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February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion


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The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to return soup at a deli... My favorite Seinfeld of all time....  

This is something to possibly watch for February. The main tropical forcing right now is IO shifting into the maritime continent (phases 4/5) over the next 15 days, all warm phases. Granted there is s

I liked the Jim O'Brien weather maps, simple layout

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00z/13th Ensemble Comparison 2/13-2/28.  Avg normal 850mb temp -4C. 

+EPO Switch Today/ Switch back at end of month?

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 12.5; PNA Day 9.5; AO Day 13

Recent Verification Tendency: NAO & AO more negative;  PNA more positive

GEFS:  (two days longer) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 16th, below normal anomalies night of Feb 16th, above normal anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies Feb 20th into Feb 21st, (shorter) above normal anomalies Feb 21st into Feb 22nd, below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th into Feb 28th (end of run).   

GEPS: (180 warmer change) Above normal anomalies into Feb 16th, (180 degree change) above normal anomalies Feb 17th thru Feb 19th, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 20th, (day later) above normal anomalies Feb 21st & 22nd, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th into Feb 28th (end of run). 

EPS: (2 days shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Feb 16th,(4 days shorter) below normal anomalies Feb 17th, above normal anomalies Feb 18th & 19th, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 20th & Feb 21st, (same) primarily above normal anomalies Feb 22nd thru Feb 27th (end of run).

 

NAEFS Week 2: Week of February 21th-February 28th. Just rolled over moderate confidence of above normal temperatures.  

 

Teleconnections:  

EPS:    +EPO into 2/25, neutral 2/26-2/27;  -PNA, 2/14-2/27; +NAO 2/14-2/23, neg 2/24-2/27   

GEPS:  +EPO into 2/26 (day longer) neutral 2/27-2/28;   -PNA 2/15-2/28;

            +NAO sandwich 2/14-2/22 (day longer), neg 2/23-2/28

GEFS:  +EPO thru 2/24 (day shorter), neg 2/25-2/28;  -PNA 2/15-2/28;

            +NAO 2/14-2/22 (big switch), neg 2/23-2/28

            (CPC site has more positive looking PNA) 

WPO positive; GEFS more neutral looking 

 

MJO:  (WH Sectors) vel potential phase 8  Strongest convection Phase 1. 

GEFS & EPS Phase 7, loops(?) around to Phase 6 (end 2/27). 

MVentrice Phase 1 border (vel potential), Phase 3 at end.    

MJO phases in Feb: 4 thru 7 warm,  8 thru 3 cold.

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 50th percentile dropping to the 30th. Wave 2 oscillating between 30th & 55th  percentile peak (350 gpm).  EC similar more of a fall off the cliff for Wave 1.

NAM/SPV:  GFS SPV recovery continues, above average strength on all ensembles return around Feb 17th.   SSW Strat hits done. A trop hit toward end of month? 

 

The MJO has been as influential as a freezer salesperson on Pluto this winter.  The SSW and its unraveling have trumped.  So with "colder" phases now the pattern looks warmer, will warmer phases mean colder at end of month?  Wave 1 & Wave 2 activity thru day 10 is not strong.  So a warmer period (this week aloft not cold either, but there is the unraveling of the last of the SSW at the surface) is coming within skill time next weekend into the following week.  Question becomes does the outlooked -EPO/-NAO switch toward the end of the month hold and indicate a colder start to Smarch?  Stay tuned.  

 

00z/10th Ensemble Comparison 2/10-2/25.  Avg normal 850mb temp -4C. 

 GEFS:  (no longer non stop cold) Near normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 11th, below normal anomalies night of Feb 11th, above normal anomalies Feb 12th into Feb 14th, below normal anomalies Feb 15th, above normal anomalies Feb 16th into Feb 19th, below normal anomalies Feb 19th thru Feb 21st, above to near normal anomalies Feb 22nd to Feb 25th (end of run).   

GEPS: Below normal 850mb anomalies into Feb 13th, (warmer) above normal anomalies night of Feb 13th, (shorter) below normal anomalies Feb 14th into Feb 16th, (same) near normal anomalies night of Feb 16th, (longer) below normal anomalies Feb 17th thru Feb 19th, (2 day can kick) above normal anomalies Feb 20th thru Feb 25th. (end of run)

EPS: (Overhaul like the GEFS) Primarily Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Feb 12th, above normal anomalies Feb 13th thru Feb 18th, below normal anomalies Feb 19th into Feb 21st, primarily above normal anomalies Feb 22nd thru Feb 24th.

