coverage over advisories/warnings, so it can be changed.  I remember for a while air quality alerts had a higher map display ranking over nowcasts. 

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

1 hour ago, Parsley said:

That looks highly believable for the 4-6 hour event. Really nails the elevation factor. 

Very interesting test for it along the SE gradient line.

[NJHurricane 280]

11 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

That is something that is going to have to be addressed after this season is over in terms of appearance rankings.  This is not a switch on the fly move any local NWS office can do. It is not typical to issue a snow squall warning while you have a winter weather advisory already in effect. SPS(s) get map coverage over advisories/warnings, so it can be changed.  I remember for a while air quality alerts had a higher map display ranking over nowcasts. 

Yeah I thought that was pretty rare (squalls inside an advisory). On the plus side most broadcast sources that I also follow on social media are all over the warnings and likely will be in their late morning/lunchtime broadcasts.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

6 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Interesting event for this nextgen mesoscale model.  (version 3, not 2 on SPC site)

If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad.

[Parsley 5,907]

17 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad.

Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

24 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co.

It comes in pretty late.  Maybe once it becomes operational it will arrive early.

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

37 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Did well up here with the 4" or so in extreme NW Mont. Co.

It did pretty well with the qpf also.  PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50".  I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44".  ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing.

[Chubbs 4,101]

58 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

If this map was pivoted by about 20-30 degrees clockwise and maybe add around an inch in the PHL NW burbs, it was not bad.

Doesn't look bad here, map is  0.5 to 1" too high, but that's at 10:1 and we were lower

[Parsley 5,907]

20 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

It did pretty well with the qpf also.  PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50".  I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44".  ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing.

Euro did well on QPF the runs leading up to the event here too. Believe it was in the 0.40"-0.50" range 3 runs in a row leading up to this. Again, for us up north who were cold enough for all snow this was about as sure bet as you could get for 2-5 inches. Telegraphed for days. Easy to forecast AND shovel. 

[tombo82685 14,157]

1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

It did pretty well with the qpf also.  PHL & PNE are going to be right around 0.50".  I also see TTN at 0.35" (that may be low), PTW & ABE at 0.40", ILG at 0.41", Blue Bell & BWI at 0.44".  ACY at 0.64" but still heavy rain ongoing.

So you're saying the .75-1" of qpf off the rgem isn't going to verify? Shocked

[Rainshadow6.6 10,335]

46 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Euro did well on QPF the runs leading up to the event here too. Believe it was in the 0.40"-0.50" range 3 runs in a row leading up to this. Again, for us up north who were cold enough for all snow this was about as sure bet as you could get for 2-5 inches. Telegraphed for days. Easy to forecast AND shovel. 

I no longer look at NAM qpf so don’t know where it was. Other than the Canadian families this was one of the better qpf performances by all of them. Usually I can eyeball a winner, but they are close. GGEM is going to come in last by a comfortable margin. It had an 8” event one run at PHL, it’s water equivalent for that run was over 1”.