tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 anything over 5 days in here for potential winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 It looks like the 12z icon may have trended towards the para route with holding energy back. Hard to tell exactly, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisenberg Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Actually. It looks like it shredded it. It’s the icon though watever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 looks like gfs has less tpv interaction so far with energy out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 still less phasing with tpv energy compared to 6z. Also 50/50 low a bit stronger/slower to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 This should be a good bit flatter run on the gfs here. More positive tilted trough axis here. TPV energy not really phasing in and running a bit out ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 move towards the eps with lower hgts across the lakes. Can really see it if you compare 0z gfs to 12z run how there is muchless phasing with tpv and lower hgts just north of lakes to keep ridging at bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 L-O-L at the changes in ridging and tpv handling from 6z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, tombo82685 said: L-O-L at the changes in ridging and tpv handling from 6z to 12z Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 can't see how the northern stream could phase looking at 162 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 energy rotating around the 50/50 back to the NE might help block the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I'll probably wish I hadn't posted that above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 goofus 6z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 WHAT A CAVE!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 You can see how less phasing early on doesn’t amplify the ridge to its east, doesn’t bully the 50/50 east. Let’s see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 we don't get surface southerly flow despite the HP lobe that follows initial confluence to the SE out to sea....the HP lobe to our N maintains enough influence at least for precip onset 850's ehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 bone dry dews to start. always helpful for overrunning events. i know this is an op, just looking at the key players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irishbri74 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, susqushawn said: we don't get surface southerly flow despite the HP lobe that follows initial confluence to the SE out to sea....the HP lobe to our N maintains enough influence at least for precip onset 850's ehh Still need to see some earlier redevelopment further south. But good changes aloft early on. Baby steps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, irishbri74 said: Still need to see some earlier redevelopment further south. But good changes aloft early on. Baby steps?? yeah for sure, it's not perfect, but cold is close by if surface track stays flat like that. any coastal redevelopment with primary decay will only help lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 man, this is close to something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 looks to be starting the transfer at 183 hrs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021011812&fh=183&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 basically one prolonged SWFE over an initially cold/dry CAD airmass, if this is the surface track, I could see us faring well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 does look to switch to all snow before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchnick Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mitchnick said: man, this is close to something big I second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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