 

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So we have a strengthening SPV, and nothing notable to disrupt it in terms of strat hits or warming events. We have the NINA leftovers and MJO forcing nowhere to be found. With the effects of the SSW waning, is Winter likely pretty much over? 

Seems premature to offer that on February 13th, but there is not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel, other than increasing sun. The longer days have become quite noticeable. I'll miss the snowpack, but after an awesome stretch these last couple of weeks, I consider my thirst for Winter snow and cold satiated.

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7 hours ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

So we have a strengthening SPV, and nothing notable to disrupt it in terms of strat hits or warming events. We have the NINA leftovers and MJO forcing nowhere to be found. With the effects of the SSW waning, is Winter likely pretty much over? 

Seems premature to offer that on February 13th, but there is not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel, other than increasing sun. The longer days have become quite noticeable. I'll miss the snowpack, but after an awesome stretch these last couple of weeks, I consider my thirst for Winter snow and cold satiated.

Stronger MJO would produce Strat hits and stronger waves by themselves would produce cold shots. In the absence of that the background state is or has been +EPO/-NAO/+PNA. That gets to be a harder base to get something going as we head deeper into March. There is always transitory moments, but not as easy or easier as it has been these past two weeks.

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On 2/13/2021 at 9:04 PM, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

Thanks Tony. Can't say that I understand the MJO all that well, but am I right in saying the closer the guidance is to the COD, the weaker the signal. If true, seems we have not had much strength during most of the Winter. Is there something that you see that could make that change?

That is true. It is convection itself firing. Why some seasons it is stronger than others, I am sure there is a reason, but I don't know why.  Apologies I just saw this now.

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00z/17th Ensemble Comparison 2/17-3/4.  Avg normal 850mb temp -3C. 

+EPO/+NAO Relaxation/ Switch or colder at end of month?

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 12; PNA Day 11; AO Day 12

Recent Verification Tendency: All more positive

GEFS:  (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (day longer) below normal anomalies late Feb 19th into Feb 22nd, (about same) above to near normal anomalies Feb 22nd & 23rd, (same) below normal anomalies Feb 24th, (day later, but longer) above normal anomalies Feb 25th into Mar 3rd, below normal anomalies, night of Mar 3rd, near normal anomalies Mar 4th (end of run).   

GEPS: (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th into Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies later Feb 19th through Feb 23rd, (shorter) above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb  25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th & Mar 1st, below normal anomalies Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th (end of run). 

EPS: (2 days shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies Feb 20th thru Feb 22nd, (colder) near normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb 25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th thru Mar 3rd (end of run).

 

NAEFS Week 2: Week of February 25th-March 4th. Low confidence of above normal temperatures, up/down conflicts.  It is the lowest warm confidence of last couple of days.  

 

Teleconnections:  

EPS:    +EPO, neutralish 2/26-2/28;  -PNA; +NAO to 2/27 (4 days later) neutral 2/28-3/3.    

GEPS:  +EPO;   -PNA; +NAO to 2/26 (4 days day later), neutral 2/27-3/4

GEFS:  +EPO thru 2/24 (same), neg 2/25-2/26 (shorter), neutral 2/27-3/4

            -PNA 2/15-2/28; +NAO 2/14-2/25 (3 days later), neg 2/26-3/4

            (CPC site has more positive looking PNA & NAO) 

WPO positive all ensembles

 

MJO:  (WH Sectors) vel potential phase 8  Strongest convection split Phase 5 & 8 

GEFS & EPS Phase 7, loops(?) back to Phase 7 (3/3). 

MVentrice Phase 1, Phase 3 at end.    

MJO phases in Feb: 4 thru 7 warm,  8 thru 3 cold.

                      in Mar  1, 4, 6 & 7 warm;   2 & 3, 5, 8 cold

 

Strat: NASA Wave 1 50th percentile falls off the cliff to 1st Percentile. Wave 2 oscillating between 20th & 40th percentile.  EC similar NASA followed with the fall off the cliff for Wave 1.

NAM/SPV:  GFS SPV recovering to above normal today and staying stronger than normal. Trop induced cold shot around 3/1?

