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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Oh and others are Noah's ark rainstorms

1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Right now that may be one of the ways we snow. The 6z op gfs wasn’t far from showing the same evolution. Basically the para let’s the northern branch track east first which dampens the heights for the southern. It leaves energy behind. I have no hope of it happening though this winter. What an annoying month 

As of now thats one way to flatten heights and get precip in before thermals go to waste.  Some of the gefs also do it with 50/50 lows farther west...

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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

Posted Images

The snow we are getting on GEFS through day 10 hasn't changed much and 06z actually improved slightly.  Below is the gefs D7 surface map trend - not bad at 06z vs 00z. Had been slowing but sped up a bit.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh192_trend.gif

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The snow we are getting on GEFS hasn't changed much and 06z actually improved slightly. Think euro/eps was too optimistic. Below is the gefs D7 surface map trend - not bad at 06z.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh192_trend.gif

Do you have individual snowfall? Curious how many show the two part scenario like the para

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13 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Do you have individual snowfall? Curious how many show the two part scenario like the para

Both Gfs' have been speeding up the first rainer wave. I think that's the first thing we root for if the trailing wave idea has a shot.

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17 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Just another run and different solution. Till things start locking in take each op run as meh. Just keep going with ens 

just going to keep bumping this till we get inside 7 days

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30 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Both Gfs' have been speeding up the first rainer wave. I think that's the first thing we root for if the trailing wave idea has a shot.

Speeding up is probably good. If rainer wave gets fast enough wouldn't be a rainer.

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I don't trust these off hour runs because they have been a bit funny sometimes, but 6z eps went towards a flatter look with lower hgts just north of the lakes not as much energy digging out west. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I don't trust these off hour runs because they have been a bit funny sometimes, but 6z eps went towards a flatter look with lower hgts just north of the lakes not as much energy digging out west. 

Same with 06 gefs, a hopeful sign, but as you say could be a head fake.

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22 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Models have been over-phasing this winter. Again I'm going to blame Nina, multiple fast waves, tough for models to handle.

Yea we’ve had a lot of shortwaves do tha leave energy behind thing. The first December event for NE originated that way. The New Years storm. Regardless id still favor out a sheared mess for this. Long way to go. It’s just hard to have faith with how things have gone recently.  

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