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Wagons Close (North Better) Snow On 2/22.


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Fwiw, 18z Euro has noticeably lower heights along the east coast Monday morning just ahead of that system  heading se from Michigan.  Not the ideal setup for  snow on our area, but the Euro, Ukie, and Cmc are all pretty emphatic about it spreading a few inches of snow into our area.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-3995200.png

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the record low seasonal at Worcester is 21" in 1955, look for that record to be challenged next season on the bright side it's only 5 hrs. to Montreal so now a chase to Canada is in the cards, ma

Did you take that job to get in the better snow?

Ill be working in Conshohocken so ill be a bit NW of city. Should be a fun few hours. 

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14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Fwiw, 18z Euro has noticeably lower heights along the east coast Monday morning just ahead of that system  heading se from Michigan.  Not the ideal setup for  snow on our area, but the Euro, Ukie, and Cmc are all pretty emphatic about it spreading a few inches of snow into our area.

 

timing though is a little eeee. Wish it was more in the morning instead of afternoon. 

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Somehow I don't envision 4.5" of snow at PHL today (alot of 2 pluses in there regardless). The Euro has been too much in love with day 2 from the get go with today's system.  Hopefully this is not a sign for ABE (which looks better than PHL) for Monday.

 

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Euro below freezing column except directly at surface city n&w.  City 35 at height.  Colder than 0z but dont know 6z. 

Intensity driven and guidance showing a nice burst as it rolls through.   I could see 1-3" fall line NW w/ a Gilly 4" gigi topper.  It's cold and dry with HP just having departed

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43 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I could see 1-3" fall line NW w/ a Gilly 4" gigi topper.  It's cold and dry with HP just having departed

That seems like a good call at this juncture. Of course, things will shift a few dozen times before Monday morning. 😄

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4 minutes ago, JCT777 said:

That seems like a good call at this juncture. Of course, things will shift a few dozen times before Monday morning. 😄

Usually with these quick moving cutting waves and southerly flow ahead of it the trend is warmer and wetter.  With HP just 12 hours prior being directly overhead, I suspect our antecedent airmass will be favorable enough at the onset to snow.  The qpf is also getting enhanced as it crosses the Apps, which is unlike other similar events where it dries out, so something else may be at play aiding in that enhancement that I'm too lazy to look deeper into.  So relatively heavier precip rolls in quickly before column caves to southerly flow, which it inevitably will before it shuts off

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Usually with these quick moving cutting waves and southerly flow ahead of it the trend is warmer and wetter.  With HP just 12 hours prior being directly overhead, I suspect our antecedent airmass will be favorable enough at the onset to snow.  The qpf is also getting enhanced as it crosses the Apps, which is unlike other similar events where it dries out, so something else may be at play aiding in that enhancement that I'm too lazy to look deeper into.  So relatively heavier precip rolls in quickly before column caves to southerly flow, which it inevitably will before it shuts off

I don’t know if it is because it is near convective. Strong LLJ predicted TTs in mid 40s. The way the NAM is juiced and the GFS is blah looks like a summer CFP. 

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For the new Dr No to show snow even S of PHL, during the peak heating of a late February afternoon, with a southerly flow, secures more confidence in my mind that a festive afternoon coming Monday for 4-6 hours.

image.png.d7aadec30a405505b8a6a22891e85711.png

Nam is snow north of fall line to quick rain. 1-3" far NW, tick colder at 6z.  Blows up a squall line just as it passes offshore.  This is a summer tstorm cfp @Rainshadow6.6

Rgem shifted best qpf axis south, still mainly snow to rain.  1-3" region wide

Ggem 1-3" region wide

Gfs 1-3" fall line NW

Para gfs 1-3" city n&w w/ nice burst

Euro 1-3" nw

 

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52 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

For the new Dr No to show snow even S of PHL, during the peak heating of a late February afternoon, with a southerly flow, secures more confidence in my mind that a festive afternoon coming Monday for 4-6 hours.

image.png.d7aadec30a405505b8a6a22891e85711.png

Nam is snow north of fall line to quick rain. 1-3" far NW, tick colder at 6z.  Blows up a squall line just as it passes offshore.  This is a summer tstorm cfp @Rainshadow6.6

Rgem shifted best qpf axis south, still mainly snow to rain.  1-3" region wide

Ggem 1-3" region wide

Gfs 1-3" fall line NW

Para gfs 1-3" city n&w w/ nice burst

Euro 1-3" nw

 

Timing is bad, which will hurt accumulation, but snow/sleet cover will help. I could see 1-3" on the snow pack and wet roads, N+W favored. As Tom says faster is better. Delaying past 3 PM could also help with accumulation.

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3 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Timing for sure is unfavorable but always nice to see flakes falling.  This will quickly melt anyway with the boring zonal look midweek 

Yes, forgot to mention that good rates will help. Would be gone in a day without the pack, but may stick around. The pack itself will melt slowly, at least mine will, very high moisture content.

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15 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

I don’t know if it is because it is near convective. Strong LLJ predicted TTs in mid 40s. The way the NAM is juiced and the GFS is blah looks like a summer CFP. 

Thundersnow?

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Thundersnow?

I have to find an easy button for looking at convective parameters at home.  It is not a slam dunk, but GFS still has TT predicted into the mid 40s which suggest some convectiveness with this even if it doesn't reach the level of thunder.

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