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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

59 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

One slow and steady pulling of the rug beginning 36-48 hours before game time.  The story of modeling all season.

It reminds me of 2000-2001. Almost every storm that Winter trended north to just within a few hours of the storm. 12/30/00 trended north at the last minute. PHL was the border. People woke up that morning south and west of PHL to sunny skies when they expected a foot.

 

Mid January 2001, I can't remember the exact date we were supposed to get 6+ inches but the 500mb low didn't dig far enough south so only NYC northeast saw most of the snow. We got a few inches but it wasn't as big as it was supposed to on the warning.

 

2/22/01 Was supposed to stay south in the cold pattern we were in. The storm trended north at the last minute and I remember measuring 7-8 inches of the fluffiest, lightest, snow I can ever remember. Snow must have been close 20:1 snow to rain ratios that night.

 

3/5/01 Do I even have to explain that one? The boys on the weather forum I was posted on were crushed except for Interior Southern New England points north. Trended north at the last minute going from historic storm to historic bust.

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8 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

It reminds me of 2000-2001. Almost every storm that Winter trended north to just within a few hours of the storm. 12/30/00 trended north at the last minute. PHL was the border. People woke up that morning south and west of PHL to sunny skies when they expected a foot.

 

Mid January 2001, I can't remember the exact date we were supposed to get 6+ inches but the 500mb low didn't dig far enough south so only NYC northeast saw most of the snow. We got a few inches but it wasn't as big as it was supposed to on the warning.

 

2/22/01 Was supposed to stay south in the cold pattern we were in. The storm trended north at the last minute and I remember measuring 7-8 inches of the fluffiest, lightest, snow I can ever remember. Snow must have been close 20:1 snow to rain ratios that night.

 

3/5/01 Do I even have to explain that one? The boys on the weather forum I was posted on were crushed except for Interior Southern New England points north. Trended north at the last minute going from historic storm to historic bust.

Living 2 miles north of Bwi at the time, the entire winter was only 11" or 12". I remember wishing I was in Philly that year.

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This is going to be a close call. If you look at 6z NAM vs the radar. For the city it is going to depend on how that main thump band sets up. Radar looks JUST good enough to me. Maybe a NAM/EURO compromise. You can see the fronto band already starting to form a bit on radar. Places S of it could be dealing with subsidence and precip issues. 

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14 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Mt holly states cutback along 95 due to faster transition to sleet and cutback nw due to less overall qpf.  Ultimately shaves off maybe 1"

image.png.8b85b601774aa8348f3a4e65fa57ddab.png

 

Looks good. Sticking with 3-6" for I95, but think it will be closer to 6" than 3"

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Another event where banded snow did not hit PHL.  We will see how much is added to the total tomorrow, right now the least snowiest model is in the lead.  I couldn't get the two previous versions they were gone, but the new GFS would have come in last based on its four most recent forecasts.

45.JPG.e5269e131fbd428b789c64017a160f1b.JPG

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Another event where banded snow did not hit PHL.  We will see how much is added to the total tomorrow, right now the least snowiest model is in the lead.  I couldn't get the two previous versions they were gone, but the new GFS would have come in last based on its four most recent forecasts.

45.JPG.e5269e131fbd428b789c64017a160f1b.JPG

Curious how the rgem would have scored. Felt like the Canadians had another good storm. Did a good job the the precipitation axis and the sleet threat for I95. NAM also gets some props for mixing.

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On 2/19/2021 at 7:30 AM, Chubbs said:

Curious how the rgem would have scored. Felt like the Canadians had another good storm. Did a good job the the precipitation axis and the sleet threat for I95. NAM also gets some props for mixing.

Because this turned into a part II er on Friday we would have had only four sounding runs of the NAM & RGEM that covered the entire event.  That being said, I caught the NAM (10:1, COBB disappears in archive mode) and it did very well for PHL.  It would have come in first place.

 

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This is not a critique of the NWS forecast, more of a question how or can you forecast a max band like this (inside blue 8-11") any time in advance.  I have an opinion, just wondering what you think is the best way of relying this information.  You are not forecasting for your backyard, you are forecasting for this entire area.

150215299_3601169356675802_781311516884676773_n.jpg.9d30e3fffb4447ca554312a4af579f0b.jpg 

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On 2/19/2021 at 7:30 AM, Chubbs said:

Curious how the rgem would have scored. Felt like the Canadians had another good storm. Did a good job the the precipitation axis and the sleet threat for I95. NAM also gets some props for mixing.

I could only go back two runs on the RDPS and it did have this almost perfectly misplaced banding shadow on its last sounding run.  The GGEM had 5.1" on this run for PHL. 

ff.JPG.85761f3666cdff865710f7ea8a194029.JPG

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

This is not a critique of the NWS forecast, more of a question how or can you forecast a max band like this (inside blue 8-11") any time in advance.  I have an opinion, just wondering what you think is the best way of relying this information.  You are not forecasting for your backyard, you are forecasting for this entire area.

150215299_3601169356675802_781311516884676773_n.jpg.9d30e3fffb4447ca554312a4af579f0b.jpg 

I’m grateful I don’t have to forecast these events....as a hobbyist, when my friend/family/coworker cohort looks to me for my amateur weather nerd opinions I’ve come around to saying “I’m expecting 3-6” snow and ice impact but due to uncertainty I’m *preparing* for 6-9” impact.  

Just my 2 cents but I feel like certain broadcast sources who have hyped/branded the idea of hyper local forecasts “for your neighborhood” gives the public wildly unrealistic expectations that it’s possible to consistently forecast these sometimes narrowly experienced banding features.

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