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Winter Storm Threats IV (5 days and beyond)


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Take a spin

Heisi's phone by 8am every day:  

You must be new here 

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Ukie gets us 8-10"+ over the run with a couple twists and turns. lol

What seemed simple over the weekend is getting a little less. But as long as it snows, who cares!

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3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Ukie gets us 8-10"+ over the run with a couple twists and turns. lol

What seemed simple over the weekend is getting a little less. But as long as it snows, who cares!

One thing I've learned after being skunked from the last two storms, nothing is simple in winter weather forecasting..lol...

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Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but with all of these waves and different pieces of energy, I don't see the point of trying to look too far into the future on the models if a lot is going to depend on how tomorrow's system evolves.

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23 minutes ago, NJBrandon said:

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but with all of these waves and different pieces of energy, I don't see the point of trying to look too far into the future on the models if a lot is going to depend on how tomorrow's system evolves.

You must be new here 

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40 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Ukie gets us 8-10"+ over the run with a couple twists and turns. lol

What seemed simple over the weekend is getting a little less. But as long as it snows, who cares!

I saw the question a page or two prior.  You can start a thread for Thu/Fri in the short term.  I can't, rumor has it I am a jinx.

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45 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NWS is gonna love the next 10 days. Lol cmc has like 18 different waves each with different ptype. Ukie same thing pretty much. 

I am going to give my manager a list of days when I am not expecting it to snow, it is the shorter list.

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I won't be making it so as not to be accused of kiss of death but next short term thread might be best as a Thurs thru Sun multi wave single thread given as referenced above each successive wave frozen qpf outcome will likely depend on previous.  Could then have individual OBS threads...

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45 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NWS is gonna love the next 10 days. Lol cmc has like 18 different waves each with different ptype. Ukie same thing pretty much. 

It's simple, my friend!

6-10" all snow well northwest of Philly and into NNJ, 3-6" mixy along 95, and 1-3" mixy southeast of 95.

For drier events, replace the above numbers with 2-4", 1-3" mixy, and rain ending with a dusting.

There, I just saved you from depleting your battery!

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2 minutes ago, anowal01 said:

I won't be making it so as not to be accused of kiss of death but next short term thread might be best as a Thurs thru Sun multi wave single thread given as referenced above each successive wave frozen qpf outcome will likely depend on previous.  Could then have individual OBS threads...

Go ahead and make it. We got faith in you! 

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6 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Go ahead and make it. We got faith in you! 

Mitchnick in by a minute...might wanna update the title if goin multi day.  Good luck.  4 outta 7 days plowin and saltin at the shore, feel like I'm playing with house money already.  #WinningWinter2021

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Now this looks interesting in the long range.  

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Looks like it will bust west a bit, but still significant storm is possible.  The upper air hints at it cutting west, so we'll see how this changes in the coming days.. 
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

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36 minutes ago, Rainshadow6.1 said:

Don’t want it to get toooo positive. With all the antecedent snow, there would be a boatload of ice if it backs too much.

Good point. We need some spreading out of the vortex to the east, like recent trend for the wed-fri event. Balled-up and sinking into Miss Valley would probably end up icy or wet.

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