 

It sure looks like a whole lot of nothing after tomorrow's storm.  +EPO/+NAO points to pattern relaxation over the next 7 to 10 days.  GEFS is just odd with warmest anomalies but coldest teleconnections in week 2.  No help from strat or wave 1,2.  We will see if EPO buckling occurs, it does not look like any cold extremes and with the EPO/NAO configuration warmer upside surprises more likely than colder.  MJO has been a non player as far as I can tell.

 

00z/13th Ensemble Comparison 2/13-2/28.  Avg normal 850mb temp -4C. 

GEFS:  (two days longer) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 16th, below normal anomalies night of Feb 16th, above normal anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (day shorter) below normal anomalies Feb 20th into Feb 21st, (shorter) above normal anomalies Feb 21st into Feb 22nd, below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th into Feb 28th (end of run).   

GEPS: (180 warmer change) Above normal anomalies into Feb 16th, (180 degree change) above normal anomalies Feb 17th thru Feb 19th, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 20th, (day later) above normal anomalies Feb 21st & 22nd, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th into Feb 28th (end of run). 

EPS: (2 days shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Feb 16th,(4 days shorter) below normal anomalies Feb 17th, above normal anomalies Feb 18th & 19th, (new) below normal anomalies Feb 20th & Feb 21st, (same) primarily above normal anomalies Feb 22nd thru Feb 27th (end of run).

 

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On 2/13/2021 at 11:58 AM, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

So we have a strengthening SPV, and nothing notable to disrupt it in terms of strat hits or warming events. We have the NINA leftovers and MJO forcing nowhere to be found. With the effects of the SSW waning, is Winter likely pretty much over? 

Seems premature to offer that on February 13th, but there is not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel, other than increasing sun. The longer days have become quite noticeable. I'll miss the snowpack, but after an awesome stretch these last couple of weeks, I consider my thirst for Winter snow and cold satiated.

The mjo forcing though has been there, it's the reason IMO why the pacific pattern has been pretty blah this year without any good sustained pna spikes or -epo bouts except for this last one. Have to be careful with those RMM plots because if you have multiple forcings signals, say one in the IO and another in phase 7 it will just COD or show it as very weak because it's caught in between the forcing signals. You can see off the OLR map here, we have had a clear cut nina mjo base state with it being stuck in phases 3-6 since september. The latest MJO robust wave was a break in the pattern which could of been a by product of the ssw. Can see the strongest signal was near the dateline. 

 

 

 

tlon_olr_full.gif.5c9a61f6bd0df784b32ab973677bac3e.gif

 

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So I want to open this up for debate. For our winter storms that have hit the area which was the bigger impact here? Was it the pacific side of things +pna/-epo or the atlantic side, -nao. To me it was the pacific that really molded the threat but the atlantic helped enforce it. So lets look at our storms as a whole.

This is the mid dec storm h5 loocompday.Pt1H9sTm71.gif.08227a470964d2083b574b8c7074ce5d.gifcompday.nqOtxhO5Gx.gif.7c970a22b416461e69392ceaeea8299f.gif

compday.aKKu_IodFb.gif.c403ac3521005b8723eca924ba019ea3.gif

So leading up to the mid dec storm we had a +pna/-epo couplet form which dumped the first good cold shot south into the US. With -epo's you get a lot of those tombo man highs coming south out of Canada then sliding across the northern tier. This is what happened with this storm. We had a rainstorm 3 or 4 days prior which became the 50/50 low then the +pna/-epo brought the cold south and the big high for the dec system to attack.  So of we didn't have the -epo/+pna couplet would we of had the cold to give us that winter storm? The -nao for this storm was slightly negative and displaced further north. I remember we were sweating it out because the 50/50 low was trending towards moving out faster the closer we got. To me in this setup, without the pac help of delivering the cold south, you wouldn't of had that winter storm. Imagine the flow without a -epo/+pna

Next system was jan 31-feb 2

h5 look

compday.eucTLOf5t7.gif.191a4f3c8b8824fd29dcca92770e3679.gif

compday.B3BvqUA0Sp.gif.d770c838baf1132e039431ddf73da826.gif

This one had a textbook west base -nao here with 50/50 low caught under the block. We can also see the perfectly placed  ridge out west. We know what the end result here was. No doubt the -nao played a huge role here. Without the +pna there, would we of had the amplification to bring the storm northward? You can also argue, without the -nao you wouldn't of had the storm cut off and stall off the nj coast. So both are important there, maybe a push?

