tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Anything 5 days or more that poses a threat, post in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 @Chubbs, this is in response to your latest post. Yeah another difference one finally has the -NAO trending in the right direction (look at 12/16). A stagnant or increasingly more negative (hello Thursday) -NAO does not necessarily do one any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 The para Gfs, you know the model that's .001 better than the Gfs, looks pretty snowy over the last 3 runs. And surprisingly, closest to the Euro for the day 7 event. Let's hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said: @Chubbs, this is in response to your latest post. Yeah another difference one finally has the -NAO trending in the right direction (look at 12/16). A stagnant or increasingly more negative (hello Thursday) -NAO does not necessarily do one any favors. Good news for D8, though at one point thursday looked like the pattern changer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gotta get that H7 low farther SE on the euro. Looks like 6z eps has a bit more confluence. Give me 3-5 in Philly and maybe a chance to chase to burbs/Poconos and I’m happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Heisenberg said: Gotta get that H7 low farther SE on the euro. Looks like 6z eps has a bit more confluence. Give me 3-5 in Philly and maybe a chance to chase to burbs/Poconos and I’m happy TPV slower to move out forcing storm a bit further south. We want that, don't want it moving out fast or it's going to cut away with little to night to show for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Going forward, like to see tpv continue same speed or maybe slow a bit. Would also like to see the big HP maintain or get stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: TPV slower to move out forcing storm a bit further south. We want that, don't want it moving out fast or it's going to cut away with little to night to show for it Yea I meant the ULL with the main event but I agree I thought the 50/50 confluence looked better on 6z which is most important and how we get this thing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 @Heisenberg Sne ku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @Heisenberg Sne ku That's the more typical Miller B look, which is why I generally close my eyes when they show up or are spoken of. What the Euro showed yesterday at 12z was pretty anomalous for a Miller B, which is why it worked so far south. 0z run started the march north, which I hate to say, ain't the end of it if climo prevails. Tom's right, as usual, in that we want that High as strong as possible and need the right timing and positioning of TPV. We track, we hope, and we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS off to a good start today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Mitchnick said: GFS off to a good start today. Until it holds on to the midwest slp too long. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 This looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para GFS looks a little better than GFS. Both hold on to the Midwest low too long it seems. Or should I say, I really thought a transfer would occur before it reached our latitude. EDIT: Para ends up transferring south of our latitude, but not until thermals are wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: Para GFS looks a little better than GFS. Both hold on to the Midwest low too long it seems. Or should I say, I really thought a transfer would occur before it reached our latitude. CMC is much farther SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 ^ but it also is kind of dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Kind of a 2 parter on the cmc, waa, and then coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Para + gem are both steps in the right direction. GEM is just a little too suppressed which isn't all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbs Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 ukie south also similar to GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Mitchnick said: That's the more typical Miller B look, which is why I generally close my eyes when they show up or are spoken of. What the Euro showed yesterday at 12z was pretty anomalous for a Miller B, which is why it worked so far south. 0z run started the march north, which I hate to say, ain't the end of it if climo prevails. Tom's right, as usual, in that we want that High as strong as possible and need the right timing and positioning of TPV. We track, we hope, and we pray. I'm not expecting a KU or anything but a 2-4 or 3-6 event is very possible. If we can get a big high and tpv slows down then we can think higher possibly but also could get sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, Chubbs said: ukie south also similar to GEM That’s a 1038mb hP in oretty much classic location. You can see the confluence draped across New England. Hopefully we see euro do this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Heisenberg said: That’s a 1038mb hP in oretty much classic location. You can see the confluence draped across New England. Hopefully we see euro do this too 6 hour precip from Ukie at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Yea comparing to gfs at same time it’s slower probably cause it’s taking a farther south trek. Bet by the end of this we’re rooting for it to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Common I got some good vibes let’s get a euro hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRINCETON ANGLER Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 Anything can happen in weather it seems, but with a primary over eastern Lake Michigan it better thump hard and fast. I can't see a coastal transfer being much of a help in the Delaware Valley. Kind of reeks of what we are going to get tonight/tomorrow. I have a hard time seeing this improve much from where we are now, and plenty of room for it to go the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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