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Winter Storm Threats IV (5 days and beyond)


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Boy does the Euro run say, hello to overrunning and forecaster raging headaches.  Yep, that dreaded word freezing rain.  Looks like an active time on this run.  Just a mess with that arctic air slowly moving in.  Think this map sums it up..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I’d enjoy a major ice storm, I love violent weathe. 3-5” of snow with .5 inch of ice on top, with whatever snowpack we have leading up. Deep winter

 

B8A97867-DF5F-4A04-BA99-58B93E897603.png

I'd enjoy another snow storm instead.🙂

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

While it warms up briefly after the ice storm the tpv still progresses east and cold looks to come eventually,  this is a decent setup heh. This will be different in 12 hours anyway 

 

76AD2941-8DDA-4876-8454-99D59034CDB1.png

Yep, just a brief time-out for the east so it can slip in another Chicago/Midwest snowstorm before heading back east.

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

While it warms up briefly after the ice storm the tpv still progresses east and cold looks to come eventually,  this is a decent setup heh. This will be different in 12 hours anyway 

 

76AD2941-8DDA-4876-8454-99D59034CDB1.png

Yes its temporary. Be nice to bleed the cold air for a good storm track, but we know it won't be that easy.

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Like I said before, we want to see an elongated PV, not a buzz saw. The buzz saw look will raise heights on the east coast and spit out an icy/warmer solution. Can imagine we’ll see some changes on op models going into this week coming up. 

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Notice how on the gefs, it’s a bit more elongated, and bulk of it gets squeezed under the block? Hence, lower heights along the east coast .. that’s what we wanna see. 

402A6AAF-B860-448B-ADDF-D6EE5B9729A8.png

73D521E6-D9DF-4D73-842D-8B1B77E71F2D.png

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37 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Notice how on the gefs, it’s a bit more elongated, and bulk of it gets squeezed under the block? Hence, lower heights along the east coast .. that’s what we wanna see. 

402A6AAF-B860-448B-ADDF-D6EE5B9729A8.png

73D521E6-D9DF-4D73-842D-8B1B77E71F2D.png

Completely agree. The 12z eps has more of that look...

C6C49F08-C868-4E72-8D57-192F5A90EDAE.png

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Uh, pretty stout mean this far out boys

 

8E0348AB-602D-454D-A08B-02B1854E5543.png

 

 

 

Cold airmass looks like it will be in place. Need robust Low to appear during this time period. 

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