lastly, we go the whole period from feb 3- to right now. 

h5 look

compday.2tzzibfSCe.gif.dfd463cba30359f02167d6f270d8cfbe.gif

Can see again the west base -nao signal there -epo and a bit of a -pna. To me, without the -epo you would of never had the cold for the 3 snow storms we had after the big jan 31-feb 2nd event. That thermal gradient of the big cold pressing with the tpv south and the -pna signal causing the se ridge you wouldn't of had that gradient for storms to fire along

So I guess bottom line here is IMO. The pacific sets everything up, does all the man work, but the Atlantic is the finisher. Can't finish anything if there is no setup prior. I just look at all of the snow events prior and see that the pacific was the purpose for the cold coming which is needed for snow. You can snow in a good pacific pattern and a crap atlantic. It's much harder to snow with a crap pacific pattern and a good atlantic.  Hence 13/14 and 14/15. Terrible atlantic patterns but the pacific was money. The pacific feeds the airmasses for the atlantic to block in. 

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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

So I want to open this up for debate. For our winter storms that have hit the area which was the bigger impact here? Was it the pacific side of things +pna/-epo or the atlantic side, -nao. To me it was the pacific that really molded the threat but the atlantic helped enforce it. So lets look at our storms as a whole.

This is the mid dec storm h5 loocompday.Pt1H9sTm71.gif.08227a470964d2083b574b8c7074ce5d.gifcompday.nqOtxhO5Gx.gif.7c970a22b416461e69392ceaeea8299f.gif

compday.aKKu_IodFb.gif.c403ac3521005b8723eca924ba019ea3.gif

So leading up to the mid dec storm we had a +pna/-epo couplet form which dumped the first good cold shot south into the US. With -epo's you get a lot of those tombo man highs coming south out of Canada then sliding across the northern tier. This is what happened with this storm. We had a rainstorm 3 or 4 days prior which became the 50/50 low then the +pna/-epo brought the cold south and the big high for the dec system to attack.  So of we didn't have the -epo/+pna couplet would we of had the cold to give us that winter storm? The -nao for this storm was slightly negative and displaced further north. I remember we were sweating it out because the 50/50 low was trending towards moving out faster the closer we got. To me in this setup, without the pac help of delivering the cold south, you wouldn't of had that winter storm. Imagine the flow without a -epo/+pna

Next system was jan 31-feb 2

h5 look

compday.eucTLOf5t7.gif.191a4f3c8b8824fd29dcca92770e3679.gif

compday.B3BvqUA0Sp.gif.d770c838baf1132e039431ddf73da826.gif

This one had a textbook west base -nao here with 50/50 low caught under the block. We can also see the perfectly placed  ridge out west. We know what the end result here was. No doubt the -nao played a huge role here. Without the +pna there, would we of had the amplification to bring the storm northward? You can also argue, without the -nao you wouldn't of had the storm cut off and stall off the nj coast. So both are important there, maybe a push?

lastly, we go the whole period from feb 3- to right now. 

h5 look

compday.2tzzibfSCe.gif.dfd463cba30359f02167d6f270d8cfbe.gif

Can see again the west base -nao signal there -epo and a bit of a -pna. To me, without the -epo you would of never had the cold for the 3 snow storms we had after the big jan 31-feb 2nd event. That thermal gradient of the big cold pressing with the tpv south and the -pna signal causing the se ridge you wouldn't of had that gradient for storms to fire along

So I guess bottom line here is IMO. The pacific sets everything up, does all the man work, but the Atlantic is the finisher. Can't finish anything if there is no setup prior. I just look at all of the snow events prior and see that the pacific was the purpose for the cold coming which is needed for snow. You can snow in a good pacific pattern and a crap atlantic. It's much harder to snow with a crap pacific pattern and a good atlantic.  Hence 13/14 and 14/15. Terrible atlantic patterns but the pacific was money. The pacific feeds the airmasses for the atlantic to block in. 

Not sure if there's too much to debate, great analysis. I'm sure if I dug and dug I might find a Philly snowstorm that had a bad Pacific and good Atlantic pattern, but like you said that would probably be the exception and not the norm. And the all-time historic storms may have cooperation from both sides.

