Rainshadow Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not even talking about the medium range thread in which the GFS predicted the second coldest temperature on record for Valentine's Day yesterday. This thread is for Monday February 8th. Yes there will be snow on the ground and yes a radiational night would be pretty cold in the suburbs. But these forecasts are not in la la land. They are within the start of modeling skill forecast time. As for the core of the cold air mass: This is forecast lowest thickness and lowest temperature around Monday February 8th. Most recent run first (2/5/06z). Last run was 1/30/12z. 523/17, 522/19, 522/17, 522/19, 522/19, 525/25, 523/21, 525/22, 525/22, 513/10 (3/00z), 518/18, 513/9, 509/7, 504/7, 498/3, 496/-2, 495/1, 498/5, 495/0, 501/5, 503/8, 504/6, 515/16, 512/16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 The reason why it will snow on Sunday is because the GFS is not plow driving the baroclinic zone to Nicaragua any longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Updating thru 2/8/00z run this morning (most recent run first) 524/17, 524/18, 525/18, 525/19, 525/19, 525/19, 525/19, 525/18, 523/17, 523/16, 523/17 523/17, 522/19, 522/17, 522/19, 522/19, 525/25, 523/21, 525/22, 525/22, 513/10 (3/00z), 518/18, 513/9, 509/7, 504/7, 498/3, 496/-2, 495/1, 498/5, 495/0, 501/5, 503/8, 504/6, 515/16, 512/16 So the GFS gave up the Barney Ghost about 5 days out and stabilized near the correct bottom thickness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted February 14, 2021 Report Share Posted February 14, 2021 Last 3 00z gfs for sunday afternoon. Even the gfs couldn't keep up with this Barney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/13/2021 at 11:50 PM, Chubbs said: Last 3 00z gfs for sunday afternoon. Even the gfs couldn't keep up with this Barney That has been a seriously known (reverse) bias for the GFS since its inception that it does handle shallow cold air with northers well at all. This also goes partially why it busts, it spends too much time trying to push this air mass east vs south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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