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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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35 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This is not a critique of the NWS forecast, more of a question how or can you forecast a max band like this (inside blue 8-11") any time in advance.  I have an opinion, just wondering what you think is the best way of relying this information.  You are not forecasting for your backyard, you are forecasting for this entire area.

150215299_3601169356675802_781311516884676773_n.jpg.9d30e3fffb4447ca554312a4af579f0b.jpg 

This was the first time I did a snow map for family and friends where i did general amounts then said "add 3 where the best banding set up". Mostly cause i was tired of always explaining this exact scenario the past couple of storms. Now i was still low but had i said add another 3-5 i would have been more accurate. I also showed them  from the past couple of storms using radar captures of what i meant by "best banding". It worked well, I think,  then again I just deal with family and friends and dont have to deal with Angry Al on facebook who didn't get 27" in their back yard and therefor it didn't snow. 

But as always it will come down to the general public's ability to retain the information that's presented. As you point out...people only really care about their backyard. 

 

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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This is not a critique of the NWS forecast, more of a question how or can you forecast a max band like this (inside blue 8-11") any time in advance.  I have an opinion, just wondering what you think is the best way of relying this information.  You are not forecasting for your backyard, you are forecasting for this entire area.

150215299_3601169356675802_781311516884676773_n.jpg.9d30e3fffb4447ca554312a4af579f0b.jpg 

Difficult, but I had a couple of thoughts: 1) widen the range i.e 6-8 becomes 5-9 or 4-10, 2) Use a broad brush like 2-6" with a band of higher values but do something to indicate placement uncertainty like fuzzing edges, arrows, and/or multiple bands.

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This is not a critique of the NWS forecast, more of a question how or can you forecast a max band like this (inside blue 8-11") any time in advance.  I have an opinion, just wondering what you think is the best way of relying this information.  You are not forecasting for your backyard, you are forecasting for this entire area.

150215299_3601169356675802_781311516884676773_n.jpg.9d30e3fffb4447ca554312a4af579f0b.jpg 

Basically the way I describe my anticipated snow amounts to family and friends is with a range and then a “max. potential #”. 

So, in this case it was 3-6” inches....10” max potential (likelihood something like <20%). 
 

 

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