Been meaning to read more into Kocin and Uccelini's famous book of winter storms. I wonder if their analysis agrees with you.

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Beyond the shot at something next weekend,  Eps, Gefs, and Geps put AN heights and 850's over us thru the end of their runs. With that kind of support,  it's hard to make a case against feeling like spring come March. IF that pattern holds,  it's flukesville for snow chances. 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

So I want to open this up for debate. For our winter storms that have hit the area which was the bigger impact here? Was it the pacific side of things +pna/-epo or the atlantic side, -nao. To me it was the pacific that really molded the threat but the atlantic helped enforce it. So lets look at our storms as a whole.

This is the mid dec storm h5 loocompday.Pt1H9sTm71.gif.08227a470964d2083b574b8c7074ce5d.gifcompday.nqOtxhO5Gx.gif.7c970a22b416461e69392ceaeea8299f.gif

compday.aKKu_IodFb.gif.c403ac3521005b8723eca924ba019ea3.gif

So leading up to the mid dec storm we had a +pna/-epo couplet form which dumped the first good cold shot south into the US. With -epo's you get a lot of those tombo man highs coming south out of Canada then sliding across the northern tier. This is what happened with this storm. We had a rainstorm 3 or 4 days prior which became the 50/50 low then the +pna/-epo brought the cold south and the big high for the dec system to attack.  So of we didn't have the -epo/+pna couplet would we of had the cold to give us that winter storm? The -nao for this storm was slightly negative and displaced further north. I remember we were sweating it out because the 50/50 low was trending towards moving out faster the closer we got. To me in this setup, without the pac help of delivering the cold south, you wouldn't of had that winter storm. Imagine the flow without a -epo/+pna

Next system was jan 31-feb 2

h5 look

compday.eucTLOf5t7.gif.191a4f3c8b8824fd29dcca92770e3679.gif

compday.B3BvqUA0Sp.gif.d770c838baf1132e039431ddf73da826.gif

This one had a textbook west base -nao here with 50/50 low caught under the block. We can also see the perfectly placed  ridge out west. We know what the end result here was. No doubt the -nao played a huge role here. Without the +pna there, would we of had the amplification to bring the storm northward? You can also argue, without the -nao you wouldn't of had the storm cut off and stall off the nj coast. So both are important there, maybe a push?

lastly, we go the whole period from feb 3- to right now. 

h5 look

compday.2tzzibfSCe.gif.dfd463cba30359f02167d6f270d8cfbe.gif

Can see again the west base -nao signal there -epo and a bit of a -pna. To me, without the -epo you would of never had the cold for the 3 snow storms we had after the big jan 31-feb 2nd event. That thermal gradient of the big cold pressing with the tpv south and the -pna signal causing the se ridge you wouldn't of had that gradient for storms to fire along

So I guess bottom line here is IMO. The pacific sets everything up, does all the man work, but the Atlantic is the finisher. Can't finish anything if there is no setup prior. I just look at all of the snow events prior and see that the pacific was the purpose for the cold coming which is needed for snow. You can snow in a good pacific pattern and a crap atlantic. It's much harder to snow with a crap pacific pattern and a good atlantic.  Hence 13/14 and 14/15. Terrible atlantic patterns but the pacific was money. The pacific feeds the airmasses for the atlantic to block in. 

I can buy that the Pacific is more important than the Atlantic, its bigger and upstream and sends cold air and storms our way. But I am greedy and like to have both oceans working for us. I would argue that we haven't had much snow below the M/D line this year because the Atlantic and Pacific haven't worked well together. I also want the Arctic on my side, and per chart below the Arctic has has been a big help. The farther south you go, the more important it is to have all 3 oceans working for you. Most important to me is 50/50 or something creating convergence in SE Canada. If I get that, with good timing,  can let some of the others slide.

gfs_nh-namindex_20210211.png

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Generally agree that the Pacific sets the table and the Atlantic allows the meal to become a feast. Don’t think you can get many monster storms with an uncooperative Atlantic to block the flow enough for big dumps, but without the PAC, the opportunities are limited as we seem to end-up fighting either PAC puke air or a SE ridge torch.

Also involved and indispensable this year was the early season weakness of the PV, which allowed for the success of the stout strat hit for December’s cold, and of course the SSW. Is the PV in a category all its own when it comes to outcomes in Winter, or to some degree a product of what’s going on in the Pacific? 
 

