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The Euro Ensemble by the end of the month remains consistent in NYC to what was commented on in the post on the 16th. The title.

NYC (I-95 corridor) Snow Statement

In fact it appears to have. 7 inches in the park by 00z Feb 1

This would mean we are well ahead of normal, pro-rated thru the date, with Feb the normally snowiest month and a pattern where I do think its going to snow in Feb and in March for that matter again Now I want you to take a seat here because I got good news and bad news

And I want you to remember what I told you about 1978. and I want you to remember 1996

There is a chance here that this whole Nebraska to NJ plan I have been concocting works out pretty darn nice, where a lot of people receive several inches of snow from 2, perhaps 3 storms in a row. I don't see a knock out the storm, but 4 to 8 locally 10-inch type storms at that core and enough freezing rain and sleet to the south and lighter amounts to the north, when one totals it up, its a heck of a 7-10 days in the face of a winter that since December has left people from the plains into the northeast with little to remember and even some to despair enough to forget about its come back

And I understand that. Believe me, but the point is that unlike some other winters, and this is what I have been trying to push, this has enough going for it to make me think its always been when not if and the core is mid-Jan to Mid Feb. But keep in mind that the stratwarm response is 60 days, and La Nina winters like to be colder relative to averages further east later, and that may indeed play a big role going forward. But before that part there may be a wipe out, There was in 1978. There was in 1996

But you may get to a nice big snow cover and then get it wiped out by what may be a monster of a storm that does cut, and divides the pattern up between what you are about to see and then what you will see which is a lot of cold in the west and heartland and the attempt to fight into the east, under the block. But that would be a fun pattern too. The problem is I am not optimistic about linking the 2 without the threat of a lot of the hard-earned snow in eastern sections getting wiped out. But let us get the snow down first. At the very least I think the Euro is the model of choice ( the blend of its operational control and ensembles) and will put a lot of people ahead in a game where one may have thought one had no chance to win.

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