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Super Sunday 2/7 return of the Dead storm...


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Can't wait

my first call 

As I posted earlier. Tony and I have been keeping track of qpf and snow outputs for all the storms this winter. Eps has basically owned most events. I would def lean towards the eps qpf but they will

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Why do these things always come in with early models showing bullseye at or near Philly, then nearly always drift northwards to put us in the mixline or even further south?  Haven't the models learned anything or is this purely anecdotal or stochastic?

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4 minutes ago, HaroldG said:

Why do these things always come in with early models showing bullseye at or near Philly, then nearly always drift northwards to put us in the mixline or even further south?  Haven't the models learned anything or is this purely anecdotal or stochastic?

FWIW, I think this was bullseyeing Dover DE to Egg Harbor NJ a few hours ago.

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8 minutes ago, HaroldG said:

Why do these things always come in with early models showing bullseye at or near Philly, then nearly always drift northwards to put us in the mixline or even further south?  Haven't the models learned anything or is this purely anecdotal or stochastic?

I heard years ago, and I  wanna say it was JB, that the models overdo blocking and as the event approaches, adjust accordingly. Could be bogus, can't say. Probably true in some cases, but not others i.e. no hard and fast reason or rule?

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4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I heard years ago, and I  wanna say it was JB, that the models overdo blocking and as the event approaches, adjust accordingly. Could be bogus, can't say. Probably true in some cases, but not others i.e. no hard and fast readon or rule?

I think it’s more models undersell ridging out west and get screwed up with strength of s/w’s coming out of the Rockies. Seen it numerous times and I posted it last night that models have done it countless times where they wreck a s/w coming out of Rockies and see it weak. In reality it holds together much better and is starting at a higher threshold than something that was torn to bits by the Rockies. 

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There should be strong
forcing for ascent over the area due to right jet entrance dynamics
and also the mid level low looks to track right near the area as it
start to close off. The upshot is we expect snow, heavy at times,
through the morning with still some question on exactly where the
heaviest bands set up. Heaviest bands of snow will likely be near or
just north of the mid level low in the strongest F-Gen forcing.
Rates in the heaviest bands are likely to be 1-2 inches per
hour creating significantly reduced visibility. Most of the
forecast area should be all snow Sunday with the exception being
southern Delmarva and parts of coastal NJ where a mix with or
change to rain and sleet will be possible. But this will depend
on the exact track of the storm. A track closer to the coast
will result in more mixing near the coast with the heaviest snow
near or even north of I-95 while a track farther east will
result in mostly all snow even at the coast potentially bringing
the highest snow amounts here. Generally favoring a track close
enough to the coast to bring at least some mixing here with our
highest snow amounts of 6+ inches currently forecast in a swath
near the I-95 corridor. But again, confidence still fairly low
on these exact details despite growing confidence of the storm
impacting the region. Also, within the area we are currently
forecasting 6-8 inches there will likely be an area that gets
8-12+ inches in the heaviest bands.

mt holly afd

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I think it’s more models undersell ridging out west and get screwed up with strength of s/w’s coming out of the Rockies. Seen it numerous times and I posted it last night that models have done it countless times where they wreck a s/w coming out of Rockies and see it weak. In reality it holds together much better and is starting at a higher threshold than something that was torn to bits by the Rockies. 

Makes sense.

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Seems like it's a trend in La-Nina winters to start south and go north. Maybe ridging in the southeast is underdone on the models. All I know is that Heisenberg the bandwagoning weenie he is, will probably go to Quakertown thinking that's where the bullseye will be. Qtown Snow, he made need your couch haha.

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5 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

Speaking of that, the 18z GFS has the bullseye in Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties, while the city and Delaware County gets 2 inches of slop.

It does? 

F74AE058-B53E-479B-A219-588D9772C652.png

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2 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

Speaking of northern burbs, remember 20 years ago today. 2/5/2001. The surprise storm that was supposed to be mostly rain but it turned to snow due to dynamic cooling and knocked my power out because of the weight of the snow. A few of you were around back then.

One of my fav events. I think surface temps are going to me more reliant with banding. The 3km NAM is obv screwing up with convection which is why it has crazy totals,  but this type of storm is going to have a sloppy snow map. We probably won’t know until it’s happening 

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

One of my fav events. I think surface temps are going to me more reliant with banding. The 3km NAM is obv screwing up with convection which is why it has crazy totals,  but this type of storm is going to have a sloppy snow map. We probably won’t know until it’s happening 

Yeah, for the next five years, if there was a shallow warm area that made the model give us rain, they would say but remember February 2001! One month from now we have a very somber anniversary. You know which event. It will be the 20th anniversary of 3/5/01. it was supposed to be a combination of the snow of 96 with the strength of 93 although it depended on phasing at the exact right time which is usually an issue. A week before models had it going off The Florida Coast. Three days before, it was going to be the greatest snowstorm of all time.

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43 minutes ago, ALurkerYouKnow said:

Tombo, I'm old school with my model sites using the same ones I did years ago in the EasternWX days but I think this is one of the reasons why 10:1 is so crappy for the city and delco. Look at surface temps.

f42.gif

I think it's just tidbits model algorithm, does it for all models on there.

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

I heard years ago, and I  wanna say it was JB, that the models overdo blocking and as the event approaches, adjust accordingly. Could be bogus, can't say. Probably true in some cases, but not others i.e. no hard and fast reason or rule?

I'll add to Tom's and yours and I think they are all valid points.  Models also do not handle convection well.  Low coming off the Carolina coast is going to pop some storms. That release of latent heat will increase ridging east of it tending to sharpen the trof and push it farther northwest. 

I am looking at the entrance region of the 250mb jet.  It is still a prediction but yeah its not favorable for heavier pcpn to get into PA, it is "as is" too close to the coast.  I still expect some nudging to the northwest (apologies Sussex DE & Cape May members) thru go time for all the reasons expressed above.

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to Super Sunday 2/7 return of the Dead storm...

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