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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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34 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Just don't let it happen again or else you will lose 30 yards off your drive which I will begrudgingly take.  ;)

Oh man Tony, that is funny.  One of these times we need to set up a zoom session, but wait, that might be confusing on like where to unmute or mute folks button. 

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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

10 minutes ago, ezweather said:

Oh man Tony, that is funny.  One of these times we need to set up a zoom session, but wait, that might be confusing on like where to unmute or mute folks button. 

You should come to one of the Tony's annual golfing events, that way you can use Shawn's drives.

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

You should come to one of the Tony's annual golfing events, that way you can use Shawn's drives.

Its amazing how many folks I know that love to play golf. As long as its above 40, they'll play, but that wind is another story.  This time of year, when you get to April or when it hits 70, it can still be chilly out there. Its that wind is what can really make it miserable.. 

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

You should come to one of the Tony's annual golfing events, that way you can use Shawn's drives.

He can put up a gale watch too and then go home.

I was kind of expecting the nam to cool its fgen jets a bit reading Tom's post, but it is still fairly strong.  Difference vs 06z is that it is farther southeast. My lame attempt to put where the banded pcpn would be.  It continues on this same path.  It moves offshore 19z-20z.

6.JPG.97cc37d405740990c18440d6199e98c9.JPG

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17 minutes ago, ezweather said:

Its amazing how many folks I know that love to play golf. As long as its above 40, they'll play, but that wind is another story.  This time of year, when you get to April or when it hits 70, it can still be chilly out there. Its that wind is what can really make it miserable.. 

The last time I golfed this year (at Kresson) it clouded over and temperatures were falling into the upper 30s with a north wind.  It was cold.

This way I won't have to move this to banter.  This is divided by 6 instead of 5. Then again given there is some sleet in this plus the modeling general wet bias, it may not be a bad number for PHL.  For all the nuances in the different runs, they are all pretty close.  

66.JPG.4c287535bfd65b8fbb9b8f78f83d7ff4.JPG

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

He can put up a gale watch too and then go home.

I was kind of expecting the nam to cool its fgen jets a bit reading Tom's post, but it is still fairly strong.  Difference vs 06z is that it is farther southeast. My lame attempt to put where the banded pcpn would be.  It continues on this same path.  It moves offshore 19z-20z.

 

It did, it went from this, to this. Also shifted south as you stated. 

nam-218-all-ma-z700_speed-3671200 (1).png

nam-218-all-ma-z700_speed-3671200.png

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

The last time I golfed this year (at Kresson) it clouded over and temperatures were falling into the upper 30s with a north wind.  It was cold.

This way I won't have to move this to banter.  This is divided by 6 instead of 5. Then again given there is some sleet in this plus the modeling general wet bias, it may not be a bad number for PHL.  For all the nuances in the different runs, they are all pretty close.  

66.JPG.4c287535bfd65b8fbb9b8f78f83d7ff4.JPG

That's really fascinating!

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49 minutes ago, ezweather said:

Oh man Tony, that is funny.  One of these times we need to set up a zoom session, but wait, that might be confusing on like where to unmute or mute folks button. 

I think we should do a zoom session - great idea! I am all in if any interest out there!

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1 hour ago, hm2 said:

FWIW, at least the para has a LLJ more like the ECMWF. The old GFS is too weak and the NAM is coming back down towards ECMWF/para.

Willing to bet here gfs is wrong with its qpf . As you stated most of the models are aligned more with the euro in terms of LLJ strength with nam on one end of spectrum and gfs on the other. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Willing to bet here gfs is wrong with its qpf here. As you stated most of the models are aligned more with the euro in terms of LLJ strength with nam on one end of spectrum and gfs on the other. 

Here as in PTW?

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Here as in PTW?

I deleted that part, but as a whole. It's LLJ is much weaker than all the other models. Increase that should increase waa precip

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I deleted that part, but as a whole. It's LLJ is much weaker than all the other models. Increase that should increase waa precip

Basically I think with meh LLJ its paltry on qpf end of things for the thump part. Which in turn allows mid levels to go faster.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

You should come to one of the Tony's annual golfing events, that way you can use Shawn's drives.

I played all of 3 rounds last year and blew out a shoulder.  And turned 40.  Does that mean I am relinquished to the pickleball court?

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Not sure whats up with weatherbell, stuck at 18hrs again, but this run looks warmer thickness wise. If we are using that as snow guide looks like 4 for philly on front end thump. Coastal system is dead this run  

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