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To be fair Tuesday's weather has not occurred yet. 

what I'm thinking right now

Story of this winter that the models have not been able to do a good job with capturing trofs in southeastern Canada.  Notice how much stabler all of the other features are vs that trof.

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1 minute ago, frankdp23 said:

If you cut that back by 50% it's still pretty bad.  

I agree, but when someone looks at that map they think .75 ice coming. In reality ground truth would probably be .25 to .4 which is a good amount of ice, but nothing like that map 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

I agree, but when someone looks at that map they think .75 ice coming. In reality ground truth would probably be .25 to .4 which is a good amount of ice, but nothing like that map 

A difference between crippling power outages and power outages. In the echelon of pornographic maps wind gusts > ice > snowfall. It also includes today btw.

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You need to specify this is what falls as zr not what accumulates. These maps are very misinformed 

The snowpack will hold it - some nice glaciers up north

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2 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The snowpack will hold it - some nice glaciers up north

Yea this is def going to be an ice storm nw of town. Just perfect conditions for it with all that snow cover to keep temps cold at surface

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

A difference between crippling power outages and power outages. In the echelon of pornographic maps wind gusts > ice > snowfall. It also includes today btw.

Yea it does include today, but that is less than a tenth nw of philly. People need to consider heavy rain rates with temps near 30 won't accrual sufficiently. A lot will run off. But you don't need much ice at all to cause issues, not saying that. These maps though are bad at communicating what will really happen 

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3 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

deleted my error, moving on

I didn't mean for it to come off in a bad way, just need to get the point across this is what falls from the sky as zr, not what accumulates. Kind of like snow in march during the day in the city with a temp of 31. May be 8" that falls but in reality much less will accumulate 

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea it does include today, but that is less than a tenth nw of philly. People need to consider heavy rain rates with temps near 30 won't accrual sufficiently. A lot will run off. But you don't need much ice at all to cause issues, not saying that. These maps though are bad at communicating what will really happen 

First all in no way am I minimizing the current ice threat on Tuesday. It is definitely not an all clear.  I am just commenting on the chances of that 99th percentile solution map verifying.

Agree. It is the equivalent of "snowfall" maps treating sleet as a 10:1 ratio.  There are many moving parts and it represents a by far worst case scenario. You'd have to first get the qpf right and not be too wet.  Then you'd have to get the ptype right.  Then you'd have to get this to fall lightly.  Then you'd have to have no wind at all. Then you'd have to have this all fall at night.  Then you'd have to have this all fall at temperatures well below freezing.  Then you can do the victory lap (assuming you don't slip and fall).

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6 minutes ago, Sublimation said:

This was about as bad as it could ever get, with amounts measured in inches; a legend in Montreal ... a record El Nino winter ... https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

That was devastating to the forests of the White Mtns in NH, yet at the summit of Mount Washington (where is this no trees) is was strictly a rain event with no icing as the elevation was sufficient to put them in the warm tongue.   If I recall 4000 ft was the cutoff for the icing, just below treeline.

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17 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

First all in no way am I minimizing the current ice threat on Tuesday. It is definitely not an all clear.  I am just commenting on the chances of that 99th percentile solution map verifying.

Agree. It is the equivalent of "snowfall" maps treating sleet as a 10:1 ratio.  There are many moving parts and it represents a by far worst case scenario. You'd have to first get the qpf right and not be too wet.  Then you'd have to get the ptype right.  Then you'd have to get this to fall lightly.  Then you'd have to have no wind at all. Then you'd have to have this all fall at night.  Then you'd have to have this all fall at temperatures well below freezing.  Then you can do the victory lap (assuming you don't slip and fall).

I think you will find us a way to get us all sleet. You have in the past. 

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2 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

That was devastating to the forests of the White Mtns in NH, yet at the summit of Mount Washington (where is this no trees) is was strictly a rain event with no icing as the elevation was sufficient to put them in the warm tongue.   If I recall 4000 ft was the cutoff for the icing, just below treeline.

Wow... might be the only time in recorded history that the Mount Washington summit was a weather refuge ... 

 

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7 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

I think you will find us a way to get us all sleet. You have in the past. 

That is true, it won't all be freezing rain.  The Euro (or WxBell algorithms of Euro data) like to default to freezing rain as a ptype in these scenarios.

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20 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

That is true, it won't all be freezing rain.  The Euro (or WxBell algorithms of Euro data) like to default to freezing rain as a ptype in these scenarios.

See, you are already giving us in the city hope for avoiding another 2014. I know, different setup, but just hearing half an inch of ice is causing anxiety for those of us who had to experience the freezing rain, the damage, and the cold after. 

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9 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

See, you are already giving us in the city hope for avoiding another 2014. I know, different setup, but just hearing half an inch of ice is causing anxiety for those of us who had to experience the freezing rain, the damage, and the cold after. 

I was here for all of the '93-'94 ice storms.  Trust me I know anxiety with ice all too well. You just mentioned 2014, there is not going to be 3-6" of snow on tree limbs for for the freezing rain to freeze onto.  Then again who knows about the evolution.  If we are in some pendulum swing and that trof in SE Canada starts exiting faster, more cold air would seep southward and increase the sleet and snow chances. It also would reduce the overall pcpn associated with it, more of a flatter solution.  Conversely if it moves slower, we'll get more of a longitudinal solution and even north and west might change to rain for a while or at least come very close to 32F.

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Not to stray from topic- but 93/94 was surreal. People were literally ice skating down the streets and I mean on ice skates!  Some folks left cars and walked home from worlk Laying in bed awake in the early morning listening to cracks and thumps as large branches snapped all over town (Haddon Heights), power out- blue flashes of transformers popping. No commutes for days. It wasn't '98 in the North Country- but it was just as crippling. I remember rain and mid-teens at some point. Long duration.  Hope to never see that again,  and won't with this event- but you can keep freezing rain. 

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