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Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond) II


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Since he has no image in his avatar I vote for this:

Are we still talking about weather?

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Say it with me... model Volatility

 

what a monster storm . Get that pv to dig a bit and boom. But you can see in this run how far south the secondary wants to redevelop- down south. 

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Keep an eye on that Friday system still. Models are now bringing that energy out of the southwest instead of burying it. Euro did last night at 0z. Here’s the Ukmet at the end so usual caveats since it’s been jumpy. Not sure if thermals are good on ukie. Would think could be some warmth 

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1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Btw, GEFS for next Thursday look more liquid than white: 

 

 

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Yea it’s kind of two fold. Stronger storm brings in more se ridging to rot bl and mid levels. 

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That being said, despite possible warmish look with se ridge and no high. The gfs family would be the last thing I’d look at for thermals 

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Keep an eye on that Friday system still. Models are now bringing that energy out of the southwest instead of burying it. Euro did last night at 0z. Here’s the Ukmet at the end so usual caveats since it’s been jumpy. Not sure if thermals are good on ukie. Would think could be some warmth 

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Big precip producer on Ukie but front end snow is meager.

 

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Just now, Mitchnick said:

Big precip producer on Ukie but front end snow is meager.

 

sn10_acc.us_state_pa (1).png

That’s not from the big slug of precip. That’s from a weak northern stream wave that pushes through 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s not from the big slug of precip. That’s from a weak northern stream wave that pushes through 

Also as stated ukie at the end had been pretty crappy 

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I chose the wrong off day to take a nap during the 12z run, wow what an awesome turn around. Models moving that first SW piece faster helps spacing issues. What an epic beast on the GFS! CMC agrees a bit with the phase of the NS day 9-10 but is a little messier and warmer...also has a light event earlier.

 

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You can see the signal for the some of the gefs trying to eject that energy from out west like the op did. Notice the lower heights over the Ohio valley compared to the 6z gefs.

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As far as the day 8-10th threat, we would ideally like to see that tpv lobe dig further south. While we have a solid block, that can cause a primary to cut , head further north than we would like to see if it partially phases..(kinda what the gfs op showed.) the block will cause redevelopment pretty far south, but that primary can hold on longer.*

 

can see the split camps on the gefs 

86E4FDC3-7284-44B0-9166-E2E7B93E1749.png

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19 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

You can see the signal for the some of the gefs trying to eject that energy from out west like the op did. Notice the lower heights over the Ohio valley compared to the 6z gefs.

71876163-EBE4-4C5E-8FD0-D4A9428951DF.png

Gefs look great at this lead time.  Strong signal 

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Too much ridging and the that ULL in south central Canada looks like it is trying to rotate west like yesterday’s 12z, at this range doesn’t matter just saying...could be saved of a disturbance at the front of trough rides east ahead of base

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