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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

Just now, susqushawn said:

I was being sarcastic but obviously that wouldn't be picked up by all.  I know it's always under representative.  Lo siento mucho senor

Wasn’t trying to single you out just saw you post it but I think we can all agree those maps suck 

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My conclusion is this feels like a nowcast situation with all these placement differences all bouncing around within the same goalposts.  Wildcards will be banding, speed of warm layer intrusion, dryslot, 2nd coastal enhancement (or not)

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

depends on your back yard but rgem is not drastically different, bit drier, similar focal area for WAA

db87e339-e1b7-4a1c-842a-368811fa663d.gif

Very eps like with snow axis 

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Just now, susqushawn said:

My conclusion is this feels like a nowcast situation with all these placement differences all bouncing around within the same goalposts.  Wildcards will be banding, speed of warm layer intrusion, dryslot, 2nd coastal enhancement (or not)

Agreed 100%. Best to just wake up and see what happens. You will know rather quickly where this is headed 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Including costal fwiw 

F305D709-2EE2-4B77-8782-182083343AB6.png

Anything prior to 15z would accumulate. Anything after that unless December rates would just be putty flakes IMO 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Agreed 100%. Best to just wake up and see what happens. You will know rather quickly where this is headed 

I'll be camping out downstairs with the kids, snowlights ablaze, wide awake with only 3 hours of sleep and loving it.  

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Seriously we need to stop posting tidbit maps, they are terrible.  Count sleet as snow and for some reason their algorithm for snow doesn’t make any sense in regards to qpf. Philly gets .4 qpf with temps in the 20s and can’t get an inch? I don’t think so. 

Can't use ICON snowfall maps off of Tidbits.

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58 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

I shouldn't have said southeastern part b/c it really applies to the entire coastal plain and as you head north and west you are required to sweat less.  I've lived within 30 miles in all directions of Philly my entire 43 years on this great Earth and sweating the R/S line and taxes are the only constants in my life! 


I grew up in Queens, lives there until I was 25, and it was the same thing there too

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I hope this does not confuse anyone.

The Euro separation is because it is stronger with wave 2 snow than the other ensembles.  I saw at least one member that had more snow on Friday than Thursday.

Anyway you can see the number of members that reach the 6" criteria on Thursday alone.  The previous number is at the end of the entire event.  So the tipping point for reaching 6" or more on the EPS is because of the additional snow on Friday.  11 of the 51 members have 2" or more on Friday.  I will stop now.  I am confusing myself.

snow.JPG.0f20d5143bdbf5da47f1dd86d123284b.JPG

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

I hope this does not confuse anyone.

The Euro separation is because it is stronger with wave 2 snow than the other ensembles.  I saw at least one member that had more snow on Friday than Thursday.

Anyway you can see the number of members that reach the 6" criteria on Thursday alone.  The previous number is at the end of the entire event.  So the tipping point for reaching 6" or more on the EPS is because of the additional snow on Friday.  11 of the 51 members have 2" or more on Friday.  I will stop now.  I am confusing myself.

snow.JPG.0f20d5143bdbf5da47f1dd86d123284b.JPG

Can you please stop confusing us

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl Afd is a top notch write up. Really hits on the complexity of this event 

Chad is a very sharp person.  Patrick grew up in Buffalo, so events like this make him yawn. If you want to see snow, I'll show you snow....  ;)

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Chad is a very sharp person.  Patrick grew up in Buffalo, so events like this make him yawn. If you want to see snow, I'll show you snow....  ;)

haha. Thanks for sharing that. Buffalo would have thrown out a special weather statement and called it a day 

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59 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

My guess would be up around 7 or so 

PHL Cobb - 6.4".  On 18z NAM PHL's best snows are before 10AM, then snow/sleet to 2pm. Can see kink below where accumulation rate slows.

Screenshot_2021-02-17 Meteogram Generator.png

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Both gfs runs at 18z going with less thump and more costal 

FWIW, at least the para has a LLJ more like the ECMWF. The old GFS is too weak and the NAM is coming back down towards ECMWF/para.

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