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Winter Storm Threats V (5 days and beyond)


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I’m checked in at the airport guys

Well guys it looks like it’s over. This year was an epic blast. Highs, lows, and in between. I’ll pop my head in and out if a cane comes close, and keep ya guys posted on my move to Worcester (pm me i

Hey guys I’m 100% going now “. Found an amwx poster who is also there to room with cut down on cost. Headed to Estes I’ll post pics/vids. I’m still trying to figure out if I’ll be able to get a Lyft f

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29 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

93-94 left many roads like a dirt road of ice, it was nuts. The deep freeze didnt help.

Doubt we'll ever see a 93-94 again.    Rain with temperatures in the low teens.    Multiple events with 1/2-3/4" ice accruals, interspersed with single number above and below zero temps.

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I don’t think one eps member has decent snow in the city. I may be wrong though just took a quick glance. Icon/cmc camp are definitely viable, we have seen the euro completely bust like last nights even at this range when it was showing like 8-12” type snows for PA. So idk how to feel. Would be a pretty hefty eps bust if this shifts to a icon/cmc like event. 

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5 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I don’t think one eps member has decent snow in the city. I may be wrong though just took a quick glance. Icon/cmc camp are definitely viable, we have seen the euro completely bust like last nights even at this range when it was showing like 8-12” type snows for PA. So idk how to feel. Would be a pretty hefty eps bust if this shifts to a icon/cmc like event. 

EPS trends vs 12z ytday aren't bad, but aren't enough for us. Need more, wouldn't rule it out. We've seen convergence win D3/4 this year several times.

epstrend2_11_12.gif

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

EPS trends vs 12z ytday aren't bad, but aren't enough for us. Need more, wouldn't rule it out. We've seen convergence win D3/4 this year several times.

epstrend2_11_12.gif

Heck, I don’t need all snow just give me a nice thump over to sleet and I’ll be fine 

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24 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Doubt we'll ever see a 93-94 again.    Rain with temperatures in the low teens.    Multiple events with 1/2-3/4" ice accruals, interspersed with single number above and below zero temps.

Thats what I called that winter, the mini ice age.  Man, it was brutally cold.  I remember the daytime for one of the days was near zero.  Heck we had rolling blackouts.  Think the grid could not handle the demand that time.  I think it was the first big ice storm where the warm front never moved north of Philly and oh did we get icing.  At night, it looked like Baghdad where one transformer went after another. By morning, had no power, but it was snowing lightly.  House got really cold.  But that one was the nasty with ice storms and brutally cold temps.. 

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1 minute ago, ezweather said:

Thats what I called that winter, the mini ice age.  Man, it was brutally cold.  I remember the daytime for one of the days was near zero.  Heck we had rolling blackouts.  Think the grid could not handle the demand that time.  I think it was the first big ice storm where the warm front never moved north of Philly and oh did we get icing.  At night, it looked like Baghdad where one transformer went after another. By morning, had no power, but it was snowing lightly.  House got really cold.  But that one was the nasty with ice storms and brutally cold temps.. 

Yup.

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28 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Doubt we'll ever see a 93-94 again.    Rain with temperatures in the low teens.    Multiple events with 1/2-3/4" ice accruals, interspersed with single number above and below zero temps.

i was just having a flashback, no we most likely wont have that repeat.

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Since we are talking about the Euro it brings up the wonkiness of the model with cold air this season.  It has wrongly taken suppression mode to a new level.  This has been a bias of it in years go by at being too icy.  Now obviously this is not a clear cut scenario by any stretch.  It is predicated on the high pressure system to the north being timed well.  Because the (predicted) ridge axis is offshore and the troffing is in the central conus, I don't want to say cut, but this looks like an inland track, enough to cause ptype heartburn. Of course we have the ICON & GGEM that have troffing where the Euro/GFS/UKMET have a ridge axis.  At 120hrs that is a pretty large difference. I am going to ass u me the latter are correct.  An icier case scenario still comes down to that high pressure system I thinks slowing down a bit more vs what the latter currently have.  There is no block east of it, no matter what the index value of the nao says it is.  At anyrate even if these systems have not been able to get to Canada, they have been able to get far enough north to make forecasting these events a ptype hell with nearly every event.  I hope the freezing rain part gets mitigated, but I am looking for a northward trend closer to go time if not necessarily at the surface still aloft.  This Saturday event as always may give us some clues, maybe even I will get a clue. 

 

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30 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

Yup.

Was that a Nina too? I had forgotten how cold it was, but as you weenies have jogged my mind, I'm remembering ice stuck on branches in my backyard for a long time. My company was not real friendly to calling out for storms, so I did a lot of white knuckle driving from Tabernacle, NJ to Dayton, NJ, and I seem to recall that for a couple of storms that trip made all the difference between ice and wet. Sadly, it was often not clear where it was wet on blacktop or wet on ice. Saw many a bad accident on those journeys.

We may not repeat it, but I can't remember seeing this much ZR modeled in quite some time.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

Since we are talking about the Euro it brings up the wonkiness of the model with cold air this season.  It has wrongly taken suppression mode to a new level.  This has been a bias of it in years go by at being too icy.  Now obviously this is not a clear cut scenario by any stretch.  It is predicated on the high pressure system to the north being timed well.  Because the (predicted) ridge axis is offshore and the troffing is in the central conus, I don't want to say cut, but this looks like an inland track. Of course we have the ICON & GGEM that have troffing where the Euro/GFS/UKMET have a ridge axis.  At 120hrs that is a pretty large difference.  I am going to ass u me the latter are correct.  An icier case scenario still comes down to that high pressure system I thinks slowing down a bit more vs what the latter currently have.  There is no block east of it, no matter what the index value of the nao says it is.  At anyrate even if these systems have not been able to get to Canada, they have been able to get far enough north to make forecasting these events a ptype hell with nearly every event.  I hope the freezing rain part gets mitigated, but I am looking for a northward trend closer to go time if not necessarily at the surface still aloft.  This Saturday event as always may give us some clues, maybe even I will get a clue. 

 

I generally agree. It’s not a snowstorm look for us and screams west. I can see how it could get to a snow event just not favoring it.  There is a big man high but no block, poor h5 look out west. This has gulf tap which should further enhance se ridge with convection 

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I generally agree. It’s not a snowstorm look for us and screams west. I can see how it could get to a snow event just not favoring it.  There is a big man high but no block, poor h5 look out west. This has gulf tap which should further enhance se ridge with convection 

Good points, and models tend to get rid of the cad sig too fast. I really hope this isn’t a significant zr event. We’ll see how it plays out this weekend...not seeing a lot of room at H5 that would get us to pure snow event, but crazier things have happened on modeling. 

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29 minutes ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

Was that a Nina too? I had forgotten how cold it was, but as you weenies have jogged my mind, I'm remembering ice stuck on branches in my backyard for a long time. My company was not real friendly to calling out for storms, so I did a lot of white knuckle driving from Tabernacle, NJ to Dayton, NJ, and I seem to recall that for a couple of storms that trip made all the difference between ice and wet. Sadly, it was often not clear where it was wet on blacktop or wet on ice. Saw many a bad accident on those journeys.

We may not repeat it, but I can't remember seeing this much ZR modeled in quite some time.

 

That was an enso neutral winter.

The teleconnection pattern was -epo/+nao.

The EPO is suppose to go positive this weekend and the nao is suppose to be positive by the time of the 2/16 predicted event. But there is no denying that the current -epo and the last embers of the SSW effect has left no shortage of arctic air in Canada.

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we might be looking for a new king. Icon has snow here Saturday night??? Then that next Tuesday, this shall be interesting 

King or Dr. Yes?

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we might be looking for a new king. Icon has snow here Saturday night??? Then that next Tuesday, this shall be interesting 

Really more Saturday afternoon locally. Probably only way if it comes in fast. Tuesday it is on GGEM island.

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46 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I generally agree. It’s not a snowstorm look for us and screams west. I can see how it could get to a snow event just not favoring it.  There is a big man high but no block, poor h5 look out west. This has gulf tap which should further enhance se ridge with convection 

That’s exactly what I was alluding to earlier.  There’s a nice high but it’s retreating because there’s no block.  Only way we snow is a strung out weaker wave. 

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