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Super Sunday 2/7 return of the Dead storm...


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  • irishbri74 changed the title to Super Sunday -Monday 2/7-2/8 return of the Dead storm...
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Can't wait

my first call 

As I posted earlier. Tony and I have been keeping track of qpf and snow outputs for all the storms this winter. Eps has basically owned most events. I would def lean towards the eps qpf but they will

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

The 9z srefs just came WAY west. Expect a big NAM trend

4256434F-CA95-4558-AB1F-94921D994811.png

The bowl of cold rain it's depicting isn't so super. Then again, I guess no one ever relies upon the srefs for thermals.

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5 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The bowl of cold rain it's depicting isn't so super. Then again, I guess no one ever relies upon the srefs for thermals.

There are going to be thermal issues.  You can't back up the low and not take some of the offshore thermal profiles with you.  You are not going to take your 528 thickness and low 600 miles offshore and move the low closer to the coast and still maintain your 528 thickness.  

For a more widespread geographical snow you are going to have to split the uprights. 

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Not saying it can't.  But with the 06z GFS run it was not a case of the 250mb jet being way northwest of the surface low.  There was a consistency to the jet and the sfc low placement.  They both have to back up further with future runs.

gfs_uv250_us_12.png.05823bdc0c07c06c6be1fe49ac68fe52.png

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5 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

This will be the end of nams range still, but just posting for the continued trend. This is gonna be good I believe

00AE6979-FEA2-40F0-8FC1-F2BF811F370F.png

Never change Heisey....141D3DE3-DA9F-44EC-BA0C-FDB95B183B08.png.0697cbe495ad122787581675c2b93486.png

 

or Charge..... 

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Looking at the surface maps of the Nam on TT, it looks nearly identical setup to the surface map of the Euro on Tuesday, the last time it showed a hit. No wonder we all need counseling.

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

If the NAM run happened verbatim it would be thump to a warm up. Surface temps get pretty warm after the low for some odd reason. Lots of dripping lol

low up by erie, southerly flow

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@RCostello

Seems like possibly a classic case to me of global models picking up on a signal for an event based on data that is in sparsely sampled areas.  Once better sampling of energy coming ashore of the Pacific is better sampled, we see a significant change in modeling around the 72 hour mark.  Not saying that is what is happening here, just saying it would explain why it is happening that models showed one thing at 5 days and something different now at 3.

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  • Rainshadow6.6 changed the title to Super Sunday 2/7 return of the Dead storm...

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