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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

1 minute ago, Rainshadow6.6 said:

Upward vertical motion. Negative because it defies gravity.  What goes up must come down.  Predicted precipitation without omega makes no sense.  Which brings me to this NAM summary for the event.  GFS is not that different. 

show.JPG.0f3c5b06770ab51e89ca79279a93e481.JPG

Nice chart, have looked at other spots in the region and haven't seen anything different, a to 3-6 hour "show"

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2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

It is warmer at 700mb though . Almost 80knot southwesterly flow around that level... that warm air can push in really fast aloft..

 

125DFE37-AF5E-477F-8953-18B659856949.png

As I was saying earlier, reason why NAM is so wet, is because it's most likely over doing the LLJ which increases frontogenesis and lift in atmosphere for heavier precip. Compare that map to euro. Thats the reason is 2 times it's qpf and well warmer too a loft. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-z700_speed-3649600.png

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

As I was saying earlier, reason why NAM is so wet, is because it's most likely over doing the LLJ which increases frontogenesis and lift in atmosphere for heavier precip. Compare that map to euro. Thats the reason is 2 times it's qpf and well warmer too a loft. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-z700_speed-3649600.png

tenor.gif.7631d2bcd18e97aa27fab15fdde05f06.gif

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really nothing to earth shattering of a change on the euro. Energy out west maybe not as bundled, bit more progressive. Se ridge tad weaker, but we are splitting hairs here so far 

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bit more ridging off se coast as we enter into thursday. So would expect maybe a bit warmer scenario here than what 12z euro showed which seemed to be on colder side of guidance 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

bit more ridging off se coast as we enter into thursday. So would expect maybe a bit warmer scenario here than what 12z euro showed which seemed to be on colder side of guidance 

Do you have access to soundings for the ECMWF? I'm just curious if the 12z run had a warm layer between 850-700mb.

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3 minutes ago, hm2 said:

Do you have access to soundings for the ECMWF? I'm just curious if the 12z run had a warm layer between 850-700mb.

Yes, I have a cross section sounding, which area do you want, assuming phl?

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yes, I have a cross section sounding, which area do you want, assuming phl?

No need to go crazy. I was just wondering if that cold 12z run was in fact mostly snow with no sneaky warm layer aloft in our area.

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1 minute ago, hm2 said:

No need to go crazy. I was just wondering if that cold 12z run was in fact mostly snow with no sneaky warm layer aloft in our area.

here's philly 

ecmwf-deterministic-KPHL-cross_section_zoom-3476800.png

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

euro is a bit warmer than 12z, but mainly snow nw of rt 1 corridor. Weaker and further offshore for coastal low

Actually has an overrunning look to it by late Thursday night/Friday  morning. 

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