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Winter Storm Threats IV (5 days and beyond)


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20 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

@Chubbs,  this is in response to your latest post.

Yeah another difference one finally has the -NAO trending in the right direction (look at 12/16).  A stagnant or increasingly more negative (hello Thursday) -NAO does not necessarily do one any favors.

 nao.sprd2.gif.73be6791dbcd7b80d54131bb57f49345.gif

Good news for D8, though at one point thursday looked like the pattern changer

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Gotta get that H7 low farther SE on the euro. Looks like 6z eps has a bit more confluence. Give me 3-5 in Philly and maybe a chance to chase to burbs/Poconos  and I’m happy

TPV slower to move out forcing storm a bit further south. We want that, don't want it moving out fast or it's going to cut away with little to night to show for it 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

TPV slower to move out forcing storm a bit further south. We want that, don't want it moving out fast or it's going to cut away with little to night to show for it 

Yea I meant the ULL with the main event but I agree I thought the 50/50 confluence looked better on 6z which is most important and how we get this thing south

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Heisenberg Sne ku 

5633BAC9-CBC2-492C-9C4D-C5EA893FC12C.png

That's the more typical Miller B look, which is why I generally close my eyes when they show up or are spoken of. What the Euro showed yesterday at 12z was pretty anomalous for a Miller B, which is why it worked so far south. 0z run started the march north, which I hate to say, ain't the end of it if climo prevails. Tom's right, as usual, in that we want that High as strong as possible and need the right timing and positioning of TPV. We track, we hope, and we pray.

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Para GFS looks a little better than GFS. Both hold on to the Midwest low too long it seems. Or should I say, I really thought a transfer would occur before it reached our latitude.

 

EDIT: Para ends up transferring south of our latitude, but not until thermals are wrecked.

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1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

That's the more typical Miller B look, which is why I generally close my eyes when they show up or are spoken of. What the Euro showed yesterday at 12z was pretty anomalous for a Miller B, which is why it worked so far south. 0z run started the march north, which I hate to say, ain't the end of it if climo prevails. Tom's right, as usual, in that we want that High as strong as possible and need the right timing and positioning of TPV. We track, we hope, and we pray.

I'm not expecting a KU or anything but a 2-4 or 3-6 event is very possible. If we can get a big high and tpv slows down then we can think higher possibly but also could get sheared. 

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prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

Anything can happen in weather it seems, but with a primary over eastern Lake Michigan it better thump hard and fast. I can't see a coastal transfer being much of a help in the Delaware Valley. Kind of reeks of what we are going to get tonight/tomorrow. I have a hard time seeing this improve much from where we are now, and plenty of room for it to go the other direction.

 

 

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