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February 18th Wintry Precipitation Event, Paging Chumbawamba, Paging Chumbawamba


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I just do not like being on the southern edge of this thing right now, playing with fire to much with how the h5 looks. All it takes is models under doing the strength of the low coming out of the rockies or convection out of gulf and this goes north. 

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first call. Inside black line zone amounts up to 10"  

Looks like our typical storm run backwards

Here's my complete wild guess map for the storm.  

Posted Images

10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I just do not like being on the southern edge of this thing right now, playing with fire to much with how the h5 looks. All it takes is models under doing the strength of the low coming out of the rockies or convection out of gulf and this goes north. 

All fair concerns but it’s been ticking south all day. I would love for this to go south of us for a few days but I doubt it. We shall see what happens but as of now the models all agree with some front end here. 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I just do not like being on the southern edge of this thing right now, playing with fire to much with how the h5 looks. All it takes is models under doing the strength of the low coming out of the rockies or convection out of gulf and this goes north. 

I'm not cashing the check yet. 700 mb fronto animation off the 18z gfs shows the fronto band forming almost overhead and then moving north and covering the entire northeast. Any timing or location slippage and we are in trouble. The TPV looks like the one feature that could help keep things in check.

gfsfronto2_14_18.gif

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All fair concerns but it’s been ticking south all day. I would love for this to go south of us for a few days but I doubt it. We shall see what happens but as of now the models all agree with some front end here. 

It is one of those H5 maps that you just know will trend NW. This could easily be a 1 hour sleet/snow to rain event. Rug pull, but Idk though I feel good right now because every model has front end. It would be a lot different if we were sitting on the euro hoping the other models looked like it. There is overall support for like 3+“ for the city which is good. Maybe the worst is the CMC right now and I don’t mind it with its wet bias and probably warm bias. 

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I’m legitimately thinking about skipping out right from work to Buffalo tegion tomorrow. I am that nuts. Maybe setup shop right in that pocket between Erie and Ontario. I think the lake is almost frozen, but models are showing some decent enhancement. Storm flies but could be pretty heavy stuff

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7 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

It is one of those H5 maps that you just know will trend NW. This could easily be a 1 hour sleet/snow to rain event. Rug pull, but Idk though I feel good right now because every model has front end. It would be a lot different if we were sitting on the euro hoping the other models looked like it. There is overall support for like 3+“ for the city which is good. Maybe the worst is the CMC right now and I don’t mind it with its wet bias and probably warm bias. 

Oh I agree....if the euro was alone in showing this I would say forget about it. 

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27 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I’m legitimately thinking about skipping out right from work to Buffalo tegion tomorrow. I am that nuts. Maybe setup shop right in that pocket between Erie and Ontario. I think the lake is almost frozen, but models are showing some decent enhancement. Storm flies but could be pretty heavy stuff

No. Take a break.

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Dry column to start, waa will probably advance faster than modeled on that raging SSW flow, squeeze out a burst of snow then a prolonged mix.  Its the 84 nam but point is it's believable.  Tuesday departing storm channels the cold dense air on NW flow, then squeeze play of SE ridge and ULL in midwest drawing copious moisture N from the deep Gulf directly to mid-Atlantic.   Color me intrigued...much better setup than Tuesday.

image.png.3c075722442e4c5dd207927fcb8089c6.png

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Same jet structure as Tuesday but HP and antecedent airmass improved.  Bit more positive tilt.  It could totally crumble though.  Need HP to linger as long as possible and precip to arrive quickly.

Tues/Thu comparison.  850s and jet

 

ezgif-7-1f34202b1711.gif

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This is what we want to succeed.  Well positioned confluence.  An underrated player is the upper midwest energy squashing the trough.  More pos tilt = progressive/colder.  That in tandem with tpv confluence is a win

trend-rdps-2021021500-f078.500hv.conus.gif

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TPV was exiting stage left until the old blocking ridge rolled over the top, coupled with energy from Tuesday's storm running ahead of it, to pinch the PV off and allow it to spin in limbo with weak steering...in a great spot for us I might add.  Very cool.

gfs_z500_vort_atl_fh30-72.gif

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