Jump to content

February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 977
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

21 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Looking at euro more in depth....

You know that initial finger band of precip that extends out from the South? You see it on the NAM & other models too...well the 18z EURO had that finger farther N. There's lighter precip south of it. It eventually fills in, but that kind of sets up your initial frontal boundary i guess? Idk. You can see it here...

 

finger1.png

finger2.png

12z had a similar qpf pattern (below). One reason N+W is doing better is just more early qpf.

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021612.qpf_006h.conus.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM is slowly coming around, may take till 6 hrs before the event but its coming around. QPF should be less since we aren't ripping a 85kt h7 jet this run and now down to 65 kt 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

700mb jet is toned down

 

it's way to amped up at h7. QPF will be down and still has some more slashing to go. Maybe thursday morning it will come around

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

it's way to amped up at h7. QPF will be down and still has some more slashing to go. Maybe thursday morning it will come around

Yes, its getting there.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

it's way to amped up at h7. QPF will be down and still has some more slashing to go. Maybe thursday morning it will come around

yeah its doing its normal thing, misplacing features, crazy qpf numbers. Each run should progressively look more realistic up until 6z thursday lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean the more im looking at everything this just seems like a huge thump to pretty much light sleet/snow maybe even freezing rain mix for the city. I dont think philly has sleet issues until the main batch is through. The changeover line should be moving pretty steadily with the precip speed. 

3km NAM looks realistic to me. Just cut down the 1" qpf to maybe like .7-.9

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I mean the more im looking at everything this just seems like a huge thump to pretty much light sleet/snow mix. I dont think philly has sleet issues until the main batch is through. The changeover line should be moving pretty steadily with the precip speed. 

That's it. Get in the initial thump, keep from sleeting to much, and you are home free.

Link to post
Share on other sites

3km NAM is just that. (for city) Snow starts around 6-7am, touch earlier to the West. Progressively gets heavier. The main batch is out of here by 3pm. That gives you 6-8 hours of mod-heavy snow to accumulate. So like 4-8", with isolated 10-12" spots to the NW where it started earlier. After that the mid levels are pretty shot. The radar becomes very patchy and sleety around the city. You may muster up some accumulations of sleet potentially, maybe some snow to the NW? That part of the storm doesnt really interest me at all. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM delays the front end kind of like the ICON. Snow doesnt start until like 9am it looks like and is sleet with the back edge of the thump by 2. That only gives you about 5 hours of snow. Not a fan of that camp. Hope we are not headed that way.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Warm layer pushing in quicker across the board @ 6z, between 11am-2pm PHL after 0.2-0.4 snow.  Faster S less snow, slower N more snow.  Sounds like a typical Philly storm.  That lead crazy fronto band has waned but still a nice 3-9 hours of snow IYBY depending on locale.  Add'l bumps N will focus heavier snows across Lehigh Valley vs Del Val.

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Nams bit warmer, drier.  Flip to sleet philly around noon/1pm.  

6z rgem is sorta a dud with total qpf and snow it seems..was hoping I was looking at the wrong model. Just noise?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...