Mitchnick 673 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Fwiw, 18z Euro has noticeably lower heights along the east coast Monday morning just ahead of that system heading se from Michigan. Not the ideal setup for snow on our area, but the Euro, Ukie, and Cmc are all pretty emphatic about it spreading a few inches of snow into our area. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,157 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Fwiw, 18z Euro has noticeably lower heights along the east coast Monday morning just ahead of that system heading se from Michigan. Not the ideal setup for snow on our area, but the Euro, Ukie, and Cmc are all pretty emphatic about it spreading a few inches of snow into our area. timing though is a little eeee. Wish it was more in the morning instead of afternoon. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,335 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Somehow I don't envision 4.5" of snow at PHL today (alot of 2 pluses in there regardless). The Euro has been too much in love with day 2 from the get go with today's system. Hopefully this is not a sign for ABE (which looks better than PHL) for Monday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,612 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Hmmm...cold bias? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,612 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Closer look, BL temp is like 33 near the city. Probably white rain? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,335 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 18 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: Hmmm...cold bias? How much of that is today? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: How much of that is today? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Gfs for this: close for city.. maybe white rain? Nam was a bit warmer at surface (low 40’s I believe) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 673 Posted February 19 Author Report Share Posted February 19 Ukie for Monday 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 673 Posted February 19 Author Report Share Posted February 19 Euro not very very impressed this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=snku_006h&rh=2021021912&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Euro below freezing column except directly at surface city n&w. City 35 at height. Colder than 0z but dont know 6z. Intensity driven and guidance showing a nice burst as it rolls through. I could see 1-3" fall line NW w/ a Gilly 4" gigi topper. It's cold and dry with HP just having departed 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 Changing to rain as intensity wanes especially. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JCT777 270 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 43 minutes ago, susqushawn said: I could see 1-3" fall line NW w/ a Gilly 4" gigi topper. It's cold and dry with HP just having departed That seems like a good call at this juncture. Of course, things will shift a few dozen times before Monday morning. 😄 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, JCT777 said: That seems like a good call at this juncture. Of course, things will shift a few dozen times before Monday morning. 😄 Usually with these quick moving cutting waves and southerly flow ahead of it the trend is warmer and wetter. With HP just 12 hours prior being directly overhead, I suspect our antecedent airmass will be favorable enough at the onset to snow. The qpf is also getting enhanced as it crosses the Apps, which is unlike other similar events where it dries out, so something else may be at play aiding in that enhancement that I'm too lazy to look deeper into. So relatively heavier precip rolls in quickly before column caves to southerly flow, which it inevitably will before it shuts off 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,335 Posted February 19 Report Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, susqushawn said: Usually with these quick moving cutting waves and southerly flow ahead of it the trend is warmer and wetter. With HP just 12 hours prior being directly overhead, I suspect our antecedent airmass will be favorable enough at the onset to snow. The qpf is also getting enhanced as it crosses the Apps, which is unlike other similar events where it dries out, so something else may be at play aiding in that enhancement that I'm too lazy to look deeper into. So relatively heavier precip rolls in quickly before column caves to southerly flow, which it inevitably will before it shuts off I don’t know if it is because it is near convective. Strong LLJ predicted TTs in mid 40s. The way the NAM is juiced and the GFS is blah looks like a summer CFP. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,157 Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 Faster this comes in the better for everyone. Slower, worse Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted Saturday at 10:05 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 10:05 AM For the new Dr No to show snow even S of PHL, during the peak heating of a late February afternoon, with a southerly flow, secures more confidence in my mind that a festive afternoon coming Monday for 4-6 hours. Nam is snow north of fall line to quick rain. 1-3" far NW, tick colder at 6z. Blows up a squall line just as it passes offshore. This is a summer tstorm cfp @Rainshadow6.6 Rgem shifted best qpf axis south, still mainly snow to rain. 1-3" region wide Ggem 1-3" region wide Gfs 1-3" fall line NW Para gfs 1-3" city n&w w/ nice burst Euro 1-3" nw 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted Saturday at 11:04 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:04 AM Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,101 Posted Saturday at 11:05 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:05 AM 52 minutes ago, susqushawn said: For the new Dr No to show snow even S of PHL, during the peak heating of a late February afternoon, with a southerly flow, secures more confidence in my mind that a festive afternoon coming Monday for 4-6 hours. Nam is snow north of fall line to quick rain. 1-3" far NW, tick colder at 6z. Blows up a squall line just as it passes offshore. This is a summer tstorm cfp @Rainshadow6.6 Rgem shifted best qpf axis south, still mainly snow to rain. 1-3" region wide Ggem 1-3" region wide Gfs 1-3" fall line NW Para gfs 1-3" city n&w w/ nice burst Euro 1-3" nw Timing is bad, which will hurt accumulation, but snow/sleet cover will help. I could see 1-3" on the snow pack and wet roads, N+W favored. As Tom says faster is better. Delaying past 3 PM could also help with accumulation. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,101 Posted Saturday at 11:07 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:07 AM 2 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Map makes sense, S winds hurt the most close to the ocean. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,279 Posted Saturday at 11:08 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:08 AM Timing for sure is unfavorable but always nice to see flakes falling. This will quickly melt anyway with the boring zonal look midweek Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,101 Posted Saturday at 11:22 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:22 AM 3 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Timing for sure is unfavorable but always nice to see flakes falling. This will quickly melt anyway with the boring zonal look midweek Yes, forgot to mention that good rates will help. Would be gone in a day without the pack, but may stick around. The pack itself will melt slowly, at least mine will, very high moisture content. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chubbs 4,101 Posted Saturday at 11:41 AM Report Share Posted Saturday at 11:41 AM 15 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said: I don’t know if it is because it is near convective. Strong LLJ predicted TTs in mid 40s. The way the NAM is juiced and the GFS is blah looks like a summer CFP. Thundersnow? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rainshadow6.6 10,335 Posted Saturday at 12:28 PM Report Share Posted Saturday at 12:28 PM 1 hour ago, Chubbs said: Thundersnow? I have to find an easy button for looking at convective parameters at home. It is not a slam dunk, but GFS still has TT predicted into the mid 40s which suggest some convectiveness with this even if it doesn't reach the level of thunder. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,612 Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM Report Share Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM 6z EURO is 4 degrees colder (34 deg vs 38) than 00z at the surface @ 66 hrs, so it's a pretty good tick colder thru the region. Idk if this will benefit us just pointing it out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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