I haven’t seen historical records of PV strength and the impact on cold and snow, but I suspect there aren’t too many “great” snow and cold years with a PV on steroids.

So many “is it the chicken or the egg” questions with weather. Makes  it so.... interesting.

 

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Kocin & Uccelini from what I recall were very Atlantic/ NAO centric in their book. I have not read it recently  though. 
 

For the pieces to fall into place on the puzzle you need both sides co-operating. In these days of day 9 cyber blizzards and even with our feast or famine winters, the overall number of huge events is still low. Even this winter PHL has yet to reach 10” in one event and 6” just twice. 
 

I always mean to do this, but don’t get around to it. There is a disproportionate number of double digit events at PHL that have occurred with a -NAO or after a prolonged period of a -NAO even if it wasn’t a -NAO the day of. 

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00z/21st Ensemble Comparison 2/21-3/8.  Avg normal 850mb temp -3C. 

 No Smarch Start For You

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 11.5; PNA Day 11; AO Day 12

Recent Verification Tendency: All more positive, NAO strongest tendency

GEFS:  (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Feb 22nd, (about same) above normal anomalies night of Feb 22nd, (same) below normal anomalies night of Feb 23rd, (split, new cold) above normal anomalies Feb 24th, below normal anomalies Feb 25th & Feb 26th, (looks torchy) above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 2nd, near normal anomalies,Mar 3rd thru Mar 5th, above normal anomalies Mar 6th thru 8th (end of run).   

GEPS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 22nd, (shorter) above normal anomalies night of Feb 22nd, (timing overhaul here on out) below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th, below normal anomalies Feb 25th & Feb 26th, Above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 1st, below normal anomalies Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd thru Mar 8th (end of run). 

EPS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 22nd, (warmer) mainly above normal anomalies Feb 22nd into Feb 25th, (same) below normal anomalies later Feb 25th into Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 7th (end of run).

 

NAEFS Week 2: Week of March 1st-March 8th. Low confidence of above normal temperatures. Goes back/forth near normal/above last couple of days.

Will add the rest later today

 

00z/17th Ensemble Comparison 2/17-3/4.  Avg normal 850mb temp -3C. 

GEFS:  (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (day longer) below normal anomalies late Feb 19th into Feb 22nd, (about same) above to near normal anomalies Feb 22nd & 23rd, (same) below normal anomalies Feb 24th, (day later, but longer) above normal anomalies Feb 25th into Mar 3rd, below normal anomalies, night of Mar 3rd, near normal anomalies Mar 4th (end of run).   

 

GEPS: (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th into Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies later Feb 19th through Feb 23rd, (shorter) above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb  25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th & Mar 1st, below normal anomalies Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th (end of run). 

EPS: (2 days shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies Feb 20th thru Feb 22nd, (colder) near normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb 25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th thru Mar 3rd (end of run).

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00z/21st Ensemble Comparison 2/21-3/8.  Avg normal 850mb temp -3C. 

 No Smarch Start For You

GEFS Start Of Teleconnection Fcst Skill:  NAO Day 11.5; PNA Day 11; AO Day 12

Recent Verification Tendency: All more positive, NAO strongest tendency

GEFS:  (same) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies thru Feb 22nd, (about same) above normal anomalies night of Feb 22nd, (same) below normal anomalies night of Feb 23rd, (split, new cold) above normal anomalies Feb 24th, below normal anomalies Feb 25th & Feb 26th, (looks torchy) above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 2nd, near normal anomalies,Mar 3rd thru Mar 5th, above normal anomalies Mar 6th thru 8th (end of run).   

GEPS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 22nd, (shorter) above normal anomalies night of Feb 22nd, (timing overhaul here on out) below normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th, below normal anomalies Feb 25th & Feb 26th, Above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 1st, below normal anomalies Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd thru Mar 8th (end of run). 

EPS: (shorter) Below normal 850mb temp anomalies into Feb 22nd, (warmer) mainly above normal anomalies Feb 22nd into Feb 25th, (same) below normal anomalies later Feb 25th into Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 27th thru Mar 7th (end of run).

NAEFS Week 2: Week of March 1st-March 8th. Low confidence of above normal temperatures. Goes back/forth near normal/above last couple of days.

