Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: 18z Gem snowfall That would be absolutely crazy if 3 storms in a row jackpot the same exact region. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
colonel_kurtz 3,334 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 8 hours ago, Heisenberg said: Next winter you guys gonna miss me. Think I’m like 80% most likely headed to Worcester. Expect +300% snow next year the record low seasonal at Worcester is 21" in 1955, look for that record to be challenged next season on the bright side it's only 5 hrs. to Montreal so now a chase to Canada is in the cards, make sure your passport is current seriously you'll be missed, I love your passion & enthusiasm as well as your return to posting as an annual rite of winter 9 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dryslotted 373 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said: the record low seasonal at Worcester is 21" in 1955, look for that record to be challenged next season on the bright side it's only 5 hrs. to Montreal so now a chase to Canada is in the cards, make sure your passport is current seriously you'll be missed, I love your passion & enthusiasm as well as your return to posting as an annual rite of winter Agree 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 00z NAM got a lot colder. Might be recognizing the rates etc. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said: the record low seasonal at Worcester is 21" in 1955, look for that record to be challenged next season on the bright side it's only 5 hrs. to Montreal so now a chase to Canada is in the cards, make sure your passport is current seriously you'll be missed, I love your passion & enthusiasm as well as your return to posting as an annual rite of winter For sure haha. I smell a wagons south winter. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Run after run after run. Well see if the rgem pulls it out or if it just can’t handle the thermals with this storm Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Run after run after run. Well see if the rgem pulls it out or if it just can’t handle the thermals with this storm It might be right with thermals but I think it’s to wet Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Allsnow 936 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: It might be right with thermals but I think it’s to wet Last storm you hit the jackpot while discounting the Nam/Rgem. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Gfs just got colder, shifted snow SE 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Last storm you hit the jackpot while discounting the Nam/Rgem. And they were both way to wet. Go look at Tony’s postings in qpf thread. Never said they didn’t have the right idea where banding is or thermals but they just go way insane with qpf and broad brush it to much. Rgem qpf to me is to wet Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 674 Posted February 22 Author Report Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Run after run after run. Well see if the rgem pulls it out or if it just can’t handle the thermals with this storm I'll let you know tomorrow because my office is under the 6" shading. If history is any guide, I won't be reporting 6". Lol 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,761 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Guidance keeps shifting the snow SE...Idk whats going to happen, but this is the first NAM run to put decent snow over my house and ive been on the edge of most gradients 3km. PARA 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,908 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Lol, things could get wild for an hour or 2 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,226 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 cobb off the 06 NAM a little better vs 18z ytday - I95 (phl,ilg,pne,ttn) is an inch or so - phl = 1.1, Coatesvillle is 2.7", abe is the winner at 4.5, rdg+lns just under 4, Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,226 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 19 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Lol, things could get wild for an hour or 2 Pivotal HRRR indicates sleet is possible with 850mb warm punch (hours don't match) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,226 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 35 minutes ago, Chubbs said: Pivotal HRRR indicates sleet is possible with 850mb warm punch (hours don't match) Latest HRRR is a tic cooler, going to be a nowcast, heavy rates vs warm air 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,569 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Latest HRRR is a tic cooler, going to be a nowcast, heavy rates vs warm air Spring storm plus add elevation to the mix. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,569 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 9 hours ago, tombo82685 said: And they were both way to wet. Go look at Tony’s postings in qpf thread. Never said they didn’t have the right idea where banding is or thermals but they just go way insane with qpf and broad brush it to much. Rgem qpf to me is to wet 00z RGEM 0.62" in PHL. 48hr duration event Thu-Fri in PHL 0.69". Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,569 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Interesting event for this nextgen mesoscale model. (version 3, not 2 on SPC site) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: 00z RGEM 0.62" in PHL. 48hr duration event Thu-Fri in PHL 0.69". Thsrs pretty good then with rgem. Hb nam? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Parsley 6,137 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: Interesting event for this nextgen mesoscale model. (version 3, not 2 on SPC site) That looks highly believable for the 4-6 hour event. Really nails the elevation factor. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
NJHurricane 287 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 Seems like its off to a good start to our south. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,569 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Thsrs pretty good then with rgem. Hb nam? 0.37" for PHL (00z). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,569 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: Seems like its off to a good start to our south. If it snows in DC, it snows in Philly. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,274 Posted February 22 Report Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: 0.37" for PHL (00z). For last Thursday? I was talking about the last Thursday event and on the NAM I'm seeing over 1" qpf for that event Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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