susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Oh man. I am back. What a beast. Best 6 hours in a while Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, susqushawn said: Oh man. I am back. What a beast. Best 6 hours in a while 🌭 4 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, susqushawn said: 🌭 5 bunner more like 5 Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Say it with me... model Volatility what a monster storm . Get that pv to dig a bit and boom. But you can see in this run how far south the secondary wants to redevelop- down south. Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Btw, GEFS for next Thursday look more liquid than white: Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 Keep an eye on that Friday system still. Models are now bringing that energy out of the southwest instead of burying it. Euro did last night at 0z. Here’s the Ukmet at the end so usual caveats since it’s been jumpy. Not sure if thermals are good on ukie. Would think could be some warmth Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, irishbri74 said: Btw, GEFS for next Thursday look more liquid than white: Yea it’s kind of two fold. Stronger storm brings in more se ridging to rot bl and mid levels. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 That being said, despite possible warmish look with se ridge and no high. The gfs family would be the last thing I’d look at for thermals Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 674 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Keep an eye on that Friday system still. Models are now bringing that energy out of the southwest instead of burying it. Euro did last night at 0z. Here’s the Ukmet at the end so usual caveats since it’s been jumpy. Not sure if thermals are good on ukie. Would think could be some warmth Big precip producer on Ukie but front end snow is meager. Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Mitchnick said: Big precip producer on Ukie but front end snow is meager. That’s not from the big slug of precip. That’s from a weak northern stream wave that pushes through Link to post Share on other sites
tombo82685 14,166 Posted January 16 Author Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That’s not from the big slug of precip. That’s from a weak northern stream wave that pushes through Also as stated ukie at the end had been pretty crappy Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I chose the wrong off day to take a nap during the 12z run, wow what an awesome turn around. Models moving that first SW piece faster helps spacing issues. What an epic beast on the GFS! CMC agrees a bit with the phase of the NS day 9-10 but is a little messier and warmer...also has a light event earlier. Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 You can see the signal for the some of the gefs trying to eject that energy from out west like the op did. Notice the lower heights over the Ohio valley compared to the 6z gefs. Link to post Share on other sites
irishbri74 3,864 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 As far as the day 8-10th threat, we would ideally like to see that tpv lobe dig further south. While we have a solid block, that can cause a primary to cut , head further north than we would like to see if it partially phases..(kinda what the gfs op showed.) the block will cause redevelopment pretty far south, but that primary can hold on longer.* can see the split camps on the gefs Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 674 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Also as stated ukie at the end had been pretty crappy Not pretty at all, just crappy really. Link to post Share on other sites
susqushawn 3,281 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: You can see the signal for the some of the gefs trying to eject that energy from out west like the op did. Notice the lower heights over the Ohio valley compared to the 6z gefs. Gefs look great at this lead time. Strong signal Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 12z euro 162. We’ll see if the energy in southwest will come east and how it interacts with the NS Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 180, It’s definitely farther east this run so far so it’ll likely come east, Not in love with that ridging out ahead of it. Gfs had a flatter ridge and a better confluence setup Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Too much ridging and the that ULL in south central Canada looks like it is trying to rotate west like yesterday’s 12z, at this range doesn’t matter just saying...could be saved of a disturbance at the front of trough rides east ahead of base Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 50/50 trying to rotate a back door shortwave to hold the confluence. Well see. Probably get some front end but ridge is pretty rough due to that other ULL not influencing it Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Timing might work out here (I know it’s 8-10 days), but that 50/50 back door shortwave is gonna save the day here potentially. I was worried about that ridging but block is def helping Link to post Share on other sites
Mitchnick 674 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Idk Heisy, pretty impressive flow along the east coast from the north still at 210 hrs 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Incoming... Yep Mitch the block saved us this time lol. Pure paranoia Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Nice CAD. Shortwave weakening a touch, but great runs today! I’ll let the pros take over Link to post Share on other sites
Heisenberg 1,621 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 It’s a S PA, VA, MD, S NJ, etc classic moderate snowstorm This run. Great to see at this range! Link to post Share on other sites
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