 

Teleconnections:  

EPS:    +EPO, neutralish 2/24 & 2/27;  -PNA;

             +NAO to 3/3 (4 days later again) neutral 3/4-3/7.    

GEPS:  +EPO, neutralish 2/24 & 2/27;   -PNA;  +NAO (no neutral phase any longer)

GEFS:  +EPO; neg 2/23 & 2/26, lost neutrality after

             -PNA 2/15-2/28; +NAO  to 3/5 (8 days later), neg 3/6-3/8

            (CPC site has more positive looking PNA & NAO) 

WPO positive all ensembles

 

MJO:  (WH Sectors) vel potential phase 7 & 1.  Strongest convection split Phase 5 & 1 

GEFS & EPS Phase 7, loops back to Phase 7 or phase 8 (two days old, ends 3/5). 

MVentrice Phase 1, Phase 2 & 7 split at end.  What a mess.    

MJO phases in Feb: 4 thru 7 warm,  8 thru 3 cold.

                      in Mar  1, 4, 6 & 7 warm;   2 & 3, 5, 8 cold

 

Strat: NASA falling Wave 1 goes down to near zero before rebounding to 10th percentile. Wave 2 oscillating around 30th percentile.  EC very similar to NASA.

NAM/SPV:  GFS SPV Stronger than normal and outlooked to stay that way.

 

If I remember, I will look at CPC's MJO weekly briefing tomorrow because I have never recalled this much of a disheveled look.  If Convection makes the man (it does), then we are in an active warm phase in spite of what the outlooks are showing.  Where we go from here, if phase 5 is staying convectively active without any vel potential assistance.  Not sure if Indian Ocean will also fire which are cold phases for March. Either way, we are not there yet.  As for other teleconnections, the EPO drops would support two cold shots into NOAM & CONUS once March so just like full boar cold, the full boar warm should not be right. Either way with the NAO positive (exit north for cold?), any cold shots do not look sustainable and I guess we are setting up for a lousy April stretch (otherwise known as spring) once the SPV collapses once and for all.      

 

 

00z/17th Ensemble Comparison 2/17-3/4.  Avg normal 850mb temp -3C. 

GEFS:  (same) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (day longer) below normal anomalies late Feb 19th into Feb 22nd, (about same) above to near normal anomalies Feb 22nd & 23rd, (same) below normal anomalies Feb 24th, (day later, but longer) above normal anomalies Feb 25th into Mar 3rd, below normal anomalies, night of Mar 3rd, near normal anomalies Mar 4th (end of run).   

 

GEPS: (shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th into Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies later Feb 19th through Feb 23rd, (shorter) above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb  25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th & Mar 1st, below normal anomalies Mar 2nd, above normal anomalies Mar 3rd & Mar 4th (end of run). 

EPS: (2 days shorter) Above normal 850mb temp anomalies Feb 18th & Feb 19th, (longer) below normal anomalies Feb 20th thru Feb 22nd, (colder) near normal anomalies Feb 23rd, above normal anomalies Feb 24th & Feb 25th, below normal anomalies Feb 26th & Feb 27th, above normal anomalies Feb 28th thru Mar 3rd (end of run).

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

D6---->D10 on last nights EPS. Relaxation period and then NAO- returns. D10 looks a bit like January with a nice Atlantic but a marginal air mass.

epstrend2_23_00.gif

A marginal air mass. Where have I heard that before? I'm sure that this time it'll be all snow.

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18 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The D 8-14 depicts SE warmth and us as a bubble of normal precipitation bordered by what I presume to be Cutterville.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php

Couple of March's in there with some hits in the Mid Atlantic. I'd prefer a slow moving bowling ball if I had my druthers, or maybe a surprise 3/84 again. I know Phl got nailed with that one, and BWI did OK considering it was March with around 4"+.

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6 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

Couple of March's in there with some hits in the Mid Atlantic. I'd prefer a slow moving bowling ball if I had my druthers, or maybe a surprise 3/84 again. I know Phl got nailed with that one, and BWI did OK considering it was March with around 4"+.

7-8" across Philly metro, nothing crazy but a solid event. Big cold just before, during & after the storm, doesn't look like we'll anything close to that next week. Overall the 5th coldest MAR on record at Philly.

then again there's always the GFS to keep hope alive

gfs_T2m_neus_29.png.ea4266cb22cf4b6e490f6490387595f8.png

 

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