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GFS Well On Its Way To Another Barney Bias Bust For 2/8.


Bananashadow
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Not even talking about the medium range thread in which the GFS predicted the second coldest temperature on record for Valentine's Day yesterday.  This thread is for Monday February 8th.  Yes there will be snow on the ground and yes a radiational night would be pretty cold in the suburbs. But these forecasts are not in la la land.  They are within the start of modeling skill forecast time.  As for the core of the cold air mass:

This is forecast lowest thickness and lowest temperature around Monday February 8th.  Most recent run first (2/5/06z).  Last run was 1/30/12z.

523/17, 522/19, 522/17, 522/19, 522/19, 525/25, 523/21, 525/22, 525/22, 513/10 (3/00z), 518/18,

513/9, 509/7, 504/7, 498/3, 496/-2, 495/1, 498/5, 495/0, 501/5, 503/8, 504/6, 515/16, 512/16

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Updating thru 2/8/00z run this morning (most recent run first)

524/17, 524/18, 525/18, 525/19, 525/19, 525/19, 525/19, 525/18, 523/17, 523/16, 523/17

523/17, 522/19, 522/17, 522/19, 522/19, 525/25, 523/21, 525/22, 525/22, 513/10 (3/00z), 518/18,

513/9, 509/7, 504/7, 498/3, 496/-2, 495/1, 498/5, 495/0, 501/5, 503/8, 504/6, 515/16, 512/16

So the GFS gave up the Barney Ghost about 5 days out and stabilized near the correct bottom thickness.

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On 2/13/2021 at 11:50 PM, Chubbs said:

Last 3 00z gfs for sunday afternoon. Even the gfs couldn't keep up with this Barney

trend-gfs-2021021400-f018.sfct_anom.conus.gif

That has been a seriously known (reverse) bias for the GFS since its inception that it does handle shallow cold air with northers well at all.  This also goes partially why it busts, it spends too much time trying to push this air mass east